{
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "generated_at": "2026-07-22T20:15:22.041778+00:00",
 "method": "composition only -- every number copied verbatim from its source artifact",
 "n_rows": 17,
 "rows": [
  {
   "sport": "nba",
   "market": "winprob (Brier)",
   "checkpoint": "end_q1",
   "n": 1592,
   "paired_delta_mean": -0.0084,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.016101811879082918,
    -0.0007999346168341686
   ],
   "verdict": "MARKET_SHARPER_PROVISIONAL",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_nba_winprob_ALLGAMES_v3.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "nba",
   "market": "winprob (Brier)",
   "checkpoint": "halftime",
   "n": 1593,
   "paired_delta_mean": -0.004,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.009833149837413686,
    0.0015363951420276217
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_nba_winprob_ALLGAMES_v3.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "nba",
   "market": "winprob (Brier)",
   "checkpoint": "end_q3",
   "n": 1593,
   "paired_delta_mean": 0.0011,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.0027845115004708075,
    0.005201263747489016
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_nba_winprob_ALLGAMES_v3.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "nba",
   "market": "winprob (Brier)",
   "checkpoint": "q4_under5",
   "n": 1593,
   "paired_delta_mean": 0.0019,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.00098643160153798,
    0.004781044260357816
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_nba_winprob_ALLGAMES_v3.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "home_margin|end_inning_3",
   "n": 20,
   "paired_delta_mean": 0.4499,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.020569384058188415,
    1.0687464621667424
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "home_margin|end_inning_5",
   "n": 26,
   "paired_delta_mean": 0.8555,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    0.32594001284687374,
    1.488773471523803
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "home_margin|end_inning_6",
   "n": 22,
   "paired_delta_mean": 0.9583,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    0.2408788621981401,
    1.8046151457494153
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "home_margin|end_inning_7",
   "n": 21,
   "paired_delta_mean": 1.066,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    0.2656424426666572,
    1.9601757169298957
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "home_margin|end_inning_8",
   "n": 21,
   "paired_delta_mean": 1.794,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    0.8720949949082061,
    3.0589789365143907
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "total_runs|end_inning_3",
   "n": 49,
   "paired_delta_mean": 0.0891,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.3031783173062472,
    0.5063543617299131
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "total_runs|end_inning_5",
   "n": 54,
   "paired_delta_mean": 0.2604,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.052614231788668975,
    0.5751412231831872
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "total_runs|end_inning_6",
   "n": 54,
   "paired_delta_mean": 0.6392,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    0.31739428723201235,
    0.9632194949072426
   ],
   "verdict": "MODEL_SHARPER_PROVISIONAL",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "total_runs|end_inning_7",
   "n": 55,
   "paired_delta_mean": 0.7327,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    0.4130762214262852,
    1.0809591352514807
   ],
   "verdict": "MODEL_SHARPER_PROVISIONAL",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_ingame",
   "market": "CRPS",
   "checkpoint": "total_runs|end_inning_8",
   "n": 49,
   "paired_delta_mean": 1.4201,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    0.9658843906709079,
    1.8976610619874428
   ],
   "verdict": "MODEL_SHARPER_PROVISIONAL",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb_pregame",
   "market": "CRPS (total_runs)",
   "checkpoint": "pregame",
   "n": 300,
   "paired_delta_mean": -0.0523,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.1657,
    0.0482
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_mlb.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "market": "winprob (Brier)",
   "checkpoint": "home_win_prob|minute_60",
   "n": 22,
   "paired_delta_mean": -0.0931,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.15696017645448831,
    -0.03359206672737812
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_soccer.json"
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "market": "winprob (Brier)",
   "checkpoint": "home_win_prob|minute_75",
   "n": 17,
   "paired_delta_mean": -0.1075,
   "paired_delta_95ci": [
    -0.1885062749116145,
    -0.03163929014699815
   ],
   "verdict": "UNDERPOWERED",
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/benchmarks/crps_market/last_run_ingame_soccer.json"
  }
 ],
 "skipped": [
  {
   "source": "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/murphy_decomposition.json",
   "reason": "murphy decomposition: full-season reliability/resolution gap per sport, no per-checkpoint CI -- not the same shape as the paired-delta scoreboard. verdict copied verbatim: mlb: model Brier 0.2377 is worse than market 0.2067 (gap=+0.0310); driven mainly by resolution (information, not fixable by recalibration) (reliability_gap=+0.0066, resolution_gap=-0.0235). soccer_intl: model Brier 0.2279 is worse than market 0.1427 (gap=+0.0852); driven mainly by resolution (information, not fixable by recalibration) (reliability_gap=+0.0394, resolution_gap=-0.0446)."
  },
  {
   "source": "results/winprob_walk_forward_results.json",
   "reason": "walk-forward accuracy/Brier of the model alone, no market-paired delta or CI -- not comparable to the scoreboard rows."
  }
 ],
 "honest_note": "Model beats market only where verdict starts MODEL_SHARPER (still PROVISIONAL pending more data). Most rows are UNDERPOWERED (CI spans zero) or MARKET_SHARPER -- reported as-is."
}