{
 "source": "domains/*/knowledge/validation_ledger.jsonl (4 sports, premise-checked)",
 "note": "Every named mechanism we have tested, with its recorded verdict and evidence pointer. A NULL/REJECT/NOT_TESTABLE is honest market-efficiency evidence, not a failure. Measurement-hygiene artifact -- no money/advantage/return claim. as_of is the recorded run_ts (null for runs that predate run_ts stamping).",
 "verdict_buckets": {
  "confirmed": [
   "ARTIFACT_CONFIRMED",
   "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
   "CONFIRMED_LOCAL_incl_2026_OOS",
   "REPLICATED"
  ],
  "not_testable": [
   "NOT_REPLICABLE_NO_CORPUS",
   "NOT_TESTABLE"
  ],
  "null": "everything else (NULL, NULL_LOCAL, REJECT, PARTIAL, PROVISIONAL, FAILED_REPLICATION)"
 },
 "overall_counts": {
  "confirmed": 130,
  "null": 126,
  "not_testable": 31,
  "total": 287
 },
 "by_sport": {
  "basketball_nba": {
   "counts": {
    "confirmed": 45,
    "null": 33,
    "not_testable": 7,
    "total": 85
   },
   "mechanisms": [
    {
     "mechanism": "b2b_rest_penalty",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -1.73,
     "p": 0.005645490426098632,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=4732; avg margin on 0-rest (-1.41, n=856) vs >=1-day rest (0.32, n=3876)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "b2b_rest_penalty",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -1.955,
     "p": 0.0001174325580081608,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=7192; avg margin on 0-rest (-1.61, n=1278) vs >=1-day rest (0.35, n=5914)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "bench_continuity_dreb",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.00019,
     "p": 5.00899367962215e-06,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+stints_2024_25+zone_onoff_2024_25",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+stints_2024_25+zone_onoff_2024_25; n=76418; logit is_dreb~continuity_s restricted to <=2-starters-on-court stints, season 2024_25 (cf. full-lineup #1 eff=0.000574 p=1.9e-16 n=116960)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_ast_persistence_and_margin",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward; split-half team persistence r=0.7189 p=7.630669213904725e-06 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.4329 p=1.0611533850818573e-179 (n=3940 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:59:16Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_ast_persistence_and_margin",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_full_1977games",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_full_1977games; split-half team persistence r=0.7189 p=7.630669213904725e-06 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.4329 p=1.0611533850818573e-179 (n=3940 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:17Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_ast_persistence_replication_2024_25",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "replication_wave1_second_corpus",
     "evidence": "corpus=replication_wave1_second_corpus; espn_boxscores_2024_25.parquet (1,235 games, 2024-10-22..2025-04-13, 0 event_id overlap with the original's espn_boxscores.parquet) -- split-half team persistence r=0.8386 p=7.236217231280992e-09 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.4164 p=9.342131684914455e-104 (n=2460 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:28:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_fast_break_pts_persistence_and_margin",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward; split-half team persistence r=0.604 p=0.000409 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.2982 p=5.829e-29 (n=1342 team-games)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_fast_break_pts_persistence_replication_2024_25",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "replication_wave1_second_corpus",
     "evidence": "corpus=replication_wave1_second_corpus; espn_boxscores_2024_25.parquet (1,235 games, 2024-10-22..2025-04-13, 0 event_id overlap with the original's espn_boxscores.parquet) -- split-half team persistence r=0.7033 p=1.46e-05 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.2809 p=7.556e-46 (n=2460 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:28:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_largest_lead_persistence_and_margin",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward; split-half team persistence r=0.779 p=3.972e-07 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.8447 p=0 (n=1342 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:41:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_largest_lead_persistence_q8_2023_24",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_2023_24",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_2023_24; split-half team persistence r=0.8021 p=9.831e-08 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.8138 p=0 (n=2460 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T16:48:14Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_largest_lead_persistence_q8_2024_25",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_2024_25",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_2024_25; split-half team persistence r=0.6967 p=1.893e-05 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.813 p=0 (n=2458 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T16:48:14Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_largest_lead_persistence_q8_orig_2026_slice",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_orig_2026_slice",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_orig_2026_slice; split-half team persistence r=0.779 p=3.972e-07 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.8447 p=0 (n=1342 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T16:48:14Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_largest_lead_persistence_q8_pooled3season",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_3season_pooled_2023_24_thru_2026",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_3season_pooled_2023_24_thru_2026; persist: seasons r=['0.7790', '0.6967', '0.8021'] Fisher p=6.758e-16 pooled r=0.4587 CI95[0.1179,0.7028] -> PASS; margin: seasons r=['0.8447', '0.8130', '0.8138'] Fisher p=0 pooled r=0.8210 CI95[0.8128,0.8289] -> PASS; label old(CONFIRMED_LOCAL, 1 corpus)->new(REPLICATED)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T16:48:14Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_paint_pts_persistence_and_margin",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward; split-half team persistence r=0.6991 p=1.727e-05 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.3354 p=1.209e-36 (n=1342 team-games)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_paint_pts_persistence_replication_2024_25",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "replication_wave1_second_corpus",
     "evidence": "corpus=replication_wave1_second_corpus; espn_boxscores_2024_25.parquet (1,235 games, 2024-10-22..2025-04-13, 0 event_id overlap with the original's espn_boxscores.parquet) -- split-half team persistence r=0.763 p=9.452e-07 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=0.248 p=8.311e-36 (n=2460 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:28:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_tov_pts_persistence_replication_2024_25",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "replication_wave1_second_corpus",
     "evidence": "corpus=replication_wave1_second_corpus; espn_boxscores_2024_25.parquet (1,235 games, 2024-10-22..2025-04-13, 0 event_id overlap with the original's espn_boxscores.parquet) -- margin-sign flip REPRODUCES -- split-half team persistence r=0.6164 p=0.0002863 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=-0.3344 p=2.368e-65 (n=2460 team-games)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:28:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "clutch_lineup_shortening",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -6.3384,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+stints_2024_25+zone_onoff_2024_25",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+stints_2024_25+zone_onoff_2024_25; n=1052; paired: clutch distinct-player count (3.05) vs full-game >=5min rotation size (9.39), team-games reaching a clutch state, n=1052",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "clutch_usage_compression",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.6734,
     "p": 0.000198123285955365,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=255; regression slope of clutch_share~overall_share = 1.6734 (r=0.508, n=255); slope<1 means high-usage share compresses in clutch",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "clutch_usage_compression",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.5031,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=8164; regression slope of clutch_share~overall_share = 1.5031 (r=0.546, n=8164); slope<1 means high-usage share compresses in clutch",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "defender_matchup_skill_predictive_validity",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "defender_matchup_states_37395rows",
     "evidence": "corpus=defender_matchup_states_37395rows; per-defender (asof matchup FG%-allowed mean vs realized FG%-allowed mean), min 15 prior possessions + 2 windows/half: h1 r=0.5603 p=1.4849891848401277e-45 (n=535); h2 r=0.5139 p=1.1876985533285494e-36 (n=524)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:59:16Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_rate_dispersion_exceeds_poisson_noise__h2",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 1.1837,
     "p": 8.884736946655675e-08,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_pf_loo_season_mean (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_pf_loo_season_mean (split-half by date); n=1805; quasi-Poisson dispersion ratio phi=1.184 (chi2=2135.3, df=1804, p=8.88e-08) vs pure-noise phi=1.0, team-adjusted (leave-one-out season mean) expected total PF, n=1805 games, half=h2",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:14:11Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "garbage_time_bench_inflation",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0405,
     "p": 1.7318928298948596e-21,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=25307; bench pts/min in |margin|>=20 games (0.409, n=6770) vs closer games (0.369, n=18537)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "garbage_time_bench_inflation",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0417,
     "p": 1.9281372635120817e-32,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=38254; bench pts/min in |margin|>=20 games (0.408, n=10019) vs closer games (0.366, n=28235)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "home_court_advantage_magnitude",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 3.395,
     "p": 2.7068078284673925e-13,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=4762; avg margin home (1.70, n=2381) vs away (-1.70, n=2381); home win%=0.533",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "home_court_advantage_magnitude",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 3.704,
     "p": 5.316408916527916e-23,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=7222; avg margin home (1.85, n=3611) vs away (-1.85, n=3611); home win%=0.546",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "lineup_continuity_streak_vs_point_diff__2023-24",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0535,
     "p": 0.007983022429929003,
     "corpus": "stints_2023_24+2024_25",
     "evidence": "corpus=stints_2023_24+2024_25; n=2460; pearson r, opening-lineup continuity streak vs team-game point differential, n=2460 team-games, season=2023-24, mean streak=1.53",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:32:11Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "lineup_continuity_streak_vs_point_diff__2024-25",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0788,
     "p": 9.053805275341907e-05,
     "corpus": "stints_2023_24+2024_25",
     "evidence": "corpus=stints_2023_24+2024_25; n=2460; pearson r, opening-lineup continuity streak vs team-game point differential, n=2460 team-games, season=2024-25, mean streak=1.20",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:32:11Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "lineup_continuity_streak_vs_point_diff__combined",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "stints_2023_24+2024_25",
     "evidence": "corpus=stints_2023_24+2024_25; n=4920; 2023-24 vs 2024-25 independent-corpora legs, both required same sign: lineup_continuity_streak_vs_point_diff__2023-24(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=0.007983022429929003,eff=0.0535); lineup_continuity_streak_vs_point_diff__2024-25(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=9.053805275341907e-05,eff=0.0788)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:32:11Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "q1_slow_start_persists_replication_2024_25",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.5855,
     "p": 0.0006758767290428111,
     "corpus": "replication_wave1_second_corpus",
     "evidence": "corpus=replication_wave1_second_corpus; n=30; linescores_2024_25.parquet (1,321 games, disjoint season from the original's linescores.parquet/2025-26 run) -- split-half team persistence of q1_margin (own_q1-opp_q1 avg) r=0.5855 p=0.0006759 (n=30 teams); positive=fast starter, negative=slow starter",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:36:47Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "q1_slow_start_persists_split_half",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.7171,
     "p": 8.242505677740456e-06,
     "corpus": "linescores_derive_realized_team_games",
     "evidence": "corpus=linescores_derive_realized_team_games; n=30; split-half team persistence of q1_margin (own_q1-opp_q1 avg) r=0.7171 p=8.243e-06 (n=30 teams); positive=fast starter, negative=slow starter",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "q2_lead_extension_beyond_ar",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "linescores_2024_25+2025_26+player_boxscores",
     "evidence": "corpus=linescores_2024_25+2025_26+player_boxscores; signed AR(1) residual (fit on |q1_margin|<15, applied to |q1_margin|>=15, sign-flipped to lead direction: positive=extends beyond naive AR, negative=extra reversion beyond naive AR) per corpus. 2024_25: n_extreme=244 ar_slope=-0.0669 signed_resid_mean=1.557 p=0.007939; 2025_26: n_extreme=232 ar_slope=-0.0589 signed_resid_mean=2.282 p=3.429e-05",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:47:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rotation_size_persists_split_half",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.6807,
     "p": 3.485077636092909e-05,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env; n=30; split-half r of avg rotation size across 30 teams",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rotation_size_persists_split_half",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.6855,
     "p": 2.914579772740063e-05,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env; n=30; split-half r of avg rotation size across 30 teams",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "starter_minutes_vs_margin__combined",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date); n=7222; split-half-by-date replication: starter_minutes_vs_margin__h1(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=0.0030199696634352073,eff=-1.0689); starter_minutes_vs_margin__h2(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=0.0017282811431605927,eff=-0.9262)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:57:31Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "starter_minutes_vs_margin__h1",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -1.0689,
     "p": 0.0030199696634352073,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date); n=3612; band-midpoint trend slope=-1.0689 min/margin-pt p=0.00302 (n=4 bands); Kruskal-Wallis across raw bands H=826.49 p=7.786e-179, half=h1",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:57:31Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "starter_minutes_vs_margin__h2",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.9262,
     "p": 0.0017282811431605927,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date); n=3610; band-midpoint trend slope=-0.9262 min/margin-pt p=0.001728 (n=4 bands); Kruskal-Wallis across raw bands H=742.14 p=1.531e-160, half=h2",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:57:31Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "three_in_four_fatigue",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -1.213,
