{
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "as_of": "2026-05-21 16:05:11",
 "source_artifact": "data/nba_ai.db :: play_by_play (sport='nba')",
 "method": "halftime margin & second-half margin per team-game from running pbp scores; split each team's games by led/trailed at half",
 "min_games_per_split": 2,
 "n_games": 26,
 "n_team_games": 52,
 "n_teams_placed_on_quadrant": 0,
 "team_verdict": "0 teams meet the n>=2-per-split floor (led AND trailed at half): per-team front-runner vs comeback separation is NOT buildable from this 26-game corpus. Use the league-level mean-reversion stat as the headline.",
 "league_mean_reversion": {
  "n_team_games": 52,
  "buildable": true,
  "slope_2h_on_half": 0.2885,
  "intercept": -0.0,
  "pearson_r": 0.2266,
  "mean_2h_margin_when_led_at_half": 1.346,
  "n_led": 26,
  "mean_2h_margin_when_trailed_at_half": -1.346,
  "n_trailed": 26,
  "interpretation": "slope < 0 => 2nd-half margin reverts against the halftime lead (mean reversion); ~0 => leads persist; > 0 => leads compound. Descriptive stat, not an advantage claim."
 },
 "teams": [
  {
   "team": "ATL",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": 1.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": 8.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "BKN",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -8.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -12.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "BOS",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 2,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": 7.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "CHA",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 2,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": 7.5,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "CHI",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 2,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": 0.5,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "CLE",
   "n_games": 3,
   "n_led_at_half": 3,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": 8.333,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "DAL",
   "n_games": 1,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": 13.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "DEN",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 2,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -3.5,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "DET",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -15.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -2.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "GSW",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 2,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": 25.5,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "HOU",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -16.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": 26.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "IND",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 2,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": 3.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "LAC",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -1.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": 5.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "LAL",
   "n_games": 1,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -6.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "MEM",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 2,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -17.5,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "MIA",
   "n_games": 1,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -15.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "MIL",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 2,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -4.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "MIN",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 2,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": 6.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "NOP",
   "n_games": 1,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": 11.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "NYK",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": 9.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -4.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "OKC",
   "n_games": 1,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": 8.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "ORL",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 2,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": 13.5,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "PHI",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 2,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -3.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "PHX",
   "n_games": 1,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -5.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "POR",
   "n_games": 1,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -24.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "SAC",
   "n_games": 1,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -6.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "SAS",
   "n_games": 1,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 0,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": -13.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": null,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "TOR",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 1,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 1,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": 2.0,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -10.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "UTA",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 2,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -9.0,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  },
  {
   "team": "WAS",
   "n_games": 2,
   "n_led_at_half": 0,
   "n_trailed_at_half": 2,
   "front_runner_2h_margin": null,
   "comeback_2h_margin": -11.5,
   "placed_on_quadrant": false,
   "masked_below_floor": true
  }
 ],
 "floors_and_assumptions": [
  "Thin corpus: most teams appear 1-2x, so per-team splits are 0-2 games; teams below MIN_GAMES_PER_SPLIT in either split are masked, never printed as stable.",
  "Halftime = end of period 2; final includes OT if present (max period snapshot).",
  "Home/away labeled by score-increment votes; ties/degenerate games dropped.",
  "League stat is the robust n=team_games result; per-team is illustrative only."
 ]
}