{
 "stat_name": "Market Foresight Premium",
 "abbrev": "MFP",
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "descriptive_only": true,
 "metric_definition": "The closing reference forecast's excess resolving power over a scoreboard-only model, per bit of uncertainty still left in the game, by checkpoint.",
 "formula": "MFP(t) = ((naive-market)/naive - (naive-model)/naive) / max(entropy_market_bits, 0.15)",
 "source_artifacts": [
  "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/info_arrival_curve.json",
  "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/market_convergence.json"
 ],
 "entropy_floor_bits": 0.15,
 "prior_art_verdict": "INCREMENTAL",
 "prior_art_citation": "The absorption instrument (paired model/market/naive Brier by game-time) is arXiv 2606.07811 ('When Do Markets Fully Process Public Information', Kalshi/NBA), which info_arrival_curve.json's own novelty block flags INCREMENTAL. Entropy decay is textbook (Shannon). Do NOT claim first-ever on the components -- only the skill-gap-PER-BIT normalization (the unpublished cross of the two separate literatures) is claimed.",
 "declared_confounds": [
  "'model' is one specific state-only forecaster, so MFP conflates genuine news the closing reference forecast prices (lineups, momentum) with plain model misspecification.",
  "Entropy -> 0 late in a game would explode the ratio; the 0.15-bit floor caps that.",
  "mlb (inning) and soccer_intl (5-min bucket) only; different clock units, not equated."
 ],
 "results": {
  "mlb": {
   "checkpoints": [
    {