     "p": 0.00576102898574666,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=7222; avg margin 3-in-4 (-0.90, n=1870) vs not (0.31, n=5352)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "timeout_interrupts_opponent_run__combined",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "pbp_p1_json_timeout_windows (1289 games w/ timeout samples, split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=pbp_p1_json_timeout_windows (1289 games w/ timeout samples, split-half by date); n=2712; split-half-by-date replication: timeout_interrupts_opponent_run__h1(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=2.035138973602502e-65,eff=-0.7314); timeout_interrupts_opponent_run__h2(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=1.4901354024708188e-64,eff=-0.7308)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:43:51Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "timeout_interrupts_opponent_run__h1",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.7314,
     "p": 2.035138973602502e-65,
     "corpus": "pbp_p1_json_timeout_windows (1289 games w/ timeout samples, split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=pbp_p1_json_timeout_windows (1289 games w/ timeout samples, split-half by date); n=1357; paired t-test opponent PPM after-before mean diff=-0.7314 (n=1357), half=h1",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:43:51Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "timeout_interrupts_opponent_run__h2",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.7308,
     "p": 1.4901354024708188e-64,
     "corpus": "pbp_p1_json_timeout_windows (1289 games w/ timeout samples, split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=pbp_p1_json_timeout_windows (1289 games w/ timeout samples, split-half by date); n=1355; paired t-test opponent PPM after-before mean diff=-0.7308 (n=1355), half=h2",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:43:51Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "timeout_interrupts_opponent_run_replication_2022_23",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "replication_wave1_second_corpus",
     "evidence": "corpus=replication_wave1_second_corpus; n=2544; 2022-23 season (n_games=1230 local pbp, fully disjoint from the original's 2023-24-dominant pool) -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL; original bar ALPHA=0.01 MIN_EFFECT=0.3 MIN_GROUP_N=20 unchanged. split-half-by-date replication: timeout_interrupts_opponent_run__repl2022_23_h1(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=6.274345351637707e-58,eff=-0.6917); timeout_interrupts_opponent_run__repl2022_23_h2(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=1.8432011053141287e-48,eff=-0.6564)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:36:47Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "transition_frequency_pace_mismatch__combined",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "team_system_pbp_actions+games (event-level, season 2025-26)",
     "evidence": "corpus=team_system_pbp_actions+games (event-level, season 2025-26); n=2312; persistence(CONFIRMED_LOCAL,r=0.9581,p=9.641479756035794e-17); margin_relation(CONFIRMED_LOCAL,r=0.1452,p=1.7233046351646743e-06) -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL requires both legs; mechanisms.md #28",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:24:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "transition_rate_margin_relation",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.1452,
     "p": 1.7233046351646743e-06,
     "corpus": "team_system_pbp_actions+games (event-level, season 2025-26)",
     "evidence": "corpus=team_system_pbp_actions+games (event-level, season 2025-26); n=1077; pearson r of (asof trailing transition_rate, home-away) vs home_margin, leak-free as-of (>=5 prior games), n=1077 games, season 2025-26",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:24:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "transition_rate_split_half_persistence",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.9581,
     "p": 9.641479756035794e-17,
     "corpus": "team_system_pbp_actions+games (event-level, season 2025-26)",
     "evidence": "corpus=team_system_pbp_actions+games (event-level, season 2025-26); n=30; split-half (odd/even game occasion) pearson r of team transition_rate, 30 teams, season 2025-26",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:24:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "usage_redistribution_persistence",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.8005,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2025_26+quarter_box+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2025_26+quarter_box+four_factor_env; n=1657; split-half (odd/even absence occasions) pearson r of teammate fga_share-during-absence, 1657 team/missing-player/teammate triples, season 2025-26",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "assist_hub_concentration_offrtg",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 4.2094,
     "p": 0.34122028861006637,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2025_26+quarter_box+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2025_26+quarter_box+four_factor_env; n=30; OLS ppp_all_off ~ hub_share + hub_share^2, quadratic coef=4.2094 (linear=-1.4457), 30-team cross-section season 2025-26",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "b2b_x_margin_starter_minutes__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7192_teamgames_nonnull_rest (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7192_teamgames_nonnull_rest (split-half by date); n=7192; split-half-by-date replication: b2b_x_margin_starter_minutes__h1(verdict=NULL_LOCAL,p=0.6236651496655197,eff=-0.0372); b2b_x_margin_starter_minutes__h2(verdict=NULL_LOCAL,p=0.16210727512975848,eff=-0.0998)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:57:31Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "b2b_x_margin_starter_minutes__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0372,
     "p": 0.6236651496655197,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7192_teamgames_nonnull_rest (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7192_teamgames_nonnull_rest (split-half by date); n=3596; OLS starter_minutes~abs_margin+is_b2b+abs_margin:is_b2b, interaction coef=-0.0372 p=0.6237 (n=3596, b2b=622) half=h1",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:57:31Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "b2b_x_margin_starter_minutes__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0998,
     "p": 0.16210727512975848,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7192_teamgames_nonnull_rest (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7192_teamgames_nonnull_rest (split-half by date); n=3596; OLS starter_minutes~abs_margin+is_b2b+abs_margin:is_b2b, interaction coef=-0.0998 p=0.1621 (n=3596, b2b=656) half=h2",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:57:31Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "boxdetail_tov_pts_persistence_and_margin",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores_boxdetail_2026_01_20_onward; split-half team persistence r=0.4485 p=0.01293 (n=30 teams); same-game margin relation r=-0.3072 p=1.016e-30 (n=1342 team-games)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_rate_dispersion_exceeds_poisson_noise__combined",
     "verdict": "PROVISIONAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_pf_loo_season_mean (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_pf_loo_season_mean (split-half by date); n=3611; split-half-by-date replication: foul_rate_dispersion_exceeds_poisson_noise__h1(verdict=NULL_LOCAL,p=0.0009910881831200274,eff=1.1061); foul_rate_dispersion_exceeds_poisson_noise__h2(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=8.884736946655675e-08,eff=1.1837)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:14:11Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_rate_dispersion_exceeds_poisson_noise__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 1.1061,
     "p": 0.0009910881831200274,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_pf_loo_season_mean (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_pf_loo_season_mean (split-half by date); n=1806; quasi-Poisson dispersion ratio phi=1.106 (chi2=1996.6, df=1805, p=0.000991) vs pure-noise phi=1.0, team-adjusted (leave-one-out season mean) expected total PF, n=1806 games, half=h1",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:14:11Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_trouble_efficiency_shift__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date); n=11907; split-half-by-date replication: foul_trouble_efficiency_shift__h1(p=0.09233265524097367,eff=-0.09861); foul_trouble_efficiency_shift__h2(p=0.5641373319536911,eff=-0.03406)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:09:18Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_trouble_efficiency_shift__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.09861,
     "p": 0.09233265524097367,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date); n=5972; teammates_efficiency: foul-trouble-starter teammates (2.1916, n=437) vs control teammates (2.2903, n=5535), half=h1",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:09:18Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_trouble_efficiency_shift__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.03406,
     "p": 0.5641373319536911,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date); n=5935; teammates_efficiency: foul-trouble-starter teammates (2.2840, n=424) vs control teammates (2.3180, n=5511), half=h2",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:09:18Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_trouble_minutes_reduction",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.3683,
     "p": 0.000273574138973211,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2025_26+quarter_box+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2025_26+quarter_box+four_factor_env; n=12310; starter minutes-gap-vs-season-avg, >=2 first-half fouls (-0.47, n=3392) vs <2 (-0.10, n=8918), quarter_box q1+q2 coverage",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_trouble_usage_shift__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date); n=11907; split-half-by-date replication: foul_trouble_usage_shift__h1(p=0.6925140427845506,eff=0.00712); foul_trouble_usage_shift__h2(p=0.1879976030546455,eff=0.02403)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:09:18Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_trouble_usage_shift__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.00712,
     "p": 0.6925140427845506,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date); n=5972; teammates_fga_rate: foul-trouble-starter teammates (1.7300, n=437) vs control teammates (1.7229, n=5535), half=h1",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:09:18Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "foul_trouble_usage_shift__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.02403,
     "p": 0.1879976030546455,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores+pbp_p1_json (1289 games, split-half by date); n=5935; teammates_fga_rate: foul-trouble-starter teammates (1.7457, n=424) vs control teammates (1.7216, n=5511), half=h2",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:09:18Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ft_rate_environment_wins",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0729,
     "p": 0.7017855019728777,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env; n=30; cross-sectional r(team FTA rate, win%) across 30 teams, single snapshot (four_factor_env vs season-pooled win%, not season-matched exactly)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ft_rate_environment_wins",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0373,
     "p": 0.8446685516056522,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env; n=30; cross-sectional r(team FTA rate, win%) across 30 teams, single snapshot (four_factor_env vs season-pooled win%, not season-matched exactly)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "home_q4_edge_exceeds_other_quarters",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.1678,
     "p": 0.5470598329786256,
     "corpus": "linescores_derive_realized_team_games",
     "evidence": "corpus=linescores_derive_realized_team_games; n=1313; paired one-sample t-test, home team's q4_margin minus its own avg Q1-Q3 per-quarter margin, gap=-0.1678 pts p=0.5471 (n=1313 home team-games); positive=Q4-specific home advantage",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:41:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "pace_mismatch_variance",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.538,
     "p": 0.16330835435486013,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env; n=4762; Levene test margin-std: low-pace tercile std=15.91 (n=1594) vs high-pace tercile std=16.45 (n=1584)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "pace_mismatch_variance",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.73,
     "p": 0.07175264133154288,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env; n=7222; Levene test margin-std: low-pace tercile std=15.64 (n=2422) vs high-pace tercile std=16.37 (n=2392)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "player_b2b_scoring_dip",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0056,
     "p": 0.053267882755667545,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=42996; TS-proxy on 0-rest (0.5677, n=7777) vs >=1-day rest (0.5733, n=35219), min>=10",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "player_b2b_scoring_dip",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0053,
     "p": 0.0254248884154524,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=65103; TS-proxy on 0-rest (0.5686, n=11574) vs >=1-day rest (0.5739, n=53529), min>=10",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "q2_blowout_early_bench_deployment",
     "verdict": "NULL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "linescores_2024_25+2025_26+player_boxscores",
     "evidence": "corpus=linescores_2024_25+2025_26+player_boxscores; h1: OLS starter_minutes~abs_margin+q1_blowout (partial coef on Q1-lead magnitude, controlling for #49's already-CONFIRMED final-margin effect), half=h1 coef=-0.1121 p=0.09511 n=2390; h2: OLS starter_minutes~abs_margin+q1_blowout (partial coef on Q1-lead magnitude, controlling for #49's already-CONFIRMED final-margin effect), half=h2 coef=-0.1492 p=0.02587 n=2372",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:47:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "q3_margin_vs_halftime_deficit",
     "verdict": "NULL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "linescores_2024_25+2025_26_team_game_quarters",
     "evidence": "corpus=linescores_2024_25+2025_26_team_game_quarters; pearson r(first_half_margin, q3_margin) per corpus; negative=reversion (bigger halftime deficit -> bigger Q3 recovery), positive=persistence. 2024_25: r=-0.0146 p=0.4521 n=2642; 2025_26: r=0.0306 p=0.1171 n=2626",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:24:03Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "q3_volatility_close_halftime",
     "verdict": "PARTIAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "linescores_2024_25+2025_26_team_game_quarters",
     "evidence": "corpus=linescores_2024_25+2025_26_team_game_quarters; Levene test, Q3 own-quarter-points stdev vs Q2/Q4, restricted to games close at half (|first_half_margin|<3, the sim's own margin-bucket-3 advantage). 2024_25: n_close=468 Q3std=9.447 vs Q2std=6.089 (p=2.365e-18), vs Q4std=8.243 (p=0.001254); 2025_26: n_close=394 Q3std=9.004 vs Q2std=6.121 (p=6.021e-12), vs Q4std=8.798 (p=0.6719)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:24:03Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "quarter_volatility_persists_and_relates_to_margin_variance",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "linescores_derive_realized_team_games",
     "evidence": "corpus=linescores_derive_realized_team_games; split-half team persistence of quarter_volatility r=-0.1389 p=0.4642 (n=30 teams); cross-sectional r(team avg quarter_volatility, team full-game margin std) r=0.3022 p=0.1046 (n=30 teams)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rest_differential_margin__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date); n=3596; split-half-by-date replication: rest_differential_margin__h1(verdict=NULL_LOCAL,p=0.4445169277769486,eff=-0.018); rest_differential_margin__h2(verdict=NULL_LOCAL,p=0.6567174098633715,eff=-0.0105)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:43:51Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rest_differential_margin__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.018,
