{
  "edge_claimed": false,
  "method": "bucket rows by |model_prob - market_prob|; per-bucket model/market Brier + model_closer_rate",
  "sports": {
    "mlb": [
      {
        "bucket": "<.02",
        "n": 4649,
        "model_brier": 0.129506,
        "market_brier": 0.129087,
        "model_closer_rate": 0.4166
      },
      {
        "bucket": ".02-.05",
        "n": 5690,
        "model_brier": 0.162348,
        "market_brier": 0.161486,
        "model_closer_rate": 0.413
      },
      {
        "bucket": ".05-.10",
        "n": 8482,
        "model_brier": 0.179072,
        "market_brier": 0.177298,
        "model_closer_rate": 0.3479
      },
      {
        "bucket": ">=.10",
        "n": 8530,
        "model_brier": 0.177763,
        "market_brier": 0.129824,
        "model_closer_rate": 0.1994
      }
    ],
    "soccer_intl": [
      {
        "bucket": "<.02",
        "n": 554,
        "model_brier": 0.142768,
        "market_brier": 0.137637,
        "model_closer_rate": 0.2292
      },
      {
        "bucket": ".02-.05",
        "n": 679,
        "model_brier": 0.113592,
        "market_brier": 0.104293,
        "model_closer_rate": 0.3756
      },
      {
        "bucket": ".05-.10",
        "n": 741,
        "model_brier": 0.132395,
        "market_brier": 0.103844,
        "model_closer_rate": 0.4103
      },
      {
        "bucket": ">=.10",
        "n": 2291,
        "model_brier": 0.508022,
        "market_brier": 0.26553,
        "model_closer_rate": 0.1048
      }
    ]
  },
  "verdict": "mlb: at largest disagreement (>=.10, n=8530), market usually right (model_closer_rate=0.199, model_brier=0.1778 vs market_brier=0.1298). soccer_intl: at largest disagreement (>=.10, n=2291), market usually right (model_closer_rate=0.105, model_brier=0.5080 vs market_brier=0.2655).",
  "plot_written": true,
  "as_of": "2026-09-16",
  "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}