{ "status": "ok", "generated_at": "2026-07-25T04:25:58.801043+00:00", "descriptive_only": true, "edge_claimed": false, "headline": "Greater than the sum of their parts: which five-man lineups beat what their individual on/off numbers predict -- the Grizzlies' Jackson-Morant-Bane-Edey-Wells five topped 2024-25 at +24.32 net per 48 above expected.", "method": "For every five-man lineup where all five members individually qualified for on/off (qualifies==True in the real stint cache), compare the lineup's observed net rating per 48 to an 'expected' net rating built by summing the five members' individual on/off contributions, then rank by the residual.", "metric_definition": "synergy_residual = net_per48 - expected_net_per48; positive means the five-man unit outperforms the sum of its individual parts, negative means it underperforms.", "season": "2024-25", "n_qualified": 102, "min_floor_note": "on-court minutes range 101.6-940.0 across the 102 qualified lineups -- the low end is a small sample; do not over-read a ~100-minute lineup", "top": [ { "rank": 1, "members": [ "Jaren Jackson Jr.", "Ja Morant", "Desmond Bane", "Zach Edey", "Jaylen Wells" ], "team_id": 1610612763, "n_games": 25, "min": 221.8, "net_per48": 29.87, "expected_net_per48": 5.55, "synergy_residual": 24.32 }, { "rank": 2, "members": [ "Russell Westbrook", "Aaron Gordon", "Nikola Joki\u0107", "Michael Porter Jr.", "Christian Braun" ], "team_id": 1610612743, "n_games": 24, "min": 128.4, "net_per48": 27.3, "expected_net_per48": 6.62, "synergy_residual": 20.67 }, { "rank": 3, "members": [ "Mike Conley", "Rudy Gobert", "Naz Reid", "Anthony Edwards", "Jaden McDaniels" ], "team_id": 1610612750, "n_games": 26, "min": 114.1, "net_per48": 26.08, "expected_net_per48": 5.8, "synergy_residual": 20.29 }, { "rank": 4, "members": [ "Kyrie Irving", "Klay Thompson", "P.J. Washington", "Luka Don\u010di\u0107", "Dereck Lively II" ], "team_id": 1610612742, "n_games": 14, "min": 118.7, "net_per48": 23.45, "expected_net_per48": 4.17, "synergy_residual": 19.28 }, { "rank": 5, "members": [ "Dennis Schr\u00f6der", "Dorian Finney-Smith", "Nic Claxton", "Cameron Johnson", "Cam Thomas" ], "team_id": 1610612751, "n_games": 9, "min": 105.8, "net_per48": 14.51, "expected_net_per48": -3.8, "synergy_residual": 18.32 }, { "rank": 6, "members": [ "Mike Conley", "Rudy Gobert", "Donte DiVincenzo", "Nickeil Alexander-Walker", "Naz Reid" ], "team_id": 1610612750, "n_games": 29, "min": 123.0, "net_per48": 24.59, "expected_net_per48": 6.43, "synergy_residual": 18.16 }, { "rank": 7, "members": [ "Brook Lopez", "Damian Lillard", "Bobby Portis", "Gary Trent Jr.", "AJ Green" ], "team_id": 1610612749, "n_games": 16, "min": 121.1, "net_per48": 21.0, "expected_net_per48": 3.04, "synergy_residual": 17.97 }, { "rank": 8, "members": [ "LeBron James", "Dorian Finney-Smith", "Luka Don\u010di\u0107", "Rui Hachimura", "Austin Reaves" ], "team_id": 1610612747, "n_games": 13, "min": 107.8, "net_per48": 22.7, "expected_net_per48": 5.16, "synergy_residual": 17.55 }, { "rank": 9, "members": [ "DeMar DeRozan", "Domantas Sabonis", "Malik Monk", "Keegan Murray", "Keon Ellis" ], "team_id": 1610612758, "n_games": 38, "min": 200.9, "net_per48": 19.36, "expected_net_per48": 2.15, "synergy_residual": 17.2 }, { "rank": 10, "members": [ "Chris Paul", "Harrison Barnes", "Devin Vassell", "Jeremy Sochan", "Victor Wembanyama" ], "team_id": 1610612759, "n_games": 12, "min": 135.9, "net_per48": 15.54, "expected_net_per48": -1.56, "synergy_residual": 17.11 }, { "rank": 11, "members": [ "Clint Capela", "Trae Young", "De'Andre Hunter", "Jalen Johnson", "Dyson Daniels" ], "team_id": 1610612737, "n_games": 16, "min": 104.5, "net_per48": 15.62, "expected_net_per48": -0.8, "synergy_residual": 16.42 }, { "rank": 