{
  "checkpoints": {
    "mlb": {
      "1": {
        "n": 3589,
        "model_brier": 0.2502,
        "market_brier": 0.2382,
        "naive_brier": 0.2464,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.0121
      },
      "2": {
        "n": 2803,
        "model_brier": 0.2377,
        "market_brier": 0.2023,
        "naive_brier": 0.22,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.0353
      },
      "3": {
        "n": 3097,
        "model_brier": 0.1998,
        "market_brier": 0.1778,
        "naive_brier": 0.192,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.0221
      },
      "4": {
        "n": 3034,
        "model_brier": 0.1958,
        "market_brier": 0.1719,
        "naive_brier": 0.1788,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.0239
      },
      "5": {
        "n": 3139,
        "model_brier": 0.1408,
        "market_brier": 0.1288,
        "naive_brier": 0.1459,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.012
      },
      "6": {
        "n": 3579,
        "model_brier": 0.1298,
        "market_brier": 0.1179,
        "naive_brier": 0.1388,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.0119
      },
      "7": {
        "n": 3447,
        "model_brier": 0.1124,
        "market_brier": 0.101,
        "naive_brier": 0.134,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.0114
      },
      "8": {
        "n": 2833,
        "model_brier": 0.0829,
        "market_brier": 0.0778,
        "naive_brier": 0.129,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.0051
      },
      "9": {
        "n": 1110,
        "model_brier": 0.062,
        "market_brier": 0.061,
        "naive_brier": 0.137,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.001
      },
      "10": {
        "n": 46,
        "model_brier": 0.2392,
        "market_brier": 0.1607,
        "naive_brier": 0.225,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.0785
      },
      "11": {
        "n": 6,
        "model_brier": 0.2273,
        "market_brier": 0.1095,
        "naive_brier": 0.25,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1179
      }
    },
    "soccer_intl": {
      "0": {
        "n": 150,
        "model_brier": 0.2448,
        "market_brier": 0.1177,
        "naive_brier": 0.23,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1271
      },
      "5": {
        "n": 213,
        "model_brier": 0.2758,
        "market_brier": 0.1278,
        "naive_brier": 0.2399,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.148
      },
      "10": {
        "n": 203,
        "model_brier": 0.276,
        "market_brier": 0.1227,
        "naive_brier": 0.2354,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1533
      },
      "15": {
        "n": 208,
        "model_brier": 0.2758,
        "market_brier": 0.127,
        "naive_brier": 0.2269,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1488
      },
      "20": {
        "n": 192,
        "model_brier": 0.269,
        "market_brier": 0.1359,
        "naive_brier": 0.2247,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1331
      },
      "25": {
        "n": 195,
        "model_brier": 0.2918,
        "market_brier": 0.1585,
        "naive_brier": 0.2295,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1333
      },
      "30": {
        "n": 192,
        "model_brier": 0.3032,
        "market_brier": 0.1608,
        "naive_brier": 0.2256,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1424
      },
      "35": {
        "n": 173,
        "model_brier": 0.2939,
        "market_brier": 0.1673,
        "naive_brier": 0.2267,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1266
      },
      "40": {
        "n": 189,
        "model_brier": 0.3123,
        "market_brier": 0.1709,
        "naive_brier": 0.2228,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1414
      },
      "45": {
        "n": 402,
        "model_brier": 0.2835,
        "market_brier": 0.1512,
        "naive_brier": 0.2185,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1323
      },
      "50": {
        "n": 189,
        "model_brier": 0.3371,
        "market_brier": 0.2128,
        "naive_brier": 0.2084,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1243
      },
      "55": {
        "n": 192,
        "model_brier": 0.3361,
        "market_brier": 0.2326,
        "naive_brier": 0.2189,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1036
      },
      "60": {
        "n": 189,
        "model_brier": 0.329,
        "market_brier": 0.2235,
        "naive_brier": 0.2124,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1055
      },
      "65": {
        "n": 154,
        "model_brier": 0.3888,
        "market_brier": 0.2625,
        "naive_brier": 0.2253,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1263
      },
      "70": {
        "n": 152,
        "model_brier": 0.4427,
        "market_brier": 0.3042,
        "naive_brier": 0.224,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1384
      },
      "75": {
        "n": 132,
        "model_brier": 0.4011,
        "market_brier": 0.2411,
        "naive_brier": 0.2062,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1601
      },
      "80": {
        "n": 127,
        "model_brier": 0.4122,
        "market_brier": 0.2407,
        "naive_brier": 0.1906,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1715
      },
      "85": {
        "n": 98,
        "model_brier": 0.4452,
        "market_brier": 0.264,
        "naive_brier": 0.1748,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1811
      },
      "90": {
        "n": 33,
        "model_brier": 0.3258,
        "market_brier": 0.2209,
        "naive_brier": 0.1778,
        "market_minus_model_brier": -0.1048
      }
    }
  },
  "novelty": {
    "verdict": "INCREMENTAL",
    "closest_prior_work": "arXiv 2606.07811 (~Jun 2026), 'When Do Markets Fully Process Public Information? Evidence from Real-Time Prediction Markets' -- Kalshi/NBA, contract-minute market vs state-only-model vs outcome join, 409,512 rows, finds 0.64-for-one contemporaneous absorption of a 1-minute state move.",
    "how_ours_differs": "Same core instrument (paired model/market/outcome Brier by game-time checkpoint). Ours applies it to MLB (inning) and soccer_intl (5-min bucket) corpora we actually hold, with a naive score-only baseline included for context. Not a new method -- do not claim first-ever."
  },
  "as_of": "2026-09-16",
  "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}