{
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "source": "data/cache/calibration_grid/nba_reliability_map.json",
 "source_honest_note": "Calibration/reliability measurement only, never a money/return/advantage claim. MARKET = Polymarket in-play price, same tick as the score state (nba_checkpoints_full.parquet already fuses them, no separate as-of join). MODEL = winprob_dispatch.dispatch('nba', ...) over predict_matchup.py, sampled per-bucket (--model-per-bucket; 0 = market-only pass). Tick-weighted aggregates, not game-weighted -- a bucket with more ticks from one game pulls its own average, stated here rather than hidden. can_price is a preregistered gate (n_games>=30 AND model_n>=10 AND |model-outcome|<=0.06); any bucket failing it returns can_price=False with the specific reason, never a guess.",
 "n_buckets_total": 84,
 "n_buckets_masked_n_lt_30": 7,
 "n_buckets_unmasked": 77,
 "mask_rule": "bucket excluded from headline/heatmap when n_games < 30 (same gate nba_grid.py's can_price uses); still listed in cells with masked_n_lt_30=true, never silently dropped.",
 "cells": [
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   "outcome_rate": 0.983,
   "model_market_gap": -0.265,
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   "masked_n_lt_30": false
  },
  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+01_05",
   "time_band": "rem_00_02",
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   "model_mean_prob": 1.0,
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   "model_market_gap": 0.0193,
   "can_price": true,
   "masked_n_lt_30": false
  },
  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+01_05",
   "time_band": "rem_02_05",
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   "n_ticks": 1364,
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   "outcome_rate": 0.6694,
   "model_market_gap": 0.0107,
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   "masked_n_lt_30": false
  },
  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+01_05",
   "time_band": "rem_05_12",
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   "model_mean_prob": 0.5759,
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   "masked_n_lt_30": false
  },
  {
   "bucket": "lead_+01_05|rem_12_24|reg",
   "lead_band": "lead_+01_05",
   "time_band": "rem_12_24",
   "n_games": 752,
   "n_ticks": 6226,
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   "model_market_gap": -0.0711,
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   "masked_n_lt_30": false
  },
  {
   "bucket": "lead_+01_05|rem_24_36|reg",
   "lead_band": "lead_+01_05",
   "time_band": "rem_24_36",
   "n_games": 898,
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   "can_price": true,
   "masked_n_lt_30": false
  },
  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+01_05",
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  },
  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+05_10",
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   "n_ticks": 2403,
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  },
  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+05_10",
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  },
  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+05_10",
   "time_band": "rem_02_05",
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  },
  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+05_10",
   "time_band": "rem_05_12",
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   "masked_n_lt_30": false
  },
  {
   "bucket": "lead_+05_10|rem_12_24|reg",
   "lead_band": "lead_+05_10",
   "time_band": "rem_12_24",
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   "masked_n_lt_30": false
  },
  {
   "bucket": "lead_+05_10|rem_24_36|reg",
   "lead_band": "lead_+05_10",
   "time_band": "rem_24_36",
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  },
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  {
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  },
  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+10_15",
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   "lead_band": "lead_+10_15",
   "time_band": "rem_05_12",
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  {
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   "lead_band": "lead_+10_15",
   "time_band": "rem_12_24",
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   "lead_band": "lead_+10_15",
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   "lead_band": "lead_+15_20",
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  },
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 ],
 "novelty": {
  "verdict": "INCREMENTAL",
  "closest_prior_work": "arXiv 2606.07811 (~Jun 2026), 'When Do Markets Fully Process Public Information? Evidence from Real-Time Prediction Markets' -- Kalshi/NBA contract-minute join of market price, a state-only model, and terminal outcome; measures how fully the closing reference forecast has absorbed realized game state.",
  "how_ours_differs": "Same three-way (model, market, outcome) join, reshaped into a 2D lead x time-remaining atlas instead of a single time-checkpoint curve, off our own held reliability-map corpus (nba_checkpoints_full.parquet via calibration_grid.nba_grid). Not a new method -- do not claim first-ever."
 },
 "story": "Reliability map reshaped into a lead x time-remaining grid: 84 state buckets, 7 below the n>=30-games mask. This is a calibration atlas (model vs market vs realized frequency by game state), not an advantage/return claim.",
 "as_of": "2026-09-17",
 "corpus": "data/cache/calibration_grid/nba_reliability_map.json -- NBA in-play checkpoints, not the in-game join corpus; unaffected by the segmentation"
}