     "p": 0.4445169277769486,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date); n=1798; Pearson r(rest_diff=home_rest-away_rest, home margin) r=-0.0180 p=0.4445169277769486 (n=1798 games), half=h1",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:43:51Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rest_differential_margin__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0105,
     "p": 0.6567174098633715,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_team_game_frame_7222_teamgames (split-half by date); n=1798; Pearson r(rest_diff=home_rest-away_rest, home margin) r=-0.0105 p=0.6567174098633715 (n=1798 games), half=h2",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:43:51Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rim_pressure_def_dreb",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0479,
     "p": 0.27907851518974364,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+stints_2024_25+zone_onoff_2024_25",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+stints_2024_25+zone_onoff_2024_25; n=512; pearson r, rim_efg_allowed(off-on) vs season DREB/min, zone_onoff_2024_25, rim_fga>=30 both states, minutes>=200 (n=512)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rotation_size_stability_vs_net_rating",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.054,
     "p": 0.6817852315955694,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env; n=60; cross-sectional r(avg rotation size, avg net margin) across 60 team-seasons",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rotation_size_stability_vs_net_rating",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0213,
     "p": 0.8419974166934487,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26+four_factor_env; n=90; cross-sectional r(avg rotation size, avg net margin) across 90 team-seasons",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "star_injury_usage_vacuum_event_study",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0019,
     "p": 0.030394469202950913,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2025_26+quarter_box+four_factor_env",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2025_26+quarter_box+four_factor_env; n=12764; teammate fga_share deviation-from-normal-baseline, game-1-of-absence (0.0529, n=6946) vs games>=2-of-absence (0.0511, n=5818)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "three_in_four_fatigue",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.916,
     "p": 0.09197343185346031,
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26; n=4762; avg margin 3-in-4 (-0.67, n=1256) vs not (0.24, n=3506)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "clutch_free_throw_pressure_dip",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; pbp_possession_features.parquet has pbp_clutch_shots_attempted/pbp_clutch_pts_scored (field-goal clutch tracking only) and zero clutch-specific FT columns (checked: none found); player_boxscores.parquet only has game-total ftm/fta -- no clutch-window FT split exists anywhere in the local corpus.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "fast_break_pts_persistence_replication",
     "verdict": "NOT_REPLICABLE_NO_CORPUS",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "replication_wave1_second_corpus",
     "evidence": "corpus=replication_wave1_second_corpus; n=0; espn_boxscores.parquet home_fast_break_pts non-null for pre-2026 dates: 0 (of 1977 rows total) -- the only other local fast_break_pts column, player_breakdown_features.parquet, is a player-SEASON aggregate (season=2024-25, n=569, no date/game_id), wrong granularity for the split-half-by-date + same-game-margin design #34/#35 used. No team-game-level second-season corpus with this column exists locally.",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:36:47Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "paint_pts_persistence_replication",
     "verdict": "NOT_REPLICABLE_NO_CORPUS",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "replication_wave1_second_corpus",
     "evidence": "corpus=replication_wave1_second_corpus; n=0; espn_boxscores.parquet home_paint_pts non-null for pre-2026 dates: 0 (of 1977 rows total) -- the only other local paint_pts column, player_breakdown_features.parquet, is a player-SEASON aggregate (season=2024-25, n=569, no date/game_id), wrong granularity for the split-half-by-date + same-game-margin design #34/#35 used. No team-game-level second-season corpus with this column exists locally.",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:36:48Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "q2_foul_pace_state_interaction",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "linescores_2024_25+2025_26+player_boxscores",
     "evidence": "corpus=linescores_2024_25+2025_26+player_boxscores; n=0; premise check: four_factor_env.parquet is a team-SEASON aggregate (n=30 rows, one per team, foul columns found=none); player_boxscores.parquet's `pf` (present: True) is a game-TOTAL, not quarter-split; linescores.parquet carries points per quarter only, no foul/pace columns. No quarter-level foul or pace ingredient exists in the local corpus -- cannot test at Q2 granularity without a new PBP-quarter-foul build (out of scope this session).",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:47:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "switch_rate_defensive_efficiency",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "asof_defender_rollup_1656games",
     "evidence": "corpus=asof_defender_rollup_1656games; n=3282; def_switches_per_game_asof (home_/away_/diff_) is a constant (nunique=1) in asof_defender_rollup.parquet -- switch tracking not actually populated locally, premise-check finding, not a measured null.",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:59:16Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "transition_frequency_pace_mismatch",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; atlas_team_transition_defense.parquet is one row per TEAM (n=30), a single-season aggregate (as_of snapshot) -- using own/opp transition_freq as a per-game feature for games drawn from that same season is the season-final-aggregate-as-feature leak this codebase forbids. A leak-free version needs game-level transition rate rebuilt from pbp_possession_features.parquet's pbp_transition_count (a separate, larger build than 'reuse atlas' calls for) -- not attempted this session.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "travel_timezone_fatigue",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; no arena-location/travel-distance/timezone ingredient in data/domains/basketball_nba (fresh glob this session for *arena*/*travel*: 0 hits, all irrelevant) -- rest_days (#14) is the only schedule ingredient on disk; a time-zone-delta feature needs an arena-location join that does not exist locally.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    }
   ]
  },
  "mlb": {
   "counts": {
    "confirmed": 32,
    "null": 46,
    "not_testable": 8,
    "total": 86
   },
   "mechanisms": [
    {
     "mechanism": "big_inning_leadoff_gating",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0959,
     "p": 6.997452358024526e-220,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=42783; P(3+ runs this half-inning) | leadoff on-base (0.1219, n=13315) vs leadoff out (0.0260, n=29468)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "called_strike_dispersion_exceeds_binomial_noise",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": 9.687454384427847e-34,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=2406; quasi-binomial dispersion ratio phi=1.389 (chi2=3339.4, df=2405, p=9.69e-34) vs pure-noise phi=1.0, pooled called-strike rate on taken borderline(zone 11-14) pitches=0.0485, n=2406 games",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "called_strike_dispersion_exceeds_binomial_noise__replication_2024",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": 1.3622585874219367e-34,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2024",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2024; n=2428; replication on savant_full__2024 (2025 CONFIRMED_LOCAL was phi=1.389, n=2406): quasi-binomial dispersion ratio phi=1.392 (chi2=3379.1, df=2427, p=1.36e-34) vs pure-noise phi=1.0, pooled called-strike rate on taken borderline(zone 11-14) pitches=0.0634, n=2428 games",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:33:26Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "compassionate_umpire_count_zone__combined",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=49342; split-half-by-date replication: compassionate_umpire_count_zone__h1(p=1.0357444985632e-48,eff=-0.07654); compassionate_umpire_count_zone__h2(p=2.516327694576037e-51,eff=-0.08067)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:43Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "compassionate_umpire_count_zone__h1",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.07654,
     "p": 1.0357444985632e-48,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=24994; called-strike rate on taken boundary-zone(11-14) pitches: pitcher's-count(0-2/1-2) n=21803 rate=0.0137 vs hitter's-count(3-0/3-1) n=3191 rate=0.0903",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:43Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "compassionate_umpire_count_zone__h2",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.08067,
     "p": 2.516327694576037e-51,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=24348; called-strike rate on taken boundary-zone(11-14) pitches: pitcher's-count(0-2/1-2) n=21242 rate=0.0121 vs hitter's-count(3-0/3-1) n=3106 rate=0.0927",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:43Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "compassionate_umpire_count_zone__replication_2024",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2024",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2024; n=50058; replication on savant_full__2024 (split-half by date, same 0.05/p<0.01 bar as original): split-half-by-date replication: compassionate_umpire_count_zone__h1(p=9.86705246154261e-64,eff=-0.09924); compassionate_umpire_count_zone__h2(p=1.0985899332793406e-63,eff=-0.10264)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:33:26Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "contact_quality_persists_split_half",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.5932,
     "p": 3.241922081774863e-42,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=430; split-half Pearson r of mean launch_speed across 430 batters (>=20 BBE/half)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "edge_zone_widens_with_two_strikes",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.10488,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=702794; boundary-zone(11-14) rate at strikes==2 (0.5677) vs strikes<2 (0.4628)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "first_pitch_strike_suppresses_bb",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.095,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=160137; BB rate after 1st-pitch strike (0.0502) vs 1st-pitch ball/other (0.1452)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "gb_double_play_suppression",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.29563,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=21209; DP rate on GB w/ force (0.3187, n=9753) vs non-GB same state (0.0230, n=11456)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "high_leverage_strand_prevention",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.1863,
     "p": 0.006788326033826009,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=210; pearson r, pitcher-season K-rate vs RISP strand-rate, inn>=7 & |margin|<=2, n=210 pitchers (>=50 PA, >=15 RISP PA there)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "meta_label_divergence_bucket_table_all_positive",
     "verdict": "ARTIFACT_CONFIRMED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint+paper_temporal_split",
     "evidence": "corpus=ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint+paper_temporal_split; n=76; FAMILY verdict on the flagged n=186 table (every quartile incl. Q1 >50% CLV-positive): no quartile replicates on the independent no-selection corpus (all at-or-below coin), while the paper corpus keeps the all-positive pattern in its own second half -- the positivity is an ORDER-SELECTION artifact of the paper flow, not a divergence-magnitude meta-signal. Do not weight orders by these buckets. paper_second_half_Q1>0.5=True, Q4>0.5=True.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "mid_inning_pitching_change_interrupt__combined",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=4153; split-half-by-date, both halves required: mid_inning_pitching_change_interrupt__h1(p=1.7914314992321314e-08,eff=-0.06091); mid_inning_pitching_change_interrupt__h2(p=1.5532815832792717e-12,eff=-0.07592)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:04:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "mid_inning_pitching_change_interrupt__h1",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.06091,
     "p": 1.7914314992321314e-08,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=2074; paired t-test, batting-team runs/PA after(mean=0.1729) vs before(mean=0.2338) a mid-inning pitcher-ID change; SELECTION CONFOUND flagged explicitly, same non-causal scope as this row's own claim: relievers are typically summoned DURING an in-progress rally, so an elevated before-window reverting after is also the mechanical/regression-to-mean signature of WHEN changes get called, not proof of a reliever 'interrupt' causal effect.",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:04:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "mid_inning_pitching_change_interrupt__h2",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.07592,
     "p": 1.5532815832792717e-12,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=2079; paired t-test, batting-team runs/PA after(mean=0.1689) vs before(mean=0.2448) a mid-inning pitcher-ID change; SELECTION CONFOUND flagged explicitly, same non-causal scope as this row's own claim: relievers are typically summoned DURING an in-progress rally, so an elevated before-window reverting after is also the mechanical/regression-to-mean signature of WHEN changes get called, not proof of a reliever 'interrupt' causal effect.",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:04:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "pinch_sub_platoon_targeting__combined",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=4311; split-half-by-date, both halves required: pinch_sub_platoon_targeting__h1(p=3.4003811434701026e-60,eff=-0.1744); pinch_sub_platoon_targeting__h2(p=2.1843453919000496e-71,eff=-0.1844)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:04:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "pinch_sub_platoon_targeting__h1",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.1744,
     "p": 3.4003811434701026e-60,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=2098; one-sample proportion test, substitute same-hand rate=0.2841 vs same-half savant-PA baseline same-hand rate=0.4585 (n=2098 substitutes; pinch-runner/defensive-sub proxy noise per this row's own scope note).",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:04:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "pinch_sub_platoon_targeting__h2",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.1844,
     "p": 2.1843453919000496e-71,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=2213; one-sample proportion test, substitute same-hand rate=0.2657 vs same-half savant-PA baseline same-hand rate=0.4501 (n=2213 substitutes; pinch-runner/defensive-sub proxy noise per this row's own scope note).",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:04:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "pitch_efficiency_durability",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.2544,
     "p": 0.00021621032893582697,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=207; pearson r, starter-season avg pitches/PA vs avg innings-reached/start, n=207 starters (>=8 starts); bullpen-vs-rotation ERA-gap sub-claim not tested this session",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "putaway_whiff_dispersion_exceeds_binomial_noise__2024",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 1.2853,
     "p": 3.305068818126832e-20,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=2428; quasi-binomial dispersion ratio phi=1.285 (chi2=3119.4, df=2427, p=3.31e-20) vs pure-noise phi=1.0, pooled 2-strike putaway-whiff rate=0.1331, n=2428 games, 2024",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:35:27Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "putaway_whiff_dispersion_exceeds_binomial_noise__2025",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 1.2174,
