{
 "label": "DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY",
 "source": "docs/JOB_EVIDENCE_PACKET.md (truth source); input data/domains/basketball_nba/player_boxscores.parquet",
 "as_of": "2026-04-12",
 "methodology": {
  "measure": "coefficient of variation (sample std / mean, ddof=1) of per-36 pts/reb/ast across a player's qualifying games; lower = steadier",
  "stats": [
   "pts",
   "reb",
   "ast"
  ],
  "per36": "stat * 36 / minutes, per game",
  "shrinkage": "cv_shrunk = w*cv_raw + (1-w)*league_mean_cv, w = games/(games+shrink_k)",
  "shrink_k_games": 20.0,
  "shrink_k_tuned_to_output": false,
  "min_game_minutes_floor": 10.0,
  "min_qualifying_games_floor": 15,
  "league_mean_cv_raw": {
   "pts": 0.5242,
   "reb": 0.5561,
   "ast": 0.7825
  },
  "composite": "unweighted mean of the three shrunk per-stat CVs (declared choice)",
  "caveat": "CV inflates mechanically for low-mean stats; reb/ast CVs are not on the same scale as pts CV across archetypes. Consistency is not skill/value.",
  "seasons_pooled": [
   "2023-24",
   "2024-25",
   "2025-26"
  ]
 },
 "not_this": [
  "NOT a skill/value metric -- a low-volume role player can be very consistent at low output",
  "NOT opponent/rest/role/home-away adjusted -- raw game-to-game dispersion only",
  "NOT predictive -- describes past games, does not forecast future variance"
 ],
 "input_coverage": {
  "rows": 77744,
  "unique_players": 807,
  "seasons": [
   "2023-24",
   "2024-25",
   "2025-26"
  ],
  "players_meeting_floor": 579
 },
 "composite_cv_distribution": {
  "n": 579,
  "min": 0.3448,
  "p25": 0.5457,
  "median": 0.6235,
  "p75": 0.6778,
  "max": 0.8849,
  "mean": 0.6128
 },
 "most_consistent_top15": [
  {
   "player_name": "Luka Doncic",
   "player_id": 1629029,
   "games": 184,
   "shrink_weight": 0.902,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3448,
   "pts_per36_mean": 31.87,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.2799,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.3569,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.3975
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Nikola Jokic",
   "player_id": 203999,
   "games": 210,
   "shrink_weight": 0.913,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3456,
   "pts_per36_mean": 28.35,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.3103,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.3194,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4072
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Domantas Sabonis",
   "player_id": 1627734,
   "games": 170,
   "shrink_weight": 0.895,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3712,
   "pts_per36_mean": 19.68,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.3297,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.3129,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.471
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Giannis Antetokounmpo",
   "player_id": 203507,
   "games": 173,
   "shrink_weight": 0.896,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3744,
   "pts_per36_mean": 32.18,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.2666,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.3333,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.5232
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander",
   "player_id": 1628983,
   "games": 218,
   "shrink_weight": 0.916,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3783,
   "pts_per36_mean": 33.44,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.2374,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.4722,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4253
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Cade Cunningham",
   "player_id": 1630595,
   "games": 192,
   "shrink_weight": 0.906,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3835,
   "pts_per36_mean": 25.5,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.3074,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.4675,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.3756
  },
  {
   "player_name": "LeBron James",
   "player_id": 2544,
   "games": 201,
   "shrink_weight": 0.91,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3857,
   "pts_per36_mean": 24.9,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.2994,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.452,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4055
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Jayson Tatum",
   "player_id": 1628369,
   "games": 162,
   "shrink_weight": 0.89,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3905,
   "pts_per36_mean": 26.66,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.293,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.387,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4914
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Paolo Banchero",
   "player_id": 1631094,
   "games": 190,
   "shrink_weight": 0.905,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3913,
   "pts_per36_mean": 24.1,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.3316,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.3909,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4515
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Alperen Sengun",
   "player_id": 1630578,
   "games": 208,
   "shrink_weight": 0.912,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.3939,
   "pts_per36_mean": 22.28,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.3193,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.3856,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4768
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Kawhi Leonard",
   "player_id": 202695,
   "games": 164,
   "shrink_weight": 0.891,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.4002,
   "pts_per36_mean": 27.28,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.3237,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.3881,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4889
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Scottie Barnes",
   "player_id": 1630567,
   "games": 196,
   "shrink_weight": 0.907,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.4016,
   "pts_per36_mean": 20.32,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.3245,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.4367,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4436
  },
  {
   "player_name": "LaMelo Ball",
   "player_id": 1630163,
   "games": 134,
   "shrink_weight": 0.87,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.4053,
   "pts_per36_mean": 26.51,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.3212,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.4796,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4152
