{
 "stat_name": "Load-Bearing Index",
 "abbrev": "LBI",
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "descriptive_only": true,
 "metric_definition": "Per team, the win-prob dependence on its single most-indispensable player, under two independent estimators, with a cross-method agreement flag.",
 "formula": "LBI_a = max_player (p_win_with - p_win_without) [Elo on/off]; LBI_b = max_player (win_rate_active - win_rate_missed) [raw]; agreement = same #1 player.",
 "source_artifacts": [
  "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/cf_star_removal.json",
  "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/ctx_lineup_proxy.json"
 ],
 "as_of": {
  "estimator_a": "2024-25 (Elo end-of-season) x 2024_25 on/off slice",
  "estimator_b": "2025-26 regular season (through 2026-04-12)"
 },
 "prior_art_verdict": "INCREMENTAL",
 "prior_art_citation": "On/Off Win Probability tables (inpredictable, stats.inpredictable.com/nba/onoff.php), 'record-without-star' splits, and player-impact-on-win-chances (arXiv 1604.03186) all exist. Single-method fragility is NOT new. The novel twist is a standardized league-wide fragility ranking CROSS-VALIDATED by two independent estimators with an agreement flag.",
 "declared_confounds": [
  "both estimators carry the ROSTER CONFOUND both source files label explicitly: why a player missed is entangled with injury clustering, rest, blowout pulls, and replacement lineup -- none controlled. NOT a causal player-impact estimate.",
  "the feeds cover DIFFERENT seasons (Elo on/off = 2024-25; raw with/without = 2025-26), so agreement is DIRECTIONAL corroboration, not a paired estimate.",
  "estimator (a) is win prob vs a league-average opponent on a neutral floor; estimator (b) is raw team win-rate active-vs-missed. The two axes are related but not the same scale."
 ],
 "agreement_summary": {
  "n_teams_both_estimators": 30,
  "n_agree": 1,
  "agree_rate": 0.0333
 },
 "results": [
  {
   "team": "DEN",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Nikola Joki\u0107",
    "delta_winprob": 0.5822,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 23.713
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Aaron Gordon",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.1818,
    "n_active": 36,
    "n_missed": 44
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "OKC",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander",
    "delta_winprob": 0.5171,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 15.763
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Ajay Mitchell",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2685,
    "n_active": 57,
    "n_missed": 23
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "LAL",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Dorian Finney-Smith",
    "delta_winprob": 0.4656,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 14.944
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Rui Hachimura",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2626,
    "n_active": 68,
    "n_missed": 14
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "MIL",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Giannis Antetokounmpo",
    "delta_winprob": 0.4441,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 14.231
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Kyle Kuzma",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3659,
    "n_active": 69,
    "n_missed": 12
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "LAC",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Ivica Zubac",
    "delta_winprob": 0.4051,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 11.965
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Brook Lopez",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.4038,
    "n_active": 75,
    "n_missed": 7
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "IND",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Pascal Siakam",
    "delta_winprob": 0.3872,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 11.457
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Pascal Siakam",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2075,
    "n_active": 62,
    "n_missed": 15
   },
   "agreement_same_player": true
  },
  {
   "team": "ORL",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Franz Wagner",
    "delta_winprob": 0.3816,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 13.851
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Moritz Wagner",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.1833,
    "n_active": 36,
    "n_missed": 5
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "CHI",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Lonzo Ball",
    "delta_winprob": 0.3758,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 13.374
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Jalen Smith",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3327,
    "n_active": 53,
    "n_missed": 19
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "ATL",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Mouhamed Gueye",
    "delta_winprob": 0.3668,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 13.562
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Dyson Daniels",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.1789,
    "n_active": 76,
    "n_missed": 5
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "CLE",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Isaac Okoro",
    "delta_winprob": 0.303,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.728
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Sam Merrill",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2115,
    "n_active": 52,
    "n_missed": 28
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "DAL",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Dereck Lively II",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2878,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 9.34
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Naji Marshall",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3378,
    "n_active": 74,
    "n_missed": 5
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "NOP",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Zion Williamson",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2823,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 15.772
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Karlo Matkovi\u0107",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3038,
    "n_active": 62,
    "n_missed": 12
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "NYK",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Karl-Anthony Towns",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2821,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 7.982
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Jalen Brunson",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2471,
    "n_active": 74,
    "n_missed": 7
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "BOS",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Luke Kornet",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2785,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.218
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Neemias Queta",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.0842,
    "n_active": 76,
    "n_missed": 5