     "p": 8.210902754669055e-13,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=2406; quasi-binomial dispersion ratio phi=1.217 (chi2=2927.8, df=2405, p=8.21e-13) vs pure-noise phi=1.0, pooled 2-strike putaway-whiff rate=0.1330, n=2406 games, 2025",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:35:27Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "putaway_whiff_dispersion_exceeds_binomial_noise__combined",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=4834; two-corpora (2025 vs 2024) replication: putaway_whiff_dispersion_exceeds_binomial_noise__2025(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=8.210902754669055e-13,eff=1.2174); putaway_whiff_dispersion_exceeds_binomial_noise__2024(verdict=CONFIRMED_LOCAL,p=3.305068818126832e-20,eff=1.2853)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:35:27Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "reliever_3in3d_fatigue",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.04412,
     "p": 0.0067472336517860184,
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025; n=8927; mean xwOBA allowed, appearances_last_3d>=2 (0.2522, n=118) vs appearances_last_3d==0 (0.2964, n=8809), season=2025",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "spin_rate_deception",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 4.327e-05,
     "p": 2.220446049250313e-16,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=100280; OLS whiff ~ release_spin_rate + release_speed (breaking pitches, swings only), spin coef=4.33e-05, n=100280",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "staff_dayafter_fatigue_chain",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.3915,
     "p": 0.004275732344067958,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount; n=2160; mean runs allowed next day, prior-day-pitches>=q75(160) (4.603, n=1063) vs <=q25(132) (4.211, n=1097), season=2024",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "staff_dayafter_fatigue_chain__fisher3",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": 0.0033647139992169606,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2026_team_day_pitchcount_pooled",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2023-2026_team_day_pitchcount_pooled; n=6325; Fisher combine of 3 original-season p-values ['0.58', '0.004276', '0.02323'] -> X2=19.524, p=0.003365; pooled-3 effect=0.2729 CI95[0.1147,0.4311] n=6407, sign-consistent=True",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T13:34:57Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "staff_dayafter_fatigue_chain__fisher4_incl_2026oos",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL_incl_2026_OOS",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": null,
     "p": 0.005305897447223403,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2026_team_day_pitchcount_pooled",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2023-2026_team_day_pitchcount_pooled; n=7535; Fisher combine of all 4 seasons (2023-2025 + 2026 OOS) ['0.58', '0.004276', '0.02323', '0.3209'] -> X2=21.797, p=0.005306; pooled-4 effect=0.2600 CI95[0.1122,0.4078] n=7447, sign-consistent=True",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T13:34:57Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "sweet_spot_consistency",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.1942,
     "p": 5.013142532331757e-05,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=430; split-half pearson r, batter sweet-spot(8-32deg) rate, n=430 batters (>=20 BBE/half)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "tto_decay_net_of_velo",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.01218,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=179383; OLS xwOBA ~ trip_number + velo_band(tercile), trip_number coef=0.01218, n=179383 PAs (trips<=4)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "two_strike_chase_rate_rises",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.11077,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=702794; chase rate at strikes==2 (0.2163) vs strikes<2 (0.1055)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "walk_economy_baserunner_inflation",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.065,
     "p": 2.008830313147707e-62,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=12218; runs-added-on-play after a walk, RISP (0.0650, n=4139) vs bases empty (0.0000, n=8079)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "baserunning_aggression_vs_outfield_arm_deterrence__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores; n=7746; split-half-by-date, both halves required: baserunning_aggression_vs_outfield_arm_deterrence__h1(p=0.27093763757164496,eff=0.0177); baserunning_aggression_vs_outfield_arm_deterrence__h2(p=0.3997331160038978,eff=-0.0136)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:14:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "baserunning_aggression_vs_outfield_arm_deterrence__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0177,
     "p": 0.27093763757164496,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores; n=3886; Pearson r, batting-team SB+CS attempts vs opponent's leave-one-out season outfieldAssists rate (n=3886); declared bar |r|>=0.05 and p<0.01.",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:14:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "baserunning_aggression_vs_outfield_arm_deterrence__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0136,
     "p": 0.3997331160038978,
     "corpus": "espn_boxscores",
     "evidence": "corpus=espn_boxscores; n=3860; Pearson r, batting-team SB+CS attempts vs opponent's leave-one-out season outfieldAssists rate (n=3860); declared bar |r|>=0.05 and p<0.01.",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:14:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "bullpen_day_scoring_structure__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=20508; split-half-by-date, both halves required: bullpen_day_scoring_structure__h1(p=0.8727017881303001,eff=0.0125); bullpen_day_scoring_structure__h2(p=0.31989879372103874,eff=0.0819)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:04:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "bullpen_day_scoring_structure__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0125,
     "p": 0.8727017881303001,
     "corpus": "player_gamelogs+games_current",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_gamelogs+games_current; n=10280; Welch t-test own-runs, bullpen-day(n=1981,mean=4.453) vs traditional(n=8299,mean=4.441); win-rate is DESCRIPTIVE ONLY (no bar declared for it in the row's own test spec): bullpen-day=0.308 traditional=0.546 -- a large gap but not gated on it (plausible selection confound: bullpen days correlate with short-staffed/already-losing situations, not proven here).",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:04:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "bullpen_day_scoring_structure__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0819,
     "p": 0.31989879372103874,
     "corpus": "player_gamelogs+games_current",
     "evidence": "corpus=player_gamelogs+games_current; n=10228; Welch t-test own-runs, bullpen-day(n=1809,mean=4.499) vs traditional(n=8419,mean=4.417); win-rate is DESCRIPTIVE ONLY (no bar declared for it in the row's own test spec): bullpen-day=0.310 traditional=0.541 -- a large gap but not gated on it (plausible selection confound: bullpen days correlate with short-staffed/already-losing situations, not proven here).",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:04:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "called_strike_deviation_relates_to_total_runs",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0084,
     "p": 0.6800362435170372,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=2406; pearson r(per-game called-strike-rate z-deviation on borderline pitches, game total runs), n=2406 games, r=0.0084 p=0.68",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "catcher_framing_multiseason_trend",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.00086,
     "p": 0.5046677203464223,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023+2024+2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2023+2024+2025; n=51; league-demeaned paired one-sample t-test, season3(2025)-season1(2023) called-strike-rate delta net of league-wide boundary-zone rate that season, n=51 catchers (>=500 borderline takes/season, present all 3 seasons); RAW (non-adjusted) delta was -0.01299 p=9.12e-14 -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL on its own, but that magnitude matches the league-wide boundary-zone rate shift (2023=0.0607 -> 2025=0.0485, delta=-0.0121) almost exactly, i.e. the raw signal is a league-wide confound (zone/rule/measurement shift), not catcher-specific decline -- the league-adjusted verdict above is the honest test of the row's actual (catcher-specific) claim",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:43:14Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "catcher_game_calling_persistence",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.168,
     "p": 0.17757905177033556,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=66; split-half pearson r, catcher's mean xwOBA-allowed while catching (raw, not pitcher/batter-adjusted), n=66 catchers (>=100 PA/half)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "contact_park_interaction__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=113254; split-half-by-date replication: contact_park_interaction__h1(p=0.8826868745957652,eff=0.0006); contact_park_interaction__h2(p=0.028571112893678148,eff=0.0092)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:11:05Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "contact_park_interaction__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0006,
     "p": 0.8826868745957652,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=56725; partial corr of (trailing_contact x park_factor) vs wOBA outcome, controlling for base terms [trailing_contact, park_factor], n=56725, half=h1",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:11:05Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "contact_park_interaction__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0092,
     "p": 0.028571112893678148,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=56529; partial corr of (trailing_contact x park_factor) vs wOBA outcome, controlling for base terms [trailing_contact, park_factor], n=56529, half=h2",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:11:05Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "defensive_efficiency_conversion",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.2358,
     "p": 0.20972494650026674,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=30; split-half pearson r, team residual-BABIP (actual - launch-condition-bin expected hit rate), n=30 teams",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "infield_shift_suppresses_gb_babip",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.00582,
     "p": 0.14636834895755088,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=51829; GB hit-rate shifted/strategic (0.2449, n=17522) vs standard (0.2508, n=34307)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "iso_strand_variance_compression",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.428,
     "p": 0.018290909202785206,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=30; team ISO vs game-level runs-scored std (proxy for strand-rate variance -- no LOB/strand field exists locally so runs-per-game std substitutes), n=30 teams",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "meta_label_divergence_bucket_Q1",
     "verdict": "FAILED_REPLICATION",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.45,
     "p": 0.823803,
     "corpus": "ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint",
     "evidence": "corpus=ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint; n=20; Q1_smallest_divergence: 9/20 CLV-positive, game-clustered CI [0.25, 0.6667] (17 games), naive-binomial p vs coin 0.823803. Second-corpus replication of the flagged n=186 all-quartiles->50% bucket table.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "meta_label_divergence_bucket_Q2",
     "verdict": "FAILED_REPLICATION",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.3158,
     "p": 0.167068,
     "corpus": "ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint",
     "evidence": "corpus=ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint; n=19; Q2: 6/19 CLV-positive, game-clustered CI [0.1, 0.5789] (14 games), naive-binomial p vs coin 0.167068. Second-corpus replication of the flagged n=186 all-quartiles->50% bucket table.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "meta_label_divergence_bucket_Q3",
     "verdict": "FAILED_REPLICATION",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.3158,
     "p": 0.167068,
     "corpus": "ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint",
     "evidence": "corpus=ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint; n=19; Q3: 6/19 CLV-positive, game-clustered CI [0.1364, 0.5556] (17 games), naive-binomial p vs coin 0.167068. Second-corpus replication of the flagged n=186 all-quartiles->50% bucket table.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "meta_label_divergence_bucket_Q4",
     "verdict": "FAILED_REPLICATION",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.3333,
     "p": 0.237885,
     "corpus": "ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint",
     "evidence": "corpus=ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint; n=18; Q4_largest_divergence: 6/18 CLV-positive, game-clustered CI [0.0625, 0.6111] (14 games), naive-binomial p vs coin 0.237885. Second-corpus replication of the flagged n=186 all-quartiles->50% bucket table.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "milb_debut_freshness_flag",
     "verdict": "REJECT",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.000394,
     "p": 0.87403,
     "corpus": "games_current_season_2026__savant_debut_proxy",
     "evidence": "corpus=games_current_season_2026__savant_debut_proxy; n=39; COVERAGE-COMPLETENESS axis (not a signal hunt): base Elo vs Elo+is_debut_game, scored on the debut-game EVAL SET only (n=39 of 134 resolved debut game_pks, bridge_resolved_frac=0.7777777777777778). brier_base=0.251234 brier_cand=0.250841 dm_p=0.87403 feat_w=0.0235 degen=True. planted_null verdict=REJECT (must be REJECT). truncation verdict=REJECT (should match real). SINGLE-CORPUS/PROVISIONAL: local savant coverage starts 2023 so no second independent season exists yet to replicate this debut proxy cross-season; frontier is 'a Brier win at best on rare events'.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "oaa_trailing_fielding_quality_babip_conversion",
     "verdict": "REJECT",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_playlevel__2025_2026",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_playlevel__2025_2026; n=55063; Trailing team OAA+catch-prob fielding_quality_z vs xwOBA-only baseline on out_converted (batted-ball out conversion, HR/ambiguous excluded). MIN_TEAMS=20 floor on top of MIN_TEST_N (true info cardinality is ~30 team-seasons, not raw play count). Per-corpus: season=2025(trail=2024) n_test=34993 teams=30 brier_delta=-0.0 dm_p=0.93359 degen=True verdict=REJECT null=REJECT trunc=REJECT || season=2026(trail=2025) n_test=20070 teams=30 brier_delta=-4e-06 dm_p=0.915252 degen=True verdict=REJECT null=REJECT trunc=REJECT",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "oaa_trailing_fielding_quality_babip_conversion",
     "verdict": "REJECT",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_playlevel__2025_2026",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_playlevel__2025_2026; n=55063; Trailing team OAA+catch-prob fielding_quality_z vs xwOBA-only baseline on out_converted (batted-ball out conversion, HR/ambiguous excluded). MIN_TEAMS=20 floor on top of MIN_TEST_N (true info cardinality is ~30 team-seasons, not raw play count). Per-corpus: season=2025(trail=2024) n_test=34993 teams=30 brier_delta=-1e-06 dm_p=0.767538 degen=False verdict=REJECT null=REJECT trunc=REJECT || season=2026(trail=2025) n_test=20070 teams=30 brier_delta=-6.7e-05 dm_p=0.16324 degen=False verdict=REJECT null=REJECT trunc=REJECT",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "of_alignment_xbh_suppression__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=61150; split-half-by-date replication: of_alignment_xbh_suppression__h1(p=0.19053332508228885,eff=-0.01202); of_alignment_xbh_suppression__h2(p=0.18070687348720132,eff=0.01458)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:43Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "of_alignment_xbh_suppression__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.01202,
