{
 "source": "domains/*/knowledge/validation_ledger.jsonl (4 sports)",
 "note": "Survival rate = share of TESTABLE hypotheses whose latest recorded verdict is CONFIRMED_LOCAL / CONFIRMED_LOCAL_incl_2026_OOS / REPLICATED. A NULL/REJECT is honest market-efficiency evidence, not a failure. No money/advantage/return claim.",
 "verdict_taxonomy": {
  "confirmed": [
   "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
   "CONFIRMED_LOCAL_incl_2026_OOS",
   "REPLICATED"
  ],
  "not_testable": [
   "NOT_REPLICABLE_NO_CORPUS",
   "NOT_TESTABLE"
  ],
  "tested_not_confirmed": "everything else (NULL, NULL_LOCAL, REJECT, PARTIAL, PROVISIONAL, FAILED_REPLICATION, ARTIFACT_CONFIRMED)"
 },
 "category_keyword_map": {
  "rest_fatigue": [
   "rest",
   "fatigue",
   "b2b",
   "load",
   "durability",
   "recovery",
   "tired"
  ],
  "travel": [
   "travel",
   "timezone",
   "altitude"
  ],
  "streak_momentum": [
   "streak",
   "momentum",
   "continuity",
   "hot_",
   "cold_"
  ],
  "matchup": [
   "matchup",
   "platoon",
   "h2h",
   "opponent",
   "specialization",
   "surface",
   "interaction"
  ],
  "weather_park": [
   "weather",
   "park",
   "climate",
   "rain"
  ],
  "official_referee": [
   "referee",
   "umpire",
   "call",
   "zone",
   "strike"
  ],
  "situational": "catch-all (no keyword match)"
 },
 "overall": {
  "n": 287,
  "n_testable": 256,
  "n_confirmed": 129,
  "n_not_testable": 31,
  "not_testable_share": 0.108,
  "survival_rate": 0.5039
 },
 "by_sport": {
  "basketball_nba": {
   "n": 82,
   "n_testable": 75,
   "n_confirmed": 42,
   "n_not_testable": 7,
   "not_testable_share": 0.0854,
   "survival_rate": 0.56
  },
  "mlb": {
   "n": 86,
   "n_testable": 78,
   "n_confirmed": 31,
   "n_not_testable": 8,
   "not_testable_share": 0.093,
   "survival_rate": 0.3974
  },
  "nba": {
   "n": 3,
   "n_testable": 3,
   "n_confirmed": 3,
   "n_not_testable": 0,
   "not_testable_share": 0.0,
   "survival_rate": 1.0
  },
  "soccer": {
   "n": 64,
   "n_testable": 56,
   "n_confirmed": 29,
   "n_not_testable": 8,
   "not_testable_share": 0.125,
   "survival_rate": 0.5179
  },
  "tennis": {
   "n": 52,
   "n_testable": 44,
   "n_confirmed": 24,
   "n_not_testable": 8,
   "not_testable_share": 0.1538,
   "survival_rate": 0.5455
  }
 },
 "by_category": {
  "situational": {
   "n": 174,
   "n_testable": 155,
   "n_confirmed": 81,
   "n_not_testable": 19,
   "not_testable_share": 0.1092,
   "survival_rate": 0.5226
  },
  "rest_fatigue": {
   "n": 42,
   "n_testable": 36,
   "n_confirmed": 11,
   "n_not_testable": 6,
   "not_testable_share": 0.1429,
   "survival_rate": 0.3056
  },
  "matchup": {
   "n": 27,
   "n_testable": 25,
   "n_confirmed": 13,
   "n_not_testable": 2,
   "not_testable_share": 0.0741,
   "survival_rate": 0.52
  },
  "streak_momentum": {
   "n": 23,
   "n_testable": 23,
   "n_confirmed": 11,
   "n_not_testable": 0,
   "not_testable_share": 0.0,
   "survival_rate": 0.4783
  },
  "official_referee": {
   "n": 14,
   "n_testable": 12,
   "n_confirmed": 9,
   "n_not_testable": 2,
   "not_testable_share": 0.1429,
   "survival_rate": 0.75
  },
  "travel": {
   "n": 4,
   "n_testable": 4,
   "n_confirmed": 4,
   "n_not_testable": 0,
   "not_testable_share": 0.0,
   "survival_rate": 1.0
  },
  "weather_park": {
   "n": 3,
   "n_testable": 1,
   "n_confirmed": 0,
   "n_not_testable": 2,
   "not_testable_share": 0.6667,
   "survival_rate": 0.0
  }
 },
 "novelty": {
  "verdict": "N/A -- this is an internal measurement-hygiene artifact (a scoreboard over our own hypothesis ledger), not a market-facing analytic method. No prior-art search performed; the closest prior-art notes on file are for the closing reference forecast information-arrival curve (INCREMENTAL vs arXiv 2606.07811) and the over/underreaction spectrum (INCREMENTAL vs Moskowitz 2021 / Choi & Hui 2014) -- neither of those covers a hypothesis-survival scoreboard, so this artifact carries no borrowed novelty claim of its own."
 },
 "edge_claimed": false
}