{
  "edge_claimed": false,
  "descriptive_only": true,
  "method": "standard BSS = 1 - Brier/Brier_ref; refs = climatology (const sport base rate) and market",
  "floors": "n>=30 rows/grain for a BSS; climatology=const sport base rate; edge_claimed=False",
  "source_artifact": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb,soccer_intl}/*.jsonl (mlb_clean dup excluded)",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-16T22:17:01.245611+00:00",
  "honest_note": "BSS vs market is near or below 0 across sports and checkpoints -- the model does not beat the closing reference forecast's Brier. That null result is the POINT of this exhibit, not a defect. BSS vs climatology is strongly positive (model and market both crush the base-rate baseline), which is expected for in-game win-prob and is NOT an advantage. Truth source: docs/JOB_EVIDENCE_PACKET.md.",
  "sports": {
    "mlb": {
      "n_rows": 27351,
      "sport_base_rate": 0.4897,
      "climatology_ref": "constant sport-level base rate (unconditional P(outcome=1))",
      "grains": {
        "all": {
          "n": 27351,
          "base_rate": 0.4897,
          "brier_model": 0.166759,
          "brier_market": 0.151008,
          "brier_clim": 0.249895,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": 0.3327,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": 0.3957,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.1043
        },
        "early(inn1-3)": {
          "n": 9489,
          "base_rate": 0.5077,
          "brier_model": 0.230077,
          "brier_market": 0.207874,
          "brier_clim": 0.250264,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": 0.0807,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": 0.1694,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.1068
        },
        "mid(inn4-6)": {
          "n": 9752,
          "base_rate": 0.5107,
          "brier_model": 0.153868,
          "brier_market": 0.138203,
          "brier_clim": 0.250324,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": 0.3853,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": 0.4479,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.1133
        },
        "late(inn7+)": {
          "n": 7442,
          "base_rate": 0.4665,
          "brier_model": 0.094548,
          "brier_market": 0.086598,
          "brier_clim": 0.249419,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": 0.6209,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": 0.6528,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.0918
        }
      }
    },
    "soccer_intl": {
      "n_rows": 4265,
      "sport_base_rate": 0.6911,
      "climatology_ref": "constant sport-level base rate (unconditional P(outcome=1))",
      "grains": {
        "all": {
          "n": 4265,
          "base_rate": 0.6911,
          "brier_model": 0.332522,
          "brier_market": 0.195157,
          "brier_clim": 0.179077,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": -0.8569,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": -0.0898,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.7039
        },
        "0-15": {
          "n": 566,
          "base_rate": 0.6837,
          "brier_model": 0.267653,
          "brier_market": 0.123304,
          "brier_clim": 0.199507,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": -0.3416,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": 0.382,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -1.1707
        },
        "15-30": {
          "n": 595,
          "base_rate": 0.6983,
          "brier_model": 0.278872,
          "brier_market": 0.140209,
          "brier_clim": 0.188453,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": -0.4798,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": 0.256,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.989
        },
        "30-45": {
          "n": 554,
          "base_rate": 0.685,
          "brier_model": 0.303419,
          "brier_market": 0.166302,
          "brier_clim": 0.193693,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": -0.5665,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": 0.1414,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.8245
        },
        "45-60": {
          "n": 783,
          "base_rate": 0.6284,
          "brier_model": 0.309355,
          "brier_market": 0.186015,
          "brier_clim": 0.208087,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": -0.4867,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": 0.1061,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.6631
        },
        "60-75": {
          "n": 495,
          "base_rate": 0.6646,
          "brier_model": 0.382516,
          "brier_market": 0.260446,
          "brier_clim": 0.183187,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": -1.0881,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": -0.4217,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.4687
        },
        "75-90+": {
          "n": 390,
          "base_rate": 0.5859,
          "brier_model": 0.409424,
          "brier_market": 0.245001,
          "brier_clim": 0.200482,
          "below_floor": false,
          "bss_model_vs_clim": -1.0422,
          "bss_market_vs_clim": -0.2221,
          "bss_model_vs_market": -0.6711
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "verdict": "mlb: BSS(model vs market) in [-0.113, -0.092] -- model does not beat the closing reference forecast; BSS(model vs climatology) in [+0.081, +0.621] (BSS>0 means it beats that baseline). soccer_intl: BSS(model vs market) in [-1.171, -0.469] -- model does not beat the closing reference forecast; BSS(model vs climatology) in [-1.088, -0.342] (BSS>0 means it beats that baseline).",
  "plot_written": true,
  "as_of": "2026-09-16",
  "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}