     "p": 0.19053332508228885,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=30883; XBH rate on FB/LD, alignment='Strategic' n=1150 rate=0.1035 vs 'Standard' n=29733 rate=0.1155 (no 'Shaded' value exists locally for of_fielding_alignment -- premise-fixed bucket, see module docstring)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:43Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "of_alignment_xbh_suppression__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.01458,
     "p": 0.18070687348720132,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=30267; XBH rate on FB/LD, alignment='Strategic' n=995 rate=0.1317 vs 'Standard' n=29272 rate=0.1171 (no 'Shaded' value exists locally for of_fielding_alignment -- premise-fixed bucket, see module docstring)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:43Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "park_factor_run_modulation_split_half",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.3364,
     "p": 0.06913751095763163,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=30; split-half Pearson r of park avg total-runs/game across 30 parks",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "platoon_split_persistence",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0604,
     "p": 0.29635389576592025,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=301; split-half pearson r, per-batter platoon_delta (on-base-rate vs L minus vs R), n=301 batters (>=20 PA/hand/half)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:41:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "reliever_3in3d_fatigue",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.01839,
     "p": 0.40784746107906855,
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025; n=9054; mean xwOBA allowed, appearances_last_3d>=2 (0.3144, n=112) vs appearances_last_3d==0 (0.2960, n=8942), season=2023",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "reliever_3in3d_fatigue",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.03538,
     "p": 0.038139685521844886,
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025; n=8897; mean xwOBA allowed, appearances_last_3d>=2 (0.2621, n=114) vs appearances_last_3d==0 (0.2974, n=8783), season=2024",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "reliever_3in3d_fatigue__combined",
     "verdict": "PROVISIONAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025; n=26878; cross-season replication (3 independent season corpora): 2023:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.40784746107906855,eff=0.01839); 2024:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.038139685521844886,eff=-0.03538); 2025:CONFIRMED_LOCAL(p=0.0067472336517860184,eff=-0.04412)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "reliever_3in3d_fatigue__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025; n=26878; cross-season replication (3 independent season corpora): 2023:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.40784746107906855,eff=0.01839); 2024:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.038139685521844886,eff=-0.03538); 2025:CONFIRMED_LOCAL(p=0.0067472336517860184,eff=-0.04412) -- 1 season(s) significant in the REVERSE direction (fatigued group allowed LESS xwOBA, likely a selection confound, not counted as support)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "reliever_b2b_fatigue",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0049,
     "p": 0.26244366399755786,
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025; n=15484; mean xwOBA allowed, is_b2b>=1 (0.2881, n=2538) vs is_b2b==0 (0.2930, n=12946), season=2023",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "reliever_b2b_fatigue",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.00835,
     "p": 0.042600599472891396,
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025; n=15605; mean xwOBA allowed, is_b2b>=1 (0.2842, n=2629) vs is_b2b==0 (0.2926, n=12976), season=2024",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "reliever_b2b_fatigue",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.00877,
     "p": 0.03255505172875154,
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025; n=15629; mean xwOBA allowed, is_b2b>=1 (0.2833, n=2707) vs is_b2b==0 (0.2921, n=12922), season=2025",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "reliever_b2b_fatigue__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025; n=46718; cross-season replication (3 independent season corpora): 2023:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.26244366399755786,eff=-0.0049); 2024:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.042600599472891396,eff=-0.00835); 2025:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.03255505172875154,eff=-0.00877)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "same_type_repeat_whiff__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=276914; split-half-by-date replication: same_type_repeat_whiff__h1(p=9.551296347158915e-05,eff=0.00915); same_type_repeat_whiff__h2(p=6.8071488048865e-08,eff=0.0129)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:43Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "same_type_repeat_whiff__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.00915,
     "p": 9.551296347158915e-05,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=139160; whiff rate among swings: same-type-as-prior n=50218 rate=0.232 vs type-change n=88942 rate=0.2228",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:43Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "same_type_repeat_whiff__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0129,
     "p": 6.8071488048865e-08,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025 (split-half by date)",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025 (split-half by date); n=137754; whiff rate among swings: same-type-as-prior n=48655 rate=0.2395 vs type-change n=89099 rate=0.2266",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:01:43Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "staff_dayafter_fatigue_chain",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0789,
     "p": 0.5800315917525726,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount; n=2087; mean runs allowed next day, prior-day-pitches>=q75(163) (4.603, n=1037) vs <=q25(133) (4.524, n=1050), season=2023",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "staff_dayafter_fatigue_chain",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.3266,
     "p": 0.02322767392131013,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount; n=2078; mean runs allowed next day, prior-day-pitches>=q75(161) (4.570, n=1041) vs <=q25(131) (4.243, n=1037), season=2025",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "staff_dayafter_fatigue_chain__combined",
     "verdict": "PROVISIONAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount; n=6325; cross-season replication (3 independent season corpora): 2023:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.5800315917525726,eff=0.0789); 2024:CONFIRMED_LOCAL(p=0.004275732344067958,eff=0.3915); 2025:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.02322767392131013,eff=0.3266)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "staff_dayafter_fatigue_chain__oos_2026",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.191,
     "p": 0.32088383637625423,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2026_team_day_pitchcount_pooled",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2023-2026_team_day_pitchcount_pooled; n=1210; 2026 partial-season (through data-cache cutoff) OOS check, NOT part of the original 3-season test: mean runs allowed next day, prior-day-pitches>=q75(162) (4.735, n=603) vs <=q25(132) (4.544, n=607), season=2026",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T13:34:57Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "tto_x_platoon_interaction__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=179393; split-half-by-date, both halves required: tto_x_platoon_interaction__h1(p=0.8257639847760792,eff=-0.00076); tto_x_platoon_interaction__h2(p=0.08060959068519535,eff=-0.00626)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:41:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "tto_x_platoon_interaction__h1",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.00076,
     "p": 0.8257639847760792,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=90807; OLS xwOBA ~ trip_number + same_hand + trip_number:same_hand, PA-level (trips<=4), interaction coef=-0.00076, n=90807",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:41:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "tto_x_platoon_interaction__h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.00626,
     "p": 0.08060959068519535,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=88586; OLS xwOBA ~ trip_number + same_hand + trip_number:same_hand, PA-level (trips<=4), interaction coef=-0.00626, n=88586",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:41:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "zombie_runner_home_away_scoring_rate",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0294,
     "p": 0.5523765052635037,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=408; bottom-10th (home) scoring rate=0.5245 (n=204) vs top-10th (away)=0.4951 (n=204), diff=+0.0294, p=0.5524; declared bar |diff|>=0.05 & p<0.05",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:35:28Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "bullpen_leverage_chaining",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=0; none of ['bullpen_role', 'leverage_index', 'pitcher_role', 'reliever_rank'] present in savant_full columns (have: none)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "leverage_index_conversion",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": -0.0063,
     "p": 2.4939521043427066e-06,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=123316; run-swing proxy (not true WPA, none built locally), late(inn>=7)+close(margin<=1) (0.0286, n=79417) vs early(inn<7)+blowout(margin>=5) (0.0349, n=43899) -- confounded by blowout innings being mechanically higher-scoring-per-play; proxy cannot isolate a leverage effect from that confound",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "lineup_slot_run_value",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; fresh column check on savant_full__2025.parquet (42 cols): no batting-order-slot column (checked for */order/,*/slot/,*/lineup/* substrings, 0 hits) -- cannot be derived from at_bat_number alone (that resets by half-inning, not by lineup turn).",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "sequencing_and_cluster_luck",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; testing 'actual vs context-neutral-expected runs' needs a full run-expectancy/linear-weights model (RE24-style) rebuilt from base-out state transitions; no such model exists locally and building one is a separate infra item, not a column check -- not attempted this session (2-attempt budget: a naive runs-per-game proxy would not isolate sequencing from talent, so was not substituted).",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "speed_baserunning_advancement_value",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; on_1b/on_2b/on_3b (['on_1b', 'on_2b', 'on_3b']) are PRE-pitch occupant state only -- there is no post-play base-state or explicit extra-bases-taken field; inferring whether a runner from 1st reached 2nd vs 3rd on a single requires chaining consecutive PAs by runner identity (pinch-runner-safe), a bigger build than this mechanism check.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "stolen_base_breakeven_rate",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=0; no SB/CS rows in this corpus's events column (found: none)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "umpire_zone_call_consistency",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; fresh column check on savant_full__2025.parquet (42 cols): no umpire-identity column anywhere (checked for '*ump*' substring, 0 hits) -- no way to attribute a called-strike rate to an individual umpire on this corpus.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "weather_park_hr_modulation",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "savant_full__2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=savant_full__2025; n=0; none of ['temp', 'temperature', 'weather', 'wind_dir', 'wind_speed'] present in savant_full columns (have: none)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    }
   ]
  },
  "soccer": {
   "counts": {
    "confirmed": 29,
    "null": 27,
    "not_testable": 8,
    "total": 64
   },
   "mechanisms": [
    {
     "mechanism": "block_depth_counterattack_share",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.11262,
     "p": 2.726619317213936e-25,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches; n=8462; pearson r, |own def-action mean x - own shot mean x| block-depth proxy (reused from validate_pressing_defense) vs own play_pattern=='From Counter' share of shots, n=8462 team-match units",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:06:44Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "block_depth_counterattack_share__split_A",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.12906,
     "p": 3.495848502670338e-17,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__split_half; n=4232; split-half(even/odd match index) robustness check, half=A",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:14:45Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "block_depth_counterattack_share__split_B",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.09497,
     "p": 6.058198873122658e-10,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__split_half; n=4230; split-half(even/odd match index) robustness check, half=B",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:14:45Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "first_goal_timing_win_effect",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.3484,
     "p": 1.4168098308856926e-37,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400; n=310; first-scoring team won 263/310 decisive matches (binomial vs 0.5)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "goalkeeper_distribution_vs_retention",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.5954,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full_cache",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full_cache; n=56262; goal-kick retention rate, short/ground (0.9862, n=17786) vs long/high (0.3907, n=38476)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "home_advantage_neutral_split_half_by_era",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.2187,
     "p": 7.504284978143639e-08,
     "corpus": "soccer_intl_results__49425_played",
     "evidence": "corpus=soccer_intl_results__49425_played; n=49425; goal-diff true-home-minus-neutral effect, pre2000 0.2187 (n=24062, p=7.5e-08) vs post2000 0.4985 (n=25363, p=1.5e-46) -- replicates (same sign, both p<0.01) in both era halves",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "home_advantage_neutral_vs_true_goal_diff",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.3738,
     "p": 2.977833023506952e-45,
     "corpus": "soccer_intl_results__49425_played",
     "evidence": "corpus=soccer_intl_results__49425_played; n=49425; goal-diff true-home (0.6744, n=36350) vs neutral-venue (0.3007, n=13075)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "home_advantage_neutral_vs_true_win_rate",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0656,
     "p": 7.906321036670659e-38,
     "corpus": "soccer_intl_results__49425_played",
     "evidence": "corpus=soccer_intl_results__49425_played; n=49425; home-win-rate true-home (0.5074, n=36350) vs neutral-venue (0.4418, n=13075), chi2",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "leading_team_shot_rate_suppression",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.02423,
     "p": 2.1458058472832933e-37,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__3443_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__3443_matches; n=3352; team-match units, shots/min while leading vs tied",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "leading_team_shot_rate_suppression",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.02429,
