{
 "status": "ok",
 "label": "DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY",
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "question": "How many pregame win-prob points is each team's top on/off player worth vs a league-average opponent (neutral site)?",
 "as_of": "2024-25 (Elo end-of-season) x 2024_25 on/off slice",
 "source_artifacts": [
  "data/models/elo_state.json",
  "data/cache/intel_claims/nba_lineup_context_claims.jsonl (nba_lineup_context_net_rating_delta_2024_25)"
 ],
 "method": {
  "rating_to_prob_curve": "repo Elo logistic 1/(1+10^(-d/400))",
  "star_rating_removed": "on_off_net_rating_delta * ELO_PER_NETRATING_POINT",
  "elo_per_netrating_point": 25.3333,
  "elo_per_netrating_point_anchor": "elo_config.ELO_HFA=76 Elo ~ 3.0-pt home advantage (76/3.0)",
  "reference_opponent_elo": 1500.0,
  "site": "neutral",
  "weights_tuned_to_output": false
 },
 "assumptions_and_floors": [
  "on/off deltas are pre-floored by the source claim (min_on>=500, n_games>=30).",
  "net-rating->Elo conversion is a single FROZEN constant, anchored to HFA, not fit.",
  "star_elo subtracted linearly from team Elo; nonlinearity of the logistic curve means the same on/off delta yields a larger win-prob swing for mid-strength teams.",
  "win prob is vs a league-average (1500) opponent on a neutral floor, NOT a real matchup."
 ],
 "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim.",
 "n_teams": 30,
 "unmatched_team_ids": [],
 "teams": [
  {
   "team_abbr": "DEN",
   "player_name": "Nikola Joki\u0107",
   "player_id": 203999,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 23.713,
   "min_on": 2570.9,
   "team_elo": 1595.42,
   "star_elo_removed": 600.7,
   "p_win_with": 0.634,
   "p_win_without": 0.0517,
   "delta_winprob": 0.5822,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "OKC",
   "player_name": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander",
   "player_id": 1628983,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 15.763,
   "min_on": 2597.7,
   "team_elo": 1722.81,
   "star_elo_removed": 399.3,
   "p_win_with": 0.7829,
   "p_win_without": 0.2658,
   "delta_winprob": 0.5171,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "LAL",
   "player_name": "Dorian Finney-Smith",
   "player_id": 1627827,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 14.944,
   "min_on": 1241.6,
   "team_elo": 1587.4,
   "star_elo_removed": 378.6,
   "p_win_with": 0.6232,
   "p_win_without": 0.1576,
   "delta_winprob": 0.4656,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "MIL",
   "player_name": "Giannis Antetokounmpo",
   "player_id": 203507,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 14.231,
   "min_on": 2288.7,
   "team_elo": 1574.69,
   "star_elo_removed": 360.5,
   "p_win_with": 0.6059,
   "p_win_without": 0.1617,
   "delta_winprob": 0.4441,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "LAC",
   "player_name": "Ivica Zubac",
   "player_id": 1627826,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 11.965,
   "min_on": 2624.4,
   "team_elo": 1607.65,
   "star_elo_removed": 303.1,
   "p_win_with": 0.6501,
   "p_win_without": 0.2451,
   "delta_winprob": 0.4051,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "IND",
   "player_name": "Pascal Siakam",
   "player_id": 1627783,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 11.457,
   "min_on": 2547.8,
   "team_elo": 1591.79,
   "star_elo_removed": 290.2,
   "p_win_with": 0.6291,
   "p_win_without": 0.2419,
   "delta_winprob": 0.3872,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "ORL",
   "player_name": "Franz Wagner",
   "player_id": 1630532,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 13.851,
   "min_on": 2023.3,
   "team_elo": 1498.46,
   "star_elo_removed": 350.9,
   "p_win_with": 0.4978,
   "p_win_without": 0.1162,
   "delta_winprob": 0.3816,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "CHI",
   "player_name": "Lonzo Ball",
   "player_id": 1628366,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 13.374,
   "min_on": 777.0,
   "team_elo": 1500.4,
   "star_elo_removed": 338.8,
   "p_win_with": 0.5006,
   "p_win_without": 0.1248,
   "delta_winprob": 0.3758,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "ATL",
   "player_name": "Mouhamed Gueye",
   "player_id": 1631243,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 13.562,
   "min_on": 532.8,
   "team_elo": 1486.18,
   "star_elo_removed": 343.6,
   "p_win_with": 0.4801,
   "p_win_without": 0.1133,
   "delta_winprob": 0.3668,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "CLE",
   "player_name": "Isaac Okoro",
   "player_id": 1630171,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.728,
   "min_on": 1053.1,
   "team_elo": 1656.82,
   "star_elo_removed": 221.1,
   "p_win_with": 0.7115,
   "p_win_without": 0.4085,
   "delta_winprob": 0.303,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "DAL",
   "player_name": "Dereck Lively II",
   "player_id": 1641726,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 9.34,
   "min_on": 832.8,
   "team_elo": 1484.26,
   "star_elo_removed": 236.6,
   "p_win_with": 0.4774,
   "p_win_without": 0.1896,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2878,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "NOP",
   "player_name": "Zion Williamson",
   "player_id": 1629627,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 15.772,
   "min_on": 857.2,
   "team_elo": 1376.36,
   "star_elo_removed": 399.6,
   "p_win_with": 0.3292,
   "p_win_without": 0.0469,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2823,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "NYK",
   "player_name": "Karl-Anthony Towns",
   "player_id": 1626157,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 7.982,
   "min_on": 2516.8,
   "team_elo": 1579.61,
   "star_elo_removed": 202.2,
   "p_win_with": 0.6126,
   "p_win_without": 0.3305,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2821,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "BOS",
   "player_name": "Luke Kornet",
   "player_id": 1628436,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.218,
   "min_on": 1357.0,
   "team_elo": 1680.37,
   "star_elo_removed": 208.2,
