{ "edge_claimed": false, "as_of": "2026-07-11T16:48:14Z", "method": "Per claim family (sport x hypothesis) from the 4 validation ledgers: verdict history ordered by run_ts, current status = last entry. Families with >1 distinct status flagged flipped.", "story": "The product is the self-grading. Nulls, not-testables and retractions are kept in the ledger and counted; a system that only ever confirmed would not be credible.", "n_ledger_rows": 287, "summary": { "n_families": 259, "by_status": { "verified": 121, "provisional": 4, "null": 99, "not_testable": 28, "retracted": 7 }, "by_status_per_sport": { "basketball_nba": { "null": 26, "verified": 39, "not_testable": 7, "provisional": 2 }, "mlb": { "null": 32, "verified": 31, "not_testable": 8, "retracted": 6, "provisional": 1 }, "soccer": { "null": 21, "verified": 27, "not_testable": 8, "provisional": 1, "retracted": 1 }, "tennis": { "null": 20, "verified": 24, "not_testable": 5 } }, "confirms": 121, "nulls_or_worse": 134, "honest_ratio_nulls_per_confirm": 1.107, "n_flipped": 5, "as_of": "2026-07-11T16:48:14Z" }, "flipped_families": [ { "sport": "basketball_nba", "hypothesis": "three_in_four_fatigue", "n_entries": 2, "first_seen": "undated", "last_seen": "undated", "current_status": "verified", "flipped": true, 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"bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025", "n": 8927, "effect": -0.04412 } ] }, { "sport": "mlb", "hypothesis": "reliever_3in3d_fatigue__combined", "n_entries": 2, "first_seen": "undated", "last_seen": "undated", "current_status": "null", "flipped": true, "verdict_sequence": [ "PROVISIONAL", "NULL_LOCAL" ], "history": [ { "verdict": "PROVISIONAL", "status": "provisional", "run_ts": null, "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025", "n": 26878, "effect": null }, { "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL", "status": "null", "run_ts": null, "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025", "n": 26878, "effect": null } ] }, { "sport": "mlb", "hypothesis": "staff_dayafter_fatigue_chain", "n_entries": 3, "first_seen": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z", "last_seen": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z", "current_status": "null", "flipped": true, "verdict_sequence": [ "NULL_LOCAL", "CONFIRMED_LOCAL", "NULL_LOCAL" ], "history": [ { "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL", "status": "null", "run_ts": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z", "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount", "n": 2087, "effect": 0.0789 }, { "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL", "status": "verified", "run_ts": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z", "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount", "n": 2160, "effect": 0.3915 }, { "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL", "status": "null", "run_ts": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z", "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount", "n": 2078, "effect": 0.3266 } ] }, { "sport": "tennis", "hypothesis": "break_point_conversion_by_set_number", "n_entries": 2, "first_seen": "undated", "last_seen": "undated", "current_status": "verified", "flipped": true, "verdict_sequence": [ "NOT_TESTABLE", "CONFIRMED_LOCAL" ], "history": [ { "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE", "status": "not_testable", "run_ts": null, "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015", "n": 34145, "effect": -0.017 }, { "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL", "status": "verified", "run_ts": null, "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015", "n": 34145, "effect": -0.017 } ] } ], "families": [ { "sport": "basketball_nba", "hypothesis": "assist_hub_concentration_offrtg", "n_entries": 1, "first_seen": "undated", "last_seen": "undated", "current_status": "null", "flipped": false, "verdict_sequence": [ "NULL_LOCAL" ], "history": [ { "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL", "status": "null", "run_ts": null, "corpus": "player_boxscores_2025_26+quarter_box+four_factor_env", "n": 30, "effect": 4.2094 } ] }, { "sport": "basketball_nba", "hypothesis": "b2b_rest_penalty", "n_entries": 2, "first_seen": "undated", "last_seen": "undated", "current_status": "verified", "flipped": false, "verdict_sequence": [ "CONFIRMED_LOCAL", "CONFIRMED_LOCAL" ], "history": [ { "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL", "status": "verified", "run_ts": null, "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26", "n": 4732, "effect": -1.73 }, { "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL", "status": "verified", "run_ts": null, "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26", "n": 7192, "effect": -1.955 } ] }, { "sport": "basketball_nba", "hypothesis": 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"current_status": "verified", "flipped": false, "verdict_sequence": [ "CONFIRMED_LOCAL", "CONFIRMED_LOCAL" ], "history": [ { "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL", "status": "verified", "run_ts": "2026-07-10T08:59:16Z", "corpus": "espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward", "n": null, "effect": null }, { "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL", "status": "verified", "run_ts": "2026-07-10T09:01:17Z", "corpus": "espn_boxscores_full_1977games", "n": null, "effect": null } ] }, { "sport": "basketball_nba", "hypothesis": "boxdetail_ast_persistence_replication_2024_25", "n_entries": 1, "first_seen": "2026-07-10T15:28:56Z", "last_seen": "2026-07-10T15:28:56Z", "current_status": "verified", "flipped": false, "verdict_sequence": [ "REPLICATED" ], "history": [ { "verdict": "REPLICATED", "status": "verified", "run_ts": "2026-07-10T15:28:56Z", "corpus": "replication_wave1_second_corpus", "n": null, "effect": null } ] }, { "sport": "basketball_nba", "hypothesis": "boxdetail_fast_break_pts_persistence_and_margin", 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