     "p": 1.8880190292970648e-42,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches; n=4122; team-match units, shots/min while leading vs tied",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "pressing_ppda_vs_turnover_rate",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.558,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full_cache",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full_cache; n=6886; pearson r, team-match PPDA-proxy (opp passes / own Pressure+Duel+Interception count) vs (interceptions+recoveries)-per-opp-pass, n=6886 team-match units (expect negative: lower PPDA [more pressing] -> higher turnover rate)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "setpiece_vs_openplay_conversion",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.03489,
     "p": 9.826523190122512e-18,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__3443_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__3443_matches; n=86343; goal rate set-piece (n=4174) vs open-play (n=82169)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "setpiece_vs_openplay_conversion",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.03583,
     "p": 2.236229410769084e-21,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches; n=106721; goal rate set-piece (n=4810) vs open-play (n=101911)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "setpiece_xg_persistence__by_date",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.38782,
     "p": 0.004501253084517026,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__research_wave4",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__research_wave4; n=52; split-half(per-competition median match date) Pearson r of per-team mean set-piece statsbomb_xg, teams with >=10 set-piece shots/half, n_matches_scanned=3961 (dated subset)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:31:54Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "substitution_timing_moderates_shift",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.03629,
     "p": 1.582080115120951e-07,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches; n=4732; shift(after-before) early-sub(sub_t<=60,n=4207) vs late-sub(sub_t>=75,n=525) shots/min, n_matches_scanned=4235",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:44:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "substitution_timing_moderates_shift__replication_rest_competitions",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.04043,
     "p": 6.145166158704529e-06,
     "corpus": "disjoint_competition_group",
     "evidence": "corpus=disjoint_competition_group; n=2725; disjoint-competition-group replication (n_matches=2444, early n=2406, late n=319), competition in ['1__Bundesliga_2015_2016', '1__Bundesliga_2023_2024', 'African_Cup_of_Nations_2023', 'Champions_League_1970_1971', 'Champions_League_1971_1972', 'Champions_League_1972_1973', 'Champions_League_1999_2000', 'Champions_League_2003_2004', 'Champions_League_2004_2005', 'Champions_League_2006_2007', 'Champions_League_2008_2009', 'Champions_League_2009_2010', 'Champions_League_2010_2011', 'Champions_League_2011_2012', 'Champions_League_2012_2013', 'Champions_League_2013_2014', 'Champions_League_2014_2015', 'Champions_League_2015_2016', 'Champions_League_2016_2017', 'Champions_League_2017_2018', 'Champions_League_2018_2019', 'Copa_America_2024', 'Copa_del_Rey_1977_1978', 'Copa_del_Rey_1982_1983', 'Copa_del_Rey_1983_1984', 'FA_Women_s_Super_League_2018_2019', 'FA_Women_s_Super_League_2019_2020', 'FA_Women_s_Super_League_2020_2021', 'FA_Women_s_Super_League_2023_2024', 'FIFA_U20_World_Cup_1979', 'FIFA_World_Cup_1958', 'FIFA_World_Cup_1962', 'FIFA_World_Cup_1970', 'FIFA_World_Cup_1974', 'FIFA_World_Cup_1986', 'FIFA_World_Cup_1990', 'FIFA_World_Cup_2018', 'FIFA_World_Cup_2022', 'Frauen_Bundesliga_2023_2024', 'Indian_Super_league_2021_2022', 'La_Liga_1973_1974', 'La_Liga_2004_2005', 'La_Liga_2005_2006', 'La_Liga_2006_2007', 'La_Liga_2007_2008', 'La_Liga_2008_2009', 'La_Liga_2009_2010', 'La_Liga_2010_2011', 'La_Liga_2011_2012', 'La_Liga_2012_2013', 'La_Liga_2013_2014', 'La_Liga_2014_2015', 'La_Liga_2016_2017', 'La_Liga_2017_2018', 'La_Liga_2018_2019', 'La_Liga_2019_2020', 'La_Liga_2020_2021', 'Liga_F_2023_2024', 'Liga_Profesional_1981', 'Liga_Profesional_1997_1998', 'Ligue_1_2021_2022', 'Ligue_1_2022_2023', 'Major_League_Soccer_2023', 'NWSL_2018', 'NWSL_2023', 'North_American_League_1977', 'Premier_League_2003_2004', 'Serie_A_1986_1987', 'Serie_A_Women_2023_2024', 'UEFA_Euro_2020', 'UEFA_Euro_2024', 'UEFA_Europa_League_1988_1989', 'UEFA_Women_s_Euro_2022', 'UEFA_Women_s_Euro_2025', 'Women_s_World_Cup_2019', 'Women_s_World_Cup_2023']",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:55:32Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "substitution_timing_moderates_shift__split_A",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.03165,
     "p": 0.000688104487794222,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__split_half; n=2369; split-half(even/odd match index) robustness check, half=A",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:08:30Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "substitution_timing_moderates_shift__split_B",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.04066,
     "p": 6.79871607957987e-05,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__split_half; n=2363; split-half(even/odd match index) robustness check, half=B",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:08:30Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "tactical_shift_shot_rate_change",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.02051,
     "p": 1.2491783999070364e-43,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full_cache",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full_cache; n=4356; shots/min after own team's 1st Tactical Shift vs before, paired, n=4356 team-match units",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "tournament_vs_friendly_scoring_environment",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.1027,
     "p": 8.520001721880391e-08,
     "corpus": "soccer_intl_results__49425_played",
     "evidence": "corpus=soccer_intl_results__49425_played; n=49425; total-goals/match competitive (2.9774, n=31037) vs friendly (2.8748, n=18388)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "trailing_team_shot_rate",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.02031,
     "p": 1.8912011901895107e-35,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches; n=4122; team-match units, shots/min while trailing vs tied",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:44:56Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "trailing_team_shot_rate__split_A",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.02189,
     "p": 2.8548224270261507e-21,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__split_half; n=2073; split-half(even/odd match index) robustness check, half=A",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:08:30Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "trailing_team_shot_rate__split_competition_A",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.02129,
     "p": 1.2084266456704304e-17,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__competition_split",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__competition_split; n=1947; split-half(whole-competition group) robustness check, group=A, n_matches_scanned=1981",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T15:31:29Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "xg_rebound_cluster_calibration",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.10411,
     "p": 4.703510485301485e-143,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches; n=99284; mean(summed cluster xG - goal indicator), cluster(n=8114) vs single-shot(n=91170) possessions, n_matches_scanned=4235",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:06:44Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "xg_rebound_cluster_calibration__split_A",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.10239,
     "p": 1.6295826347659961e-71,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__split_half; n=49833; split-half(even/odd match index) robustness check, half=A",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:14:45Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "xg_rebound_cluster_calibration__split_B",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.10584,
     "p": 1.8876120899388924e-73,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__split_half; n=49451; split-half(even/odd match index) robustness check, half=B",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:14:45Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "xg_supremacy_persistence",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.9254,
     "p": 5.375653751210414e-60,
     "corpus": "soccer_flatfile_25834_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=soccer_flatfile_25834_matches; n=140; split-half pearson r, per-team mean xg-supremacy_asof, n=140 teams (>=10 games/half, 25,834-match corpus)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:59:42Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "xg_supremacy_persistence__replication_continental_top4",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.9495,
     "p": 1.449765241976791e-46,
     "corpus": "disjoint_competition_group",
     "evidence": "corpus=disjoint_competition_group; n=91; disjoint-competition-group replication, div in ['D1', 'F1', 'I1', 'SP1']: split-half pearson r, per-team mean xg-supremacy_asof, n=91 teams (>=10 games/half, 25,834-match corpus)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:55:32Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "xg_supremacy_persistence__replication_english_pyramid",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.8469,
     "p": 1.7423469707866546e-14,
     "corpus": "disjoint_competition_group",
     "evidence": "corpus=disjoint_competition_group; n=49; disjoint-competition-group replication, div in ['E0', 'E1']: split-half pearson r, per-team mean xg-supremacy_asof, n=49 teams (>=10 games/half, 25,834-match corpus)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:55:32Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "away_goal_timing_asymmetry",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0048,
     "p": 0.8048931189080817,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json; n=330; combined shot-rate shift (after-before, matched window) around the match's first goal, away-team-scored (0.0618, n=158) vs home-team-scored (0.0570, n=172)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "defensive_block_height_vs_opponent_xg",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0078,
     "p": 0.5167044246339553,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full_cache",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full_cache; n=6872; pearson r, |own defensive-action mean x - own shot mean x| (direction-agnostic block-height/compactness proxy) vs opponent mean xG-per-shot, n=6872 team-match units",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "finishing_skill_persists_split_half",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0238,
     "p": 0.7926632391671011,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400; n=124; split-half Pearson r of (goals - sum xG) across 124 players (>=8 shots/half)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "fixture_congestion_short_rest_effect",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0445,
     "p": 0.8690442570883141,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400; n=380; corpus A: goal-diff short-rest<=4d (0.042, n=24) vs normal-rest (-0.003, n=356)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "fouls_suppress_opponent_sot",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0369,
     "p": 4.572921029031655e-17,
     "corpus": "soccer_flatfile_25834_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=soccer_flatfile_25834_matches; n=51662; partial pearson r (fouls vs opponent SOT, controlling total_shots)=0.0369 (raw r=-0.0149, p_raw=0.00072), n=51662 team-match units pooled both sides",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:59:42Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "gk_distribution_vs_buildup_xg",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0041,
     "p": 7.680951152981124e-87,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full_cache",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full_cache; n=69395; Mann-Whitney U, buildup xG in short/ground goal-kick possessions (mean=0.0084, median=0.0000, n=25193) vs long/high (mean=0.0042, median=0.0000, n=44202); mean_gap=+0.0041 median_gap=+0.0000",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:46:46Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "home_advantage_by_matchweek_tercile",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.1071,
     "p": 0.4576676817792631,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json; n=200; home win-rate by match-week tercile (corpus A only): {'early': 0.3429, 'mid': 0.4, 'late': 0.45}",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "injury_time_added_goals_rate",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.00321,
     "p": 0.009894914011615947,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full_cache",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full_cache; n=9846; goals-per-minute, added-time (0.03288, 654 goals / 19890 min) vs regulation (0.02967, 9192 goals / 309812 min)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "momentum_last_result_effect",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0798,
     "p": 0.12626186833570255,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400; n=380; corpus A: win-rate after a prior win (0.412, n=136) vs after no prior win (0.332, n=244)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ppda_h1_vs_shot_quality_conceded_h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0494,
     "p": 0.32669368879631727,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta_400__A_epl_B_wsl",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta_400__A_epl_B_wsl; n=397; pearson r, own 1st-half PPDA-proxy vs opponent's 2nd-half xG-per-shot (forward split, n=397 team-match units), corpus=A",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:22:03Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ppda_h1_vs_shot_quality_conceded_h2",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0019,
     "p": 0.9704054993700006,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta_400__A_epl_B_wsl",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta_400__A_epl_B_wsl; n=389; pearson r, own 1st-half PPDA-proxy vs opponent's 2nd-half xG-per-shot (forward split, n=389 team-match units), corpus=B",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:22:03Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ppda_h1_vs_shot_quality_conceded_h2__combined",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta_400__A_epl_B_wsl",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta_400__A_epl_B_wsl; n=786; cross-competition-group replication (2 corpora, A=EPL/B=WSL): A:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.32669368879631727,eff=0.0494); B:NULL_LOCAL(p=0.9704054993700006,eff=0.0019)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:22:03Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "prior_xg_pregame_beats_goals_poisson_base",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0086836,
     "p": 0.233257,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_asof_pregame__A_B",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_asof_pregame__A_B; n=324; split-half A(EPL): n=170 brier 0.238090->0.246773 dm_p=0.2333 wins=False | B(WSL): n=154 brier 0.202416->0.184934 dm_p=0.06825 wins=False",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "red_card_suppresses_shot_rate",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.03385,
     "p": 3.578036751010597e-15,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__3443_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__3443_matches; n=428; shots/min after send-off vs before, same team+match, n_matches_scanned=3443",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "red_card_suppresses_shot_rate",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.03385,
     "p": 8.990224423872522e-17,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches; n=481; shots/min after send-off vs before, same team+match, n_matches_scanned=4235",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "referee_card_rate_persistence_at_scale",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.2999,
     "p": 0.0635764602051326,
     "corpus": "soccer_flatfile_25834_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=soccer_flatfile_25834_matches; n=39; split-half pearson r, per-referee card-rate (total_cards/total_fouls), n=39 referees (>=5 matches/half, 10,251-match corpus)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:59:42Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "setpiece_xg_persistence__by_competition",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.39438,
