{
 "generated_at": "2026-07-25T11:12:42.584390+00:00",
 "descriptive_only": true,
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "headline": "mlb: 78,986 residual rows carry the independent information of at most ~227 games.",
 "method": "ESS from the already-committed lag-1 within-game residual autocorrelation (rho); because the game outcome is terminal-constant the probability path is smooth, so consecutive rows are near-duplicates rather than independent draws. The distinct-game count is the conservative anchor and the AR(1) figure is an approximation, so the reported ess_anchor takes the minimum of the two.",
 "formula": "ESS_AR1 = n_rows * (1 - rho) / (1 + rho); CI inflation = sqrt(n_rows / ESS)",
 "source_artifact": "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/residual_autocorrelation.json",
 "confound": "AR(1) is a first-order approximation of a smooth terminal-constant path, not a full independence model; the distinct-game count is the conservative anchor. DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY -- this deflates our OWN sample sizes and makes no advantage or return claim.",
 "corpora": [
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "n_rows": 78986,
   "n_games": 227,
   "rho_model": 0.9809,
   "rho_market": 0.9799,
   "ess_ar1": 761,
   "ess_anchor": 227,
   "infl_ar1": 10.2,
   "infl_anchor": 18.7
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "n_rows": 9003,
   "n_games": 51,
   "rho_model": 0.9624,
   "rho_market": 0.9489,
   "ess_ar1": 172,
   "ess_anchor": 51,
   "infl_ar1": 7.2,
   "infl_anchor": 13.3
  }
 ]
}