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Tyler Herro",
   "player_id": 1629639,
   "games": 145,
   "shrink_weight": 0.879,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.4099,
   "pts_per36_mean": 23.75,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.2973,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.4406,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.4917
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Kevin Durant",
   "player_id": 201142,
   "games": 215,
   "shrink_weight": 0.915,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.4111,
   "pts_per36_mean": 26.11,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.2719,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.4029,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.5586
  }
 ],
 "least_consistent_top15": [
  {
   "player_name": "P.J. Tucker",
   "player_id": 200782,
   "games": 26,
   "shrink_weight": 0.565,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8849,
   "pts_per36_mean": 3.82,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.8862,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.5287,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.2398
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Cam Reddish",
   "player_id": 1629629,
   "games": 71,
   "shrink_weight": 0.78,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8839,
   "pts_per36_mean": 7.98,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.7481,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.7678,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.1359
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Gary Harris",
   "player_id": 203914,
   "games": 125,
   "shrink_weight": 0.862,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8818,
   "pts_per36_mean": 8.33,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.8043,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.7901,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.0511
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Jaylen Clark",
   "player_id": 1641740,
   "games": 67,
   "shrink_weight": 0.77,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8446,
   "pts_per36_mean": 11.37,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.6923,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.661,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.1805
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Garrison Mathews",
   "player_id": 1629726,
   "games": 101,
   "shrink_weight": 0.835,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8376,
   "pts_per36_mean": 13.35,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.6062,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.8175,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.0891
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Adem Bona",
   "player_id": 1641737,
   "games": 98,
   "shrink_weight": 0.831,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8352,
   "pts_per36_mean": 10.62,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.5633,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.4845,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.4579
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Moussa Cisse",
   "player_id": 1630619,
   "games": 23,
   "shrink_weight": 0.535,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8338,
   "pts_per36_mean": 12.63,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.5736,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.4701,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.4576
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Khaman Maluach",
   "player_id": 1642863,
   "games": 19,
   "shrink_weight": 0.487,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8319,
   "pts_per36_mean": 12.32,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.5153,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.5755,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.4049
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Julian Phillips",
   "player_id": 1641763,
   "games": 90,
   "shrink_weight": 0.818,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8287,
   "pts_per36_mean": 11.89,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.5651,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.6248,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.2963
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Moses Brown",
   "player_id": 1629650,
   "games": 15,
   "shrink_weight": 0.429,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8254,
   "pts_per36_mean": 17.62,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.5615,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.5071,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.4075
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Gabe Vincent",
   "player_id": 1629216,
   "games": 127,
   "shrink_weight": 0.864,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8241,
   "pts_per36_mean": 9.62,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.6845,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.8659,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 0.922
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Rasheer Fleming",
   "player_id": 1642853,
   "games": 31,
   "shrink_weight": 0.608,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8203,
   "pts_per36_mean": 13.31,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.537,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.6556,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.2683
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Chris Boucher",
   "player_id": 1628449,
   "games": 98,
   "shrink_weight": 0.831,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.813,
   "pts_per36_mean": 17.41,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.5728,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.5492,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.3169
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Terrence Shannon Jr.",
   "player_id": 1630545,
   "games": 33,
   "shrink_weight": 0.623,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8083,
   "pts_per36_mean": 13.44,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.6395,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.7635,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.0218
  },
  {
   "player_name": "Dalton Knecht",
   "player_id": 1642261,
   "games": 92,
   "shrink_weight": 0.821,
   "composite_cv_shrunk": 0.8052,
   "pts_per36_mean": 15.17,
   "pts_cv_shrunk": 0.6184,
   "reb_cv_shrunk": 0.6557,
   "ast_cv_shrunk": 1.1415
  }
 ]
}