   "p_win_with": 0.7385,
   "p_win_without": 0.4601,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2785,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "SAS",
   "player_name": "Victor Wembanyama",
   "player_id": 1641705,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 11.135,
   "min_on": 1527.2,
   "team_elo": 1422.36,
   "star_elo_removed": 282.1,
   "p_win_with": 0.3901,
   "p_win_without": 0.112,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2781,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "MEM",
   "player_name": "Ja Morant",
   "player_id": 1629630,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.072,
   "min_on": 1519.0,
   "team_elo": 1523.76,
   "star_elo_removed": 204.5,
   "p_win_with": 0.5341,
   "p_win_without": 0.2611,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2731,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "BKN",
   "player_name": "Day'Ron Sharpe",
   "player_id": 1630549,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 14.902,
   "min_on": 909.2,
   "team_elo": 1366.71,
   "star_elo_removed": 377.5,
   "p_win_with": 0.3171,
   "p_win_without": 0.0502,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2669,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "PHX",
   "player_name": "Monte Morris",
   "player_id": 1628420,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.334,
   "min_on": 570.9,
   "team_elo": 1474.05,
   "star_elo_removed": 211.1,
   "p_win_with": 0.4627,
   "p_win_without": 0.2035,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2593,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "MIA",
   "player_name": "Davion Mitchell",
   "player_id": 1630558,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.354,
   "min_on": 947.1,
   "team_elo": 1458.53,
   "star_elo_removed": 211.6,
   "p_win_with": 0.4406,
   "p_win_without": 0.1889,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2517,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "GSW",
   "player_name": "Gui Santos",
   "player_id": 1630611,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 6.653,
   "min_on": 761.7,
   "team_elo": 1578.01,
   "star_elo_removed": 168.5,
   "p_win_with": 0.6104,
   "p_win_without": 0.3726,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2378,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "POR",
   "player_name": "Jabari Walker",
   "player_id": 1631133,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 7.676,
   "min_on": 749.1,
   "team_elo": 1459.25,
   "star_elo_removed": 194.5,
   "p_win_with": 0.4416,
   "p_win_without": 0.2052,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2364,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "HOU",
   "player_name": "Steven Adams",
   "player_id": 203500,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 6.503,
   "min_on": 795.5,
   "team_elo": 1577.25,
   "star_elo_removed": 164.7,
   "p_win_with": 0.6094,
   "p_win_without": 0.3767,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2327,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "SAC",
   "player_name": "Domantas Sabonis",
   "player_id": 1627734,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 6.611,
   "min_on": 2428.9,
   "team_elo": 1503.47,
   "star_elo_removed": 167.5,
   "p_win_with": 0.505,
   "p_win_without": 0.2801,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2249,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "UTA",
   "player_name": "John Collins",
   "player_id": 1628381,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 15.371,
   "min_on": 1220.5,
   "team_elo": 1308.92,
   "star_elo_removed": 389.4,
   "p_win_with": 0.2498,
   "p_win_without": 0.0342,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2156,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "TOR",
   "player_name": "Jakob Poeltl",
   "player_id": 1627751,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 7.751,
   "min_on": 1685.7,
   "team_elo": 1405.35,
   "star_elo_removed": 196.4,
   "p_win_with": 0.3671,
   "p_win_without": 0.1577,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2093,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "MIN",
   "player_name": "Naz Reid",
   "player_id": 1629675,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 5.85,
   "min_on": 2200.1,
   "team_elo": 1597.15,
   "star_elo_removed": 148.2,
   "p_win_with": 0.6363,
   "p_win_without": 0.4271,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2092,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "WAS",
   "player_name": "Richaun Holmes",
   "player_id": 1626158,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 14.126,
   "min_on": 534.1,
   "team_elo": 1301.99,
   "star_elo_removed": 357.9,
   "p_win_with": 0.2424,
   "p_win_without": 0.0392,
   "delta_winprob": 0.2032,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "CHA",
   "player_name": "Moussa Diabat\u00e9",
   "player_id": 1631217,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 7.99,
   "min_on": 1240.5,
   "team_elo": 1299.98,
   "star_elo_removed": 202.4,
   "p_win_with": 0.2402,
   "p_win_without": 0.0898,
   "delta_winprob": 0.1505,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "DET",
   "player_name": "Tobias Harris",
   "player_id": 202699,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 4.139,
   "min_on": 2305.5,
   "team_elo": 1487.16,
   "star_elo_removed": 104.9,
   "p_win_with": 0.4815,
   "p_win_without": 0.3368,
   "delta_winprob": 0.1447,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  },
  {
   "team_abbr": "PHI",
   "player_name": "Guerschon Yabusele",
   "player_id": 1627824,
   "on_off_net_rating_delta": 5.279,
   "min_on": 1896.0,
   "team_elo": 1359.45,
   "star_elo_removed": 133.7,
   "p_win_with": 0.3081,
   "p_win_without": 0.1709,
   "delta_winprob": 0.1371,
   "caveat": "CEILING: on/off net_rating_delta overstates marginal individual value (ROSTER CONFOUND -- full-lineup on-vs-off swing, not controlled for teammates/opponent/coach-trust/garbage-time). net_rating->Elo conversion is a declared frozen assumption. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, not a causal or advantage claim."
  }
 ],
 "plot_written": true
}