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  "descriptive_only": true,
  "seed": 20260722,
  "n_boot": 1000,
  "ci_pct": [
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  "cluster_unit": "game_id",
  "min_games_per_bin_floor": 5,
  "method": "cluster bootstrap (resample game_id with replacement, re-bin) on 10-bin reliability curves",
  "source_artifact": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb,soccer_intl}",
  "as_of": "2026-09-16",
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            }
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    "soccer_intl": {
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              "significant": true,
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        "market_prob": {
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          "n_eligible_bins": 9,
          "n_significant_bins": 7,
          "n_within_noise_bins": 2,
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              "significant": false,
              "low_n": false
            },
            {
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              "significant": true,
              "low_n": false
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            {
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              "significant": true,
              "low_n": false
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            {
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              "n_games": 12,
              "mean_p": 0.5559,
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                0.6246,
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              ],
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                0.0772,
                0.4475
              ],
              "significant": true,
              "low_n": false
            },
            {
              "bin_lo": 0.6,
              "bin_hi": 0.7,
              "n": 223,
              "n_games": 9,
              "mean_p": 0.6506,
              "mean_y": 1.0,
              "gap": 0.3494,
              "mean_y_ci": [
                1.0,
                1.0
              ],
              "gap_ci": [
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                0.372
              ],
              "significant": true,
              "low_n": false
            },
            {
              "bin_lo": 0.7,
              "bin_hi": 0.8,
              "n": 271,
              "n_games": 9,
              "mean_p": 0.7189,
              "mean_y": 0.9889,
              "gap": 0.2701,
              "mean_y_ci": [
                0.9323,
                1.0
              ],
              "gap_ci": [
                0.2083,
                0.2896
              ],
              "significant": true,
              "low_n": false
            },
            {
              "bin_lo": 0.8,
              "bin_hi": 0.9,
              "n": 474,
              "n_games": 10,
              "mean_p": 0.8578,
              "mean_y": 1.0,
              "gap": 0.1422,
              "mean_y_ci": [
                1.0,
                1.0
              ],
              "gap_ci": [
                0.1208,
                0.1576
              ],
              "significant": true,
              "low_n": false
            },
            {
              "bin_lo": 0.9,
              "bin_hi": 1.0,
              "n": 143,
              "n_games": 3,
              "mean_p": 0.911,
              "mean_y": 1.0,
              "gap": 0.089,
              "mean_y_ci": [
                1.0,
                1.0
              ],
              "gap_ci": [
                0.0795,
                0.0936
              ],
              "significant": false,
              "low_n": true
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "skipped": [
    {
      "sport": "mlb_clean",
      "reason": "byte-identical duplicate of mlb corpus -- excluded to avoid double counting"
    }
  ],
  "verdict": "mlb/model: 3/10 eligible bins have a calibration-gap 95% CI that excludes 0; 7 within noise. mlb/market: 0/10 eligible bins have a calibration-gap 95% CI that excludes 0; 10 within noise. soccer_intl/model: 8/9 eligible bins have a calibration-gap 95% CI that excludes 0; 1 within noise. soccer_intl/market: 7/9 eligible bins have a calibration-gap 95% CI that excludes 0; 2 within noise. soccer_intl: only 27 games -- low power, read all bins cautiously.",
  "plot_written": true,
  "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}