{
  "edge_claimed": false,
  "method": "10-bin Murphy decomposition (Brier = reliability - resolution + uncertainty)",
  "sports": {
    "mlb": {
      "n_rows": 27351,
      "model_prob": {
        "n": 27351,
        "brier": 0.166759,
        "reliability": 0.005619,
        "resolution": 0.087187,
        "uncertainty": 0.249895,
        "reconstructed_brier": 0.168327,
        "bins": [
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.0,
            "bin_hi": 0.1,
            "n": 2072,
            "mean_p": 0.0513,
            "mean_y": 0.0632
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.1,
            "bin_hi": 0.2,
            "n": 1900,
            "mean_p": 0.1557,
            "mean_y": 0.0458
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.2,
            "bin_hi": 0.3,
            "n": 1774,
            "mean_p": 0.2449,
            "mean_y": 0.1065
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.3,
            "bin_hi": 0.4,
            "n": 2217,
            "mean_p": 0.3583,
            "mean_y": 0.235
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.4,
            "bin_hi": 0.5,
            "n": 3859,
            "mean_p": 0.4581,
            "mean_y": 0.3713
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.5,
            "bin_hi": 0.6,
            "n": 5636,
            "mean_p": 0.5433,
            "mean_y": 0.552
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.6,
            "bin_hi": 0.7,
            "n": 4026,
            "mean_p": 0.6469,
            "mean_y": 0.6426
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.7,
            "bin_hi": 0.8,
            "n": 2024,
            "mean_p": 0.7464,
            "mean_y": 0.8216
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.8,
            "bin_hi": 0.9,
            "n": 2406,
            "mean_p": 0.8487,
            "mean_y": 0.9414
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.9,
            "bin_hi": 1.0,
            "n": 1437,
            "mean_p": 0.9516,
            "mean_y": 0.9798
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_prob": {
        "n": 27351,
        "brier": 0.151008,
        "reliability": 0.003425,
        "resolution": 0.102062,
        "uncertainty": 0.249895,
        "reconstructed_brier": 0.151258,
        "bins": [
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.0,
            "bin_hi": 0.1,
            "n": 3233,
            "mean_p": 0.0492,
            "mean_y": 0.0213
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.1,
            "bin_hi": 0.2,
            "n": 2344,
            "mean_p": 0.1481,
            "mean_y": 0.1212
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.2,
            "bin_hi": 0.3,
            "n": 1876,
            "mean_p": 0.2479,
            "mean_y": 0.1594
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.3,
            "bin_hi": 0.4,
            "n": 1526,
            "mean_p": 0.3508,
            "mean_y": 0.2366
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.4,
            "bin_hi": 0.5,
            "n": 2703,
            "mean_p": 0.453,
            "mean_y": 0.3455
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.5,
            "bin_hi": 0.6,
            "n": 4129,
            "mean_p": 0.55,
            "mean_y": 0.4933
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.6,
            "bin_hi": 0.7,
            "n": 2957,
            "mean_p": 0.649,
            "mean_y": 0.6821
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.7,
            "bin_hi": 0.8,
            "n": 2579,
            "mean_p": 0.7462,
            "mean_y": 0.7038
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.8,
            "bin_hi": 0.9,
            "n": 2461,
            "mean_p": 0.8524,
            "mean_y": 0.8639
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.9,
            "bin_hi": 1.0,
            "n": 3543,
            "mean_p": 0.9496,
            "mean_y": 0.9746
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "soccer_intl": {
      "n_rows": 4265,
      "model_prob": {
        "n": 4265,
        "brier": 0.332522,
        "reliability": 0.191982,
        "resolution": 0.038714,
        "uncertainty": 0.213485,
        "reconstructed_brier": 0.366753,
        "bins": [
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.0,
            "bin_hi": 0.1,
            "n": 1284,
            "mean_p": 0.0454,
            "mean_y": 0.6671
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.1,
            "bin_hi": 0.2,
            "n": 792,
            "mean_p": 0.1438,
            "mean_y": 0.5189
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.2,
            "bin_hi": 0.3,
            "n": 669,
            "mean_p": 0.2465,
            "mean_y": 0.4395
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.3,
            "bin_hi": 0.4,
            "n": 449,
            "mean_p": 0.3508,
            "mean_y": 0.7171
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.4,
            "bin_hi": 0.5,
            "n": 180,
            "mean_p": 0.4476,
            "mean_y": 1.0
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.5,
            "bin_hi": 0.6,
            "n": 202,
            "mean_p": 0.5512,
            "mean_y": 1.0
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.6,
            "bin_hi": 0.7,
            "n": 136,
            "mean_p": 0.6353,
            "mean_y": 0.9485
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.7,
            "bin_hi": 0.8,
            "n": 198,
            "mean_p": 0.7555,
            "mean_y": 1.0
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.8,
            "bin_hi": 0.9,
            "n": 194,
            "mean_p": 0.8409,
            "mean_y": 1.0
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.9,
            "bin_hi": 1.0,
            "n": 161,
            "mean_p": 0.9619,
            "mean_y": 1.0
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_prob": {
        "n": 4265,
        "brier": 0.195157,
        "reliability": 0.088088,
        "resolution": 0.071263,
        "uncertainty": 0.213485,
        "reconstructed_brier": 0.23031,
        "bins": [
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.0,
            "bin_hi": 0.1,
            "n": 603,
            "mean_p": 0.0592,
            "mean_y": 0.3093
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.1,
            "bin_hi": 0.2,
            "n": 486,
            "mean_p": 0.1639,
            "mean_y": 0.3477
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.2,
            "bin_hi": 0.3,
            "n": 969,
            "mean_p": 0.2405,
            "mean_y": 0.5537
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.3,
            "bin_hi": 0.4,
            "n": 224,
            "mean_p": 0.3474,
            "mean_y": 0.7567
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.4,
            "bin_hi": 0.5,
            "n": 405,
            "mean_p": 0.4512,
            "mean_y": 0.8889
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.5,
            "bin_hi": 0.6,
            "n": 467,
            "mean_p": 0.5559,
            "mean_y": 0.8951
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.6,
            "bin_hi": 0.7,
            "n": 223,
            "mean_p": 0.6506,
            "mean_y": 1.0
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.7,
            "bin_hi": 0.8,
            "n": 271,
            "mean_p": 0.7189,
            "mean_y": 0.9889
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.8,
            "bin_hi": 0.9,
            "n": 485,
            "mean_p": 0.8588,
            "mean_y": 1.0
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.9,
            "bin_hi": 1.0,
            "n": 132,
            "mean_p": 0.912,
            "mean_y": 1.0
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "verdict": "mlb: model Brier 0.1668 is worse than market 0.1510 (gap=+0.0158); driven mainly by resolution (information, not fixable by recalibration) (reliability_gap=+0.0022, resolution_gap=-0.0149). soccer_intl: model Brier 0.3325 is worse than market 0.1952 (gap=+0.1374); driven mainly by reliability (calibration, fixable) (reliability_gap=+0.1039, resolution_gap=-0.0325).",
  "plot_written": true,
  "as_of": "2026-09-16",
  "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}