{
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "descriptive_only": true,
 "story": "Outcome-free convergence view: mean |model_prob - market_prob| (gap) and mean Bernoulli entropy (market + model, bits) per game-time checkpoint. Tracks whether the two forecasters agree more and whether predictive uncertainty collapses as the game resolves.",
 "floors": {
  "min_rows_per_checkpoint": 30,
  "entropy_units": "bits (log2); 1.0 max at p=0.5, 0.0 certain",
  "note": "entropy decay late in a game is expected (p->0/1), not a finding"
 },
 "novelty": {
  "verdict": "STANDARD_INSTRUMENT",
  "detail": "Forecaster agreement + Shannon-entropy decay over event time are textbook descriptive measures; contribution is only the application to the mlb/soccer_intl joined corpora. Not a new method."
 },
 "min_n": 30,
 "plot_written": true,
 "checkpoints": {
  "mlb": {
   "1": {
    "n": 3589,
    "mean_gap": 0.0839,
    "median_gap": 0.0683,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.9553,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.976,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.5285,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.5339
   },
   "2": {
    "n": 2803,
    "mean_gap": 0.1189,
    "median_gap": 0.0948,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.8971,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.9733,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.5562,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.5386
   },
   "3": {
    "n": 3097,
    "mean_gap": 0.1117,
    "median_gap": 0.0962,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.7993,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.9483,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.5514,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.5307
   },
   "4": {
    "n": 3034,
    "mean_gap": 0.1284,
    "median_gap": 0.1129,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.7386,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.938,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.534,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.527
   },
   "5": {
    "n": 3139,
    "mean_gap": 0.0741,
    "median_gap": 0.0718,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.6583,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.8042,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.5355,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.5186
   },
   "6": {
    "n": 3579,
    "mean_gap": 0.0781,
    "median_gap": 0.0742,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.6106,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.7774,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.5181,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.5082
   },
   "7": {
    "n": 3447,
    "mean_gap": 0.0603,
    "median_gap": 0.0508,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.5414,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.6203,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.5044,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.4904
   },
   "8": {
    "n": 2833,
    "mean_gap": 0.0442,
    "median_gap": 0.028,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.4757,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.4814,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.506,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.4837
   },
   "9": {
    "n": 1110,
    "mean_gap": 0.0537,
    "median_gap": 0.0263,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.4589,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.4181,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4066,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.394
   },
   "10": {
    "n": 46,
    "mean_gap": 0.2067,
    "median_gap": 0.1676,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.8488,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.6009,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.461,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.2548
   }
  },
  "soccer_intl": {
   "0": {
    "n": 150,
    "mean_gap": 0.163,
    "median_gap": 0.1159,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.8152,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.8429,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4737,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3551
   },
   "5": {
    "n": 213,
    "mean_gap": 0.1739,
    "median_gap": 0.1562,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.8354,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.8365,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4793,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3429
   },
   "10": {
    "n": 203,
    "mean_gap": 0.1876,
    "median_gap": 0.1564,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.8352,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.8374,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4971,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3448
   },
   "15": {
    "n": 208,
    "mean_gap": 0.1683,
    "median_gap": 0.1426,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.8041,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.7939,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4743,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3336
   },
   "20": {
    "n": 192,
    "mean_gap": 0.1689,
    "median_gap": 0.1472,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.8275,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.802,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.5007,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3591
   },
   "25": {
    "n": 195,
    "mean_gap": 0.166,
    "median_gap": 0.1443,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.8171,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.7612,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4697,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3392
   },
   "30": {
    "n": 192,
    "mean_gap": 0.1555,
    "median_gap": 0.1361,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.7881,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.6912,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4662,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3383
   },
   "35": {
    "n": 173,
    "mean_gap": 0.1469,
    "median_gap": 0.1319,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.7629,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.6596,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4702,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3546
   },
   "40": {
    "n": 189,
    "mean_gap": 0.1606,
    "median_gap": 0.1256,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.7437,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.611,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4486,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3283
   },
   "45": {
    "n": 402,
    "mean_gap": 0.16,
    "median_gap": 0.1256,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.743,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.6085,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.3891,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.2634
   },
   "50": {
    "n": 189,
    "mean_gap": 0.1173,
    "median_gap": 0.0808,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.6488,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.4842,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.4306,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3287
   },
   "55": {
    "n": 192,
    "mean_gap": 0.1072,
    "median_gap": 0.0637,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.6193,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.4544,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.3922,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.3035
   },
   "60": {
    "n": 189,
    "mean_gap": 0.1026,
    "median_gap": 0.0488,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.624,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.5062,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.3746,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.2816
   },
   "65": {
    "n": 154,
    "mean_gap": 0.1141,
    "median_gap": 0.0481,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.6625,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.481,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.2878,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.1818
   },
   "70": {
    "n": 152,
    "mean_gap": 0.1175,
    "median_gap": 0.0592,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.6696,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.4503,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.2858,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.1742
   },
   "75": {
    "n": 132,
    "mean_gap": 0.1397,
    "median_gap": 0.1043,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.7297,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.4728,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.3199,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.1919
   },
   "80": {
    "n": 127,
    "mean_gap": 0.1416,
    "median_gap": 0.0893,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.6865,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.3599,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.2323,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.0945
   },
   "85": {
    "n": 98,
    "mean_gap": 0.1442,
    "median_gap": 0.0927,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.5823,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.187,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.1751,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.0309
   },
   "90": {
    "n": 33,
    "mean_gap": 0.0898,
    "median_gap": 0.07,
    "mean_entropy_market_bits": 0.397,
    "mean_entropy_model_bits": 0.0,
    "mean_market_prob": 0.0898,
    "mean_model_prob": 0.0
   }
  }
 },
 "summary": {
  "mlb": {
   "first_checkpoint": 1,
   "last_checkpoint": 10,
   "gap_first": 0.0839,
   "gap_last": 0.2067,
   "gap_delta_last_minus_first": 0.1228,
   "entropy_market_first_bits": 0.9553,
   "entropy_market_last_bits": 0.8488,
   "entropy_market_delta_last_minus_first": -0.1065
  },
  "soccer_intl": {
   "first_checkpoint": 0,
   "last_checkpoint": 90,
   "gap_first": 0.163,
   "gap_last": 0.0898,
   "gap_delta_last_minus_first": -0.0732,
   "entropy_market_first_bits": 0.8152,
   "entropy_market_last_bits": 0.397,
   "entropy_market_delta_last_minus_first": -0.4182
  }
 },
 "as_of": "2026-09-17",
 "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}