{
  "buckets": {
    "mlb": {
      "0-1pt": {
        "n": 19044,
        "moved_to_price": 0.5238,
        "outcome_rate": 0.4936,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": 0.0302
      },
      "1-3pt": {
        "n": 4763,
        "moved_to_price": 0.5251,
        "outcome_rate": 0.4951,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": 0.03
      },
      "3-6pt": {
        "n": 2029,
        "moved_to_price": 0.5206,
        "outcome_rate": 0.4564,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": 0.0642
      },
      "6-10pt": {
        "n": 782,
        "moved_to_price": 0.5179,
        "outcome_rate": 0.4706,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": 0.0473
      },
      "10pt+": {
        "n": 555,
        "moved_to_price": 0.4999,
        "outcome_rate": 0.4631,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": 0.0368
      }
    },
    "soccer_intl": {
      "0-1pt": {
        "n": 3564,
        "moved_to_price": 0.4208,
        "outcome_rate": 0.7045,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": -0.2837
      },
      "1-3pt": {
        "n": 541,
        "moved_to_price": 0.3456,
        "outcome_rate": 0.6128,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": -0.2671
      },
      "3-6pt": {
        "n": 65,
        "moved_to_price": 0.295,
        "outcome_rate": 0.6077,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": -0.3127
      },
      "6-10pt": {
        "n": 11,
        "moved_to_price": 0.2632,
        "outcome_rate": 0.5455,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": -0.2823
      },
      "10pt+": {
        "n": 57,
        "moved_to_price": 0.436,
        "outcome_rate": 0.7544,
        "moved_to_minus_outcome": -0.3184
      }
    }
  },
  "novelty": {
    "verdict": "INCREMENTAL",
    "closest_prior_work": "Moskowitz (2021, Journal of Finance), a cross-sport study of pricing in sports markets -- cross-sport (NBA/NFL/MLB/NHL/soccer) magnitude-bucketed price-move-vs-outcome test, ~50% open-to-close reversion. Choi & Hui (2014, JEBO) run the in-play soccer version, event-triggered by goals, finding underreaction to moderate surprises and overreaction to extreme ones.",
    "how_ours_differs": "Same bucketed-move-vs-outcome instrument, applied at consecutive-row (not event-triggered) grain in-game, to MLB + soccer_intl corpora we hold. Not a new method -- do not claim first-ever."
  },
  "as_of": "2026-09-16",
  "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}