{
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "descriptive_only": true,
 "method": "Per game, order score ticks by (game-clock, ts); a margin threshold's point of no return is the first tick from which |home_score-away_score| stays >= threshold to the end. Reads only the score path, not model/market prob.",
 "floors": {
  "min_ticks_per_game": 10,
  "min_games_per_threshold": 10,
  "note": "declared once, not tuned to output; a (sport,threshold) cell below the game floor keeps its n but is masked from chart + headline."
 },
 "prior_art": "Descriptive 'point of no return' / clinch-time measurement, in the tradition of safe-lead heuristics (e.g. Bill James NBA safe-lead) and win-probability clinch points. Not a new method; do not claim first-ever.",
 "sports": {
  "mlb": {
   "unit": "runs",
   "clock_field": "inning",
   "n_games_raw": 178,
   "n_games_usable": 174,
   "min_ticks_floor": 10,
   "thresholds": [
    {
     "threshold": 2,
     "n_games_total": 174,
     "n_games_decided": 130,
     "decided_frac_of_games": 0.7471,
     "masked_below_floor": false,
     "decided_clock_median": 5.0,
     "decided_clock_p25": 3.5,
     "decided_clock_p75": 7.0,
     "decided_clock_mean": 5.185,
     "decided_clockfrac_median": 0.6283,
     "decided_clockfrac_p25": 0.4211,
     "decided_clockfrac_p75": 0.8333
    },
    {
     "threshold": 3,
     "n_games_total": 174,
     "n_games_decided": 97,
     "decided_frac_of_games": 0.5575,
     "masked_below_floor": false,
     "decided_clock_median": 6.0,
     "decided_clock_p25": 4.0,
     "decided_clock_p75": 7.5,
     "decided_clock_mean": 5.711,
     "decided_clockfrac_median": 0.7368,
     "decided_clockfrac_p25": 0.5,
     "decided_clockfrac_p75": 0.8889
    },
    {
     "threshold": 4,
     "n_games_total": 174,
     "n_games_decided": 74,
     "decided_frac_of_games": 0.4253,
     "masked_below_floor": false,
     "decided_clock_median": 6.5,
     "decided_clock_p25": 4.125,
     "decided_clock_p75": 7.5,
     "decided_clock_mean": 5.892,
     "decided_clockfrac_median": 0.8153,
     "decided_clockfrac_p25": 0.5647,
     "decided_clockfrac_p75": 0.9286
    },
    {
     "threshold": 5,
     "n_games_total": 174,
     "n_games_decided": 55,
     "decided_frac_of_games": 0.3161,
     "masked_below_floor": false,
     "decided_clock_median": 6.0,
     "decided_clock_p25": 4.0,
     "decided_clock_p75": 7.5,
     "decided_clock_mean": 5.8,
     "decided_clockfrac_median": 0.8182,
     "decided_clockfrac_p25": 0.5941,
     "decided_clockfrac_p75": 0.9375
    }
   ]
  },
  "soccer_intl": {
   "unit": "goals",
   "clock_field": "minute",
   "n_games_raw": 27,
   "n_games_usable": 26,
   "min_ticks_floor": 10,
   "thresholds": [
    {
     "threshold": 1,
     "n_games_total": 26,
     "n_games_decided": 12,
     "decided_frac_of_games": 0.4615,
     "masked_below_floor": false,
     "decided_clock_median": 37.0,
     "decided_clock_p25": 21.25,
     "decided_clock_p75": 53.5,
     "decided_clock_mean": 40.25,
     "decided_clockfrac_median": 0.5994,
     "decided_clockfrac_p25": 0.363,
     "decided_clockfrac_p75": 0.9201
    },
    {
     "threshold": 2,
     "n_games_total": 26,
     "n_games_decided": 3,
     "decided_frac_of_games": 0.1154,
     "masked_below_floor": true
    },
    {
     "threshold": 3,
     "n_games_total": 26,
     "n_games_decided": 0,
     "decided_frac_of_games": 0.0,
     "masked_below_floor": true
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "skipped": [
  {
   "sport": "mlb_clean",
   "reason": "byte-identical duplicate of mlb (per state_conditioned_calibration); not loaded"
  }
 ],
 "story": "mlb (174 games): a 2-runs gap becomes permanent by median inning 5.0 in 75% of games; a 5-runs gap becomes permanent by median inning 6.0 in 32% of games -- later and rarer as the gap grows. soccer_intl (26 games): a 1-goals gap becomes permanent by median minute 37.0 in 46% of games (only threshold above floor). Descriptive game-flow only; no advantage/return/money claim.",
 "plot_written": true,
 "as_of": "2026-09-17",
 "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}