     "p": 0.2935618103778184,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__research_wave4_competition",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__research_wave4_competition; n=9; split-half(whole-competition group) Pearson r of per-team mean set-piece statsbomb_xg, teams with >=10 set-piece shots/half, group_A_matches=1981, group_B_matches=1980",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T15:43:41Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "setpiece_xg_persistence__by_index",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.27827,
     "p": 0.04160617135489328,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__research_wave4",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__research_wave4; n=54; split-half(even/odd event-file index) Pearson r of per-team mean set-piece statsbomb_xg, teams with >=10 set-piece shots/half, n_matches_scanned=4235",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:31:54Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "setpiece_xg_share_vs_possession",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0288,
     "p": 0.016800607927335988,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full_cache",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full_cache; n=6879; pearson r, team-match pass-share (possession proxy) vs set-piece-xG/total-xG share, n=6879 team-match units",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "state_conditioned_shot_model_vs_naive_full_power",
     "verdict": "PROVISIONAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.004755,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta_full__3126_matches_20_competitions",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta_full__3126_matches_20_competitions; n=3126; full-corpus-power gate (F6): 20 competitions / 3126 matches, 3 disjoint groups (mens_league/womens_league/international_tournament/other); pooled panel-A delta_ll(naive-model)=-0.00475 CI95=[-0.006622, -0.003579] (competition-clustered bootstrap); pooled panel-B delta_brier=0.00128 CI95=[-0.002395, 0.005546]; survivors_A=[]; verdict=PROVISIONAL_SURVIVOR",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "state_conditioned_shot_model_vs_naive_full_power",
     "verdict": "PROVISIONAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.004585,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta_full__3882_matches_43_competitions",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta_full__3882_matches_43_competitions; n=3882; full-corpus-power gate (F6): 43 competitions / 3882 matches, 4 disjoint groups (mens_league/womens_league/international_tournament/other); pooled panel-A delta_ll(naive-model)=-0.00458 CI95=[-0.005969, -0.003597] (competition-clustered bootstrap); pooled panel-B delta_brier=0.00215 CI95=[-0.001124, 0.005857]; survivors_A=['1__Bundesliga_2023_2024', 'La_Liga_2016_2017', 'La_Liga_2018_2019', 'La_Liga_2020_2021', 'UEFA_Women_s_Euro_2025']; verdict=PROVISIONAL_SURVIVOR",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T08:28:38Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "substitution_shot_rate_change",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.00863,
     "p": 6.27948651415448e-07,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__3443_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__3443_matches; n=6729; shots/min in 15min after 1st sub vs 15min before, per team-match",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "substitution_shot_rate_change",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.00862,
     "p": 4.6365312268998327e-08,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__4235_matches; n=8304; shots/min in 15min after 1st sub vs 15min before, per team-match",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "substitution_timing_moderates_shift__replication_big4_2015_16",
     "verdict": "FAILED_REPLICATION",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.01861,
     "p": 0.15199050726817998,
     "corpus": "disjoint_competition_group",
     "evidence": "corpus=disjoint_competition_group; n=1691; disjoint-competition-group replication (n_matches=1517, early n=1536, late n=155), competition in ['Serie_A_2015_2016', 'La_Liga_2015_2016', 'Premier_League_2015_2016', 'Ligue_1_2015_2016']",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:55:32Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "trailing_team_shot_rate__split_B",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.01871,
     "p": 5.733727729697098e-16,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__split_half; n=2049; split-half(even/odd match index) robustness check, half=B",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T10:08:30Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "trailing_team_shot_rate__split_competition_B",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.01926,
     "p": 2.759201357543085e-17,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_events_full__competition_split",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_events_full__competition_split; n=1899; split-half(whole-competition group) robustness check, group=B, n_matches_scanned=1980",
     "as_of": "2026-07-11T15:31:29Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "xg_diff_asof_adds_to_score_minute_ingame_base",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0129888,
     "p": 0.677992,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_asof_ingame__A_B__min30_60_75",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_asof_ingame__A_B__min30_60_75; n=1200; min30 A:n=200 0.197271->0.195606 p=0.4198 wins=False B:n=200 0.170695->0.159971 p=0.5776 wins=False | min60 A:n=200 0.127919->0.129006 p=0.678 wins=False B:n=200 0.112323->0.125312 p=0.3509 wins=False | min75 A:n=200 0.086762->0.092818 p=0.1217 wins=False B:n=200 0.093832->0.105763 p=0.2696 wins=False",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "corner_delivery_side_conversion",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json; n=0; corner-taker footedness is not in the StatsBomb event or lineup schema locally -- would need an external footedness lookup, a v2 ingredient.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "extra_time_knockout_fatigue",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json; n=0; both corpora (EPL 2015/16, FA WSL) are league-season round-robin competitions with no knockout legs -- every cached event file's `period` value-set is {1,2}, confirmed this session; no extra-time periods exist to test.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "home_advantage_crowd_component",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json; n=0; matches/*.json has a `stadium` field but no `attendance` field (0 non-null of 400 rows checked) -- no attendance/crowd-size proxy exists locally.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "penalty_conversion_stability_split_half",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400; n=0; 92 penalties across 56 distinct takers in the 400-match corpus, only 0 takers have >=1 penalty in BOTH season halves -- too sparse for a per-taker split-half correlation",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "referee_card_rate_persistence",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json; n=0; fewer than 10 referees with >=3 matches per half",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "squad_rotation_cup_vs_league",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json; n=0; competition_stage for all 400 corpus matches is uniformly 'Regular Season' (value counts: {'Regular Season': 400}) -- no cup fixtures exist in this slice to contrast against league fixtures.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "weather_pitch_condition_effect",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400; n=0; none of ['pitch_condition', 'temperature', 'weather', 'wind_speed'] present in match_meta columns (have: none); StatsBomb event files carry no weather/pitch field either",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "yellow_card_suspension_effect",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json",
     "evidence": "corpus=statsbomb_match_meta__400+matches_json; n=0; accumulated-yellow suspension tracking needs each player's FULL-season card history; the 400-match corpus is a partial slice (200/380 per corpus) so any suspension inferred from it would be an artifact of the missing games, not a real ban.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    }
   ]
  },
  "tennis": {
   "counts": {
    "confirmed": 24,
    "null": 20,
    "not_testable": 8,
    "total": 52
   },
   "mechanisms": [
    {
     "mechanism": "altitude_effect_on_serve_ace_rate",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.0083,
     "p": 2.9385367563821244e-23,
     "corpus": "travel_scouting_matches_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=travel_scouting_matches_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=27463; combined ace rate >= 500m altitude 0.0722 (n=2522) vs < 500m 0.0805 (n=24941)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "altitude_effect_on_serve_ace_rate__replication_years_2015_2020",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.0078,
     "p": 3.658736553887106e-11,
     "corpus": "travel_scouting_disjoint_year_slice",
     "evidence": "corpus=travel_scouting_disjoint_year_slice; n=14329; disjoint year-slice replication, season in [2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020]: combined ace rate >= 500m altitude 0.0741 (n=1320) vs < 500m 0.0819 (n=13009)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:50:52Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "altitude_effect_on_serve_ace_rate__replication_years_2021_2025",
     "verdict": "REPLICATED",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.0089,
     "p": 6.301489212862564e-14,
     "corpus": "travel_scouting_disjoint_year_slice",
     "evidence": "corpus=travel_scouting_disjoint_year_slice; n=13134; disjoint year-slice replication, season in [2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025]: combined ace rate >= 500m altitude 0.0701 (n=1202) vs < 500m 0.0790 (n=11932)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T13:50:52Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ball_cycle_serve_speed_kmh",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -1.668,
     "p": 7.40495035535633e-12,
     "corpus": "slam_points",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points; n=256477; speed_kmh fresh(games1-2 post-change) 137.3905km/h (n=142715) vs worn(pre-change) 139.0585km/h (n=113762), Welch t=-6.850",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:00:57Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ball_cycle_serve_speed_kmh__split_A",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -1.5865,
     "p": 2.935509734005455e-06,
     "corpus": "slam_points__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points__split_half; n=128238; speed_kmh fresh(games1-2 post-change) 138.3385km/h (n=71344) vs worn(pre-change) 139.9250km/h (n=56894), Welch t=-4.675",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:00:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ball_cycle_serve_speed_kmh__split_B",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -1.7488,
     "p": 5.541231060365282e-07,
     "corpus": "slam_points__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points__split_half; n=128239; speed_kmh fresh(games1-2 post-change) 136.4429km/h (n=71371) vs worn(pre-change) 138.1917km/h (n=56868), Welch t=-5.007",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:00:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "best_of_5_vs_3_upset_rate",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.3059,
     "p": 1.5408510212684304e-23,
     "corpus": "matches_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=40802; logit upset ~ best_of==5 + |rank_diff|, bo5 coef=-0.3059, n=40802",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "bp_save_differential_predicts_outcome_partial",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 4.0083,
     "p": 2.0708245087791122e-268,
     "corpus": "match_stats_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=match_stats_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=27937; logit p1_win ~ bp_diff + serve_diff, bp_diff coef=4.0083 (p=2.07e-268) vs serve_diff coef=48.1141, n=27937 -- bp_diff survives the serve_diff control but its magnitude is small relative to overall serve dominance",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "break_point_conversion_by_set_number",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.017,
     "p": 0.0014812730326301605,
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points_2011_2015; n=34145; break-point conversion rate, set>=3 (0.4113, n=16102) vs set==1 (0.4283, n=18043)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "clay_grass_specialization_persistence",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.3003,
     "p": 6.576083645477168e-05,
     "corpus": "matches_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=171; split-half pearson r, player Clay-minus-Hard win-rate, n=171 players",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "deuce_game_length_next_server_fatigue",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.0313,
     "p": 7.936002789032278e-15,
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points_2011_2015; n=67225; next-hold-rate for the SAME server 2 games later, after a long (>=8pt) game (0.7093, n=16531) vs a short game (0.7407, n=50694)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "dominance_margin_predicts_outcome_partial",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.0468,
     "p": 0.03470280574996565,
     "corpus": "matches_asof_setdetail_schedule_density_atp_wta",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_asof_setdetail_schedule_density_atp_wta; n=29229; logit p1_win ~ avg_games_per_set_asof_diff + rank_diff, coef=-0.0468 (coef/se=-2.11), n=29229 -- declared bar |coef|/se>=2 & p<0.05; direction is NEGATIVE (opposite the causal story: a bigger prior game-margin advantage over the opponent predicts a LOWER win prob net of rank), echoing this ledger's other folklore-reversing rows (#11, #21, #28)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:02:39Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "double_fault_rate_by_set_number",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.0069,
     "p": 4.6573874292738925e-27,
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points_2011_2015; n=543158; DF rate set>=3 0.0353 (n=176374) vs set==1 0.0422 (n=185868)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "fatigue_load_correlates_with_retirement",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0883,
     "p": 0.006221829291124185,
     "corpus": "atp_wta_matches_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=atp_wta_matches_2015_2025; n=30616; combined matches_last_7d retirement=True 0.951 (n=1044) vs False 0.862 (n=29572)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "first_set_winner_match_win_rate",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.3071,
     "p": 0.0,
     "corpus": "atp_wta_matches_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=atp_wta_matches_2015_2025; n=41634; match-win rate given first-set win = 0.8071 (n=41634)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "h2h_recency_vs_ranking",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 1.4493,
     "p": 1.6024476733449488e-33,
     "corpus": "matches_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=3583; logit p1_win ~ prior_h2h_rate_p1 + rank_diff, prior-H2H coef=1.4493, n=3583 (>=3 prior meetings floor)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "height_x_surface_interaction",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0257,
     "p": 1.6081361986686162e-09,
     "corpus": "matches_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=12130; logit p1_win ~ height_diff*is_grass (ATP-only, height join), interaction coef=0.02570, n=12130 (Grass+Clay matches only)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "lefty_advantage_on_return",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.035,
     "p": 5.8494160783245216e-06,
     "corpus": "atp_wta_matches_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=atp_wta_matches_2015_2025; n=4189; right-handed player win-rate vs left-handed opponent 0.5350 (n=4189, |rank_diff|<=50)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "long_travel_effect_on_win_prob_partial",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.0699,