12, "members": [ "James Harden", "Kawhi Leonard", "Norman Powell", "Ivica Zubac", "Derrick Jones Jr." ], "team_id": 1610612746, "n_games": 20, "min": 192.7, "net_per48": 24.16, "expected_net_per48": 8.39, "synergy_residual": 15.77 }, { "rank": 13, "members": [ "Lauri Markkanen", "John Collins", "Collin Sexton", "Walker Kessler", "Keyonte George" ], "team_id": 1610612762, "n_games": 14, "min": 196.2, "net_per48": 7.83, "expected_net_per48": -7.04, "synergy_residual": 14.86 }, { "rank": 14, "members": [ "Dillon Brooks", "Jalen Green", "Alperen Sengun", "Tari Eason", "Amen Thompson" ], "team_id": 1610612745, "n_games": 20, "min": 148.6, "net_per48": 20.03, "expected_net_per48": 5.21, "synergy_residual": 14.82 }, { "rank": 15, "members": [ "Chris Paul", "Harrison Barnes", "Julian Champagnie", "Victor Wembanyama", "Stephon Castle" ], "team_id": 1610612759, "n_games": 21, "min": 176.7, "net_per48": 11.95, "expected_net_per48": -1.18, "synergy_residual": 13.13 } ], "bottom": [ { "rank": 1, "members": [ "Jerami Grant", "Anfernee Simons", "Deandre Ayton", "Shaedon Sharpe", "Toumani Camara" ], "team_id": 1610612757, "n_games": 13, "min": 136.9, "net_per48": -30.86, "expected_net_per48": -4.59, "synergy_residual": -26.27 }, { "rank": 2, "members": [ "Kyle Kuzma", "Jordan Poole", "Bilal Coulibaly", "Alex Sarr", "Bub Carrington" ], "team_id": 1610612764, "n_games": 17, "min": 207.8, "net_per48": -34.66, "expected_net_per48": -15.79, "synergy_residual": -18.86 }, { "rank": 3, "members": [ "D'Angelo Russell", "Nic Claxton", "Cameron Johnson", "Ziaire Williams", "Keon Johnson" ], "team_id": 1610612751, "n_games": 9, "min": 104.1, "net_per48": -24.9, "expected_net_per48": -8.09, "synergy_residual": -16.81 }, { "rank": 4, "members": [ "Terry Rozier", "Bam Adebayo", "Haywood Highsmith", "Tyler Herro", "Jaime Jaquez Jr." ], "team_id": 1610612748, "n_games": 15, "min": 119.7, "net_per48": -17.24, "expected_net_per48": -1.17, "synergy_residual": -16.07 }, { "rank": 5, "members": [ "Fred VanVleet", "Dillon Brooks", "Jalen Green", "Alperen Sengun", "Amen Thompson" ], "team_id": 1610612745, "n_games": 27, "min": 323.2, "net_per48": -9.51, "expected_net_per48": 5.23, "synergy_residual": -14.74 }, { "rank": 6, "members": [ "James Harden", "Norman Powell", "Ivica Zubac", "Derrick Jones Jr.", "Terance Mann" ], "team_id": 1610612746, "n_games": 13, "min": 169.1, "net_per48": -9.65, "expected_net_per48": 5.01, "synergy_residual": -14.66 }, { "rank": 7, "members": [ "OG Anunoby", "Josh Hart", "Mikal Bridges", "Jalen Brunson", "Precious Achiuwa" ], "team_id": 1610612752, "n_games": 22, "min": 123.5, "net_per48": -11.27, "expected_net_per48": 3.16, "synergy_residual": -14.43 }, { "rank": 8, "members": [ "Kevin Durant", "Bradley Beal", "Jusuf Nurki\u0107", "Tyus Jones", "Devin Booker" ], "team_id": 1610612756, "n_games": 12, "min": 119.3, "net_per48": -18.11, "expected_net_per48": -4.06, "synergy_residual": -14.05 } ], "observation_window": { "season": "2024-25", "note": "single season from the local stint cache; ~100+ on-court-minute floor, noisy" }, "confounds": [ "single season: only 2024-25 has this stint cache -- no cross-season replication is possible yet", "small minutes: the floor is roughly 100 on-court minutes for some lineups, which is noisy and wide-uncertainty -- do not over-read a ~100-minute lineup", "the 'expected' baseline itself rests on each member's on/off split, which is roster-confounded (teammates and role are bundled into it)", "descriptive association, not proof of causal chemistry", "opponent-raw: no opponent-strength adjustment" ], "receipt": { "source_parquets": [ "data/cache/team_system/lineups/lineup_synergy_2024_25.parquet", "data/cache/team_system/lineups/on_off_2024_25.parquet" ] } }