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "SAS",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Victor Wembanyama",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2781,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 11.135
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Carter Bryant",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2433,
    "n_active": 71,
    "n_missed": 11
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "MEM",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Ja Morant",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2731,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.072
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Santi Aldama",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2752,
    "n_active": 43,
    "n_missed": 6
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "BKN",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Day'Ron Sharpe",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2669,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 14.902
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Ochai Agbaji",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2,
    "n_active": 20,
    "n_missed": 6
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "PHX",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Monte Morris",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2593,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.334
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Ryan Dunn",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.1548,
    "n_active": 70,
    "n_missed": 12
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "MIA",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Davion Mitchell",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2517,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 8.354
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Kasparas Jaku\u010dionis",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3061,
    "n_active": 53,
    "n_missed": 9
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "GSW",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Gui Santos",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2378,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 6.653
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Moses Moody",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3,
    "n_active": 60,
    "n_missed": 10
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "POR",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Jabari Walker",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2364,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 7.676
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Rayan Rupert",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3988,
    "n_active": 48,
    "n_missed": 7
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "HOU",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Steven Adams",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2327,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 6.503
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "JD Davison",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2637,
    "n_active": 28,
    "n_missed": 52
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "SAC",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Domantas Sabonis",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2249,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 6.611
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Maxime Raynaud",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.1588,
    "n_active": 74,
    "n_missed": 8
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "UTA",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "John Collins",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2156,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 15.371
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Lauri Markkanen",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3423,
    "n_active": 42,
    "n_missed": 16
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "TOR",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Jakob Poeltl",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2093,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 7.751
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Immanuel Quickley",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.169,
    "n_active": 70,
    "n_missed": 12
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "MIN",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Naz Reid",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2092,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 5.85
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Jaden McDaniels",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.1027,
    "n_active": 73,
    "n_missed": 8
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "WAS",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Richaun Holmes",
    "delta_winprob": 0.2032,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 14.126
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Khris Middleton",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.2863,
    "n_active": 34,
    "n_missed": 15
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "CHA",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Moussa Diabat\u00e9",
    "delta_winprob": 0.1505,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 7.99
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Brandon Miller",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.4543,
    "n_active": 65,
    "n_missed": 17
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "DET",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Tobias Harris",
    "delta_winprob": 0.1447,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 4.139
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Duncan Robinson",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3532,
    "n_active": 77,
    "n_missed": 5
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  },
  {
   "team": "PHI",
   "estimator_a_elo_onoff": {
    "player_name": "Guerschon Yabusele",
    "delta_winprob": 0.1371,
    "on_off_net_rating_delta": 5.279
   },
   "estimator_b_raw_withwithout": {
    "player_name": "Jared McCain",
    "delta_win_rate": 0.3089,
    "n_active": 37,
    "n_missed": 7
   },
   "agreement_same_player": false
  }
 ],
 "headline": "Most one-star-fragile: DEN (Nikola Joki\u0107, delta_winprob 0.5822). Two estimators name the same #1 player for 1/30 teams (directional cross-check, different seasons).",
 "index_card": {
  "stat_name": "Load-Bearing Index",
  "abbrev": "LBI",
  "module": "novel_load_bearing_index",
  "formula": "LBI_a = max_player (p_win_with - p_win_without) [Elo on/off]; LBI_b = max_player (win_rate_active - win_rate_missed) [raw]; agreement = same #1 player.",
  "prior_art_verdict": "INCREMENTAL",
  "headline": "Most one-star-fragile: DEN (Nikola Joki\u0107, delta_winprob 0.5822). Two estimators name the same #1 player for 1/30 teams (directional cross-check, different seasons).",
  "edge_claimed": false,
  "source_artifacts": [
   "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/cf_star_removal.json",
   "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/ctx_lineup_proxy.json"
  ],
  "chart": "docs/img/novel_load_bearing_index.png",
  "n_results": 30
 },
 "plot_written": true
}