     "p": 7.204366964524564e-52,
     "corpus": "travel_scouting_matches_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=travel_scouting_matches_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=26950; logit p1_win ~ travel_diff_1000mi + rank_diff, travel coef=-0.0699 (per 1000mi p1 traveled more than p2), n=26950, controls for rank_diff so this is net of the ranking gap",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "point_to_point_momentum",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0216,
     "p": 6.532332078294521e-49,
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points_2011_2015; n=456383; same-server-same-game momentum: server_won rate after winning prev point (0.6173, n=267014) vs after losing prev point (0.5958, n=189369)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "retirement_rate_by_round_and_surface",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0189,
     "p": 6.340664884275521e-12,
     "corpus": "matches_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=41886; retirement-rate chi2 by round p=6.341e-12; by surface p=0.08368, surface rates: {'Clay': 0.029, 'Grass': 0.028, 'Hard': 0.0326, 'Unknown': 0.0137}",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "serve_advantage_by_surface",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.02021,
     "p": 1.1336525903737875e-40,
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points_2011_2015; n=541604; server win-rate Clay 0.5936 (n=142143) vs Hard+Grass 0.6139 (n=399461)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "serve_speed_decay_within_match",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": -0.9041,
     "p": 3.9342004896414496e-36,
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points_2011_2015; n=2804; mean per-match (2nd-half - 1st-half) serve speed km/h across 2804 matches",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "upset_rate_by_round",
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "confirmed",
     "effect": 0.0754,
     "p": 2.038476147643623e-09,
     "corpus": "matches_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=40794; upset rate by round: {'RR': 0.3124, 'R64': 0.3345, 'R128': 0.3496, 'R16': 0.3536, 'QF': 0.3598, 'R32': 0.3631, 'F': 0.3646, 'SF': 0.3878}",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "age_prime_band_advantage",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.00184,
     "p": 0.641846528194783,
     "corpus": "atp_wta_matches_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=atp_wta_matches_2015_2025; n=69693; win-rate age 24-29 0.5002 (n=25098) vs other ages 0.5021 (n=44595)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ball_cycle_ace_rate",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0041,
     "p": 2.73640258576694e-05,
     "corpus": "slam_points",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points; n=256477; server_ace fresh(games1-2 post-change) 0.0668 (n=142715) vs worn(pre-change) 0.0627 (n=113762), Welch t=4.194",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:00:57Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ball_cycle_ace_rate__split_A",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0032,
     "p": 0.020775442464607,
     "corpus": "slam_points__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points__split_half; n=128238; server_ace fresh(games1-2 post-change) 0.0672 (n=71344) vs worn(pre-change) 0.0640 (n=56894), Welch t=2.312",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:00:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ball_cycle_ace_rate__split_B",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.005,
     "p": 0.00028425798394563694,
     "corpus": "slam_points__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points__split_half; n=128239; server_ace fresh(games1-2 post-change) 0.0663 (n=71371) vs worn(pre-change) 0.0614 (n=56868), Welch t=3.629",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:00:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "bp_save_skill_persistence_partial",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.09,
     "p": 0.25072834192402293,
     "corpus": "match_stats_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=match_stats_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=338; raw split-half pearson r=0.4422 (p=1.31e-17) but OLS bpB ~ bpA + svA (serve-win-rate-controlled) gives bpA partial coef=-0.0900 (p=0.251), n=338 players -- tests whether persistence survives once serve strength is netted out",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "deciding_set_hold_rate_shift",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.00803,
     "p": 8.263332355276085e-07,
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points_2011_2015; n=361890; server win-rate final-set 0.5957 (n=177576) vs set-1 0.6037 (n=184314)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "load_14d_ace_rate_tercile",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0054,
     "p": 5.3505333299634924e-18,
     "corpus": "matches_asof_setdetail_schedule_density_atp_wta",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_asof_setdetail_schedule_density_atp_wta; n=29256; combined_ace_rate top matches_last_14d tercile 0.0826 (n=8948) vs bottom tercile 0.0773 (n=13400)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:02:39Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "load_14d_first_serve_in_tercile",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0097,
     "p": 1.1050773414055017e-34,
     "corpus": "matches_asof_setdetail_schedule_density_atp_wta",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_asof_setdetail_schedule_density_atp_wta; n=29256; combined_1st_in_pct top matches_last_14d tercile 0.6239 (n=8948) vs bottom tercile 0.6142 (n=13400)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:02:39Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "post_break_hold_rate",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0051,
     "p": 0.07504751226106149,
     "corpus": "slam_points",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points; n=21208; post-break next-service-game hold 0.7537 vs own baseline 0.7485 (n=21208 breaks), paired t=1.780",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:00:57Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "post_break_hold_rate__split_A",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0067,
     "p": 0.10125730248104436,
     "corpus": "slam_points__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points__split_half; n=10522; post-break next-service-game hold 0.7561 vs own baseline 0.7494 (n=10522 breaks), paired t=1.639",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:00:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "post_break_hold_rate__split_B",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0036,
     "p": 0.37630716092548433,
     "corpus": "slam_points__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points__split_half; n=10686; post-break next-service-game hold 0.7513 vs own baseline 0.7476 (n=10686 breaks), paired t=0.885",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T11:00:58Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "prior_match_duration_fatigue",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.0076,
     "p": 0.13734197198583914,
     "corpus": "matches_atp_wta_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_atp_wta_2015_2025; n=71398; win-rate after a >=150min prior match (0.4979, n=11222) vs <150min (0.5055, n=60176)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rally_length_clay_vs_grass",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": -0.025,
     "p": 0.426392793060723,
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points_2011_2015; n=55707; mean rally shots Clay 3.724 (n=34339) vs Grass 3.749 (n=21368)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "ranking_gap_nonlinearity",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.002179,
     "p": 0.656748049791078,
     "corpus": "atp_wta_matches_2015_2025",
     "evidence": "corpus=atp_wta_matches_2015_2025; n=40802; RSS improvement (linear->quadratic) across 12 rank-gap bins, rss1=0.09504 rss2=0.09286",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "return_depth_aggressiveness_persistence",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.1348,
     "p": 0.24900925942373373,
     "corpus": "match_charting_project_return_depth",
     "evidence": "corpus=match_charting_project_return_depth; n=75; split-half pearson r, per-player deep-return rate (deep+very_deep)/returnable, n=75 players (>=5 matches/half)",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T15:43:18Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "surface_speed_drift_by_round",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0041,
     "p": 1.649376423316172e-07,
     "corpus": "matches_match_stats",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_match_stats; n=674; late-round mean ace rate minus early-round mean ace rate, paired by tourney_id (n=674 qualifying tournaments), one-sample t=5.291",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:14:36Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "surface_speed_drift_by_round__split_A",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0043,
     "p": 0.00010975200411253176,
     "corpus": "matches_match_stats__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_match_stats__split_half; n=351; late-round mean ace rate minus early-round mean ace rate, paired by tourney_id (n=351 qualifying tournaments), one-sample t=3.913",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:14:36Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "surface_speed_drift_by_round__split_B",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.004,
     "p": 0.00043134369957173295,
     "corpus": "matches_match_stats__split_half",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_match_stats__split_half; n=323; late-round mean ace rate minus early-round mean ace rate, paired by tourney_id (n=323 qualifying tournaments), one-sample t=3.557",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T12:14:36Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "tiebreak_serve_order_win_rate",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0035,
     "p": 0.8015703594922255,
     "corpus": "slam_points",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points; n=1281; first-server won 0.5035 (n=1281) of resolvable tiebreaks, one-sample t-test vs 0.5 (t=0.251, p=0.802); literature reference ~0.497",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:39:55Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "tiebreak_skill_persistence_partial",
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "bucket": "null",
     "effect": 0.0745,
     "p": 0.2678541355677811,
     "corpus": "matches_asof_setdetail_schedule_density_atp_wta",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_asof_setdetail_schedule_density_atp_wta; n=206; raw split-half pearson r=0.0783 (p=0.263) but OLS tbB ~ tbA + svA (serve-win-rate-controlled) gives tbA partial coef=0.0745 (p=0.268), n=206 players -- realized tiebreaks parsed from matches.parquet score string, not the asof rolling feature",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:02:39Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "break_point_conversion_by_set_number",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": -0.017,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "evidence": "corpus=slam_points_2011_2015; n=34145; break-point conversion rate, set>=3 (0.4113, n=16102) vs set==1 (0.4283, n=18043)",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "rally_length_distribution_by_round",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; slam_points.parquet has no `round` column (columns: ['match_id', 'tourney', 'year', 'date', 'date_source', 'set_no', 'game_no', 'point_number', 'point_server', 'point_winner', 'p1_games_won', 'p2_games_won', 'p1_score', 'p2_score', 'rally', 'p1_ace', 'p2_ace', 'p1_double_fault', 'p2_double_fault', 'speed_kmh', 'surface']), only set_no/game_no; match_id format ('YYYY-tourney-NNNN') does not encode round, and there is no local join key shared with matches.parquet's `round` column for these specific charted matches -- confirmed by column check this session.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "second_serve_discount_by_surface",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; slam_points.parquet has no serve-number column (only p1_ace/p1_double_fault flags). The sibling charting_points.parquet DOES carry `is_second_serve` (columns: ['match_id', 'date', 'date_source', 'tour', 'server', 'is_second_serve', 'point_winner', 'rally_length', 'set1', 'set2', 'gm1', 'gm2', 'score_state']) but covers ALL charted tour-level matches (not just the 4 majors) with no tourney/surface column and a free-text match_id (e.g. '...-Davis_Cup_Finals-...') that does not map through SURFACE_OF_TOURNEY -- deriving surface would need parsing thousands of distinct tournament-name strings, a bigger build than this mechanism check.",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "tiebreak_skill_persistence_split_half",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "premise_check_only",
     "evidence": "corpus=premise_check_only; n=0; slam_points.parquet has no player-name/id column at all (columns: ['match_id', 'tourney', 'year', 'date', 'date_source', 'set_no', 'game_no', 'point_number', 'point_server', 'point_winner', 'p1_games_won', 'p2_games_won', 'p1_score', 'p2_score', 'rally', 'p1_ace', 'p2_ace', 'p1_double_fault', 'p2_double_fault', 'speed_kmh', 'surface']) -- only server-slot (1/2) identity WITHIN a match. A per-PLAYER split-half correlation across matches needs cross-match player identity, which does not exist locally on this point-level corpus (consistent with the documented no-cross-corpus-identity-join ponytail note in _data.py, but stronger: it's missing even WITHIN this one corpus).",
     "as_of": null,
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "within_tournament_rest_gap_ace_rate",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "matches_match_stats_atp_wta",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_match_stats_atp_wta; n=36996; fewer than 200 rows in short (<=1d, n=36996) or long (>=2d, n=0) within-tourney rest-gap bucket",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:39:55Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "within_tournament_rest_gap_ace_rate",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "matches_match_stats_atp_wta",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_match_stats_atp_wta; n=36996; premise failure, not underpowered: matches.parquet's date column is the TOURNAMENT START date (verified this session: 2321/2322 tourney_ids have exactly 1 distinct date across ALL rounds), not a per-match date -- so a consecutive-date diff within tourney_id is always 0 (36996/36996 rows), and the row's literal test spec (diff of consecutive match dates) cannot be derived from this corpus; `round` (R32/QF/SF/F etc) exists but is a different, coarser ordinal, not the day-gap the row's causal story specifies -- not substituted here",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:41:14Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "within_tournament_rest_gap_first_serve",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "matches_match_stats_atp_wta",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_match_stats_atp_wta; n=36996; fewer than 200 rows in short (<=1d, n=36996) or long (>=2d, n=0) within-tourney rest-gap bucket",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:39:55Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    },
    {
     "mechanism": "within_tournament_rest_gap_first_serve",
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "bucket": "not_testable",
     "effect": null,
     "p": null,
     "corpus": "matches_match_stats_atp_wta",
     "evidence": "corpus=matches_match_stats_atp_wta; n=36996; premise failure, not underpowered: matches.parquet's date column is the TOURNAMENT START date (verified this session: 2321/2322 tourney_ids have exactly 1 distinct date across ALL rounds), not a per-match date -- so a consecutive-date diff within tourney_id is always 0 (36996/36996 rows), and the row's literal test spec (diff of consecutive match dates) cannot be derived from this corpus; `round` (R32/QF/SF/F etc) exists but is a different, coarser ordinal, not the day-gap the row's causal story specifies -- not substituted here",
     "as_of": "2026-07-10T09:41:14Z",
     "edge_claimed": false
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "edge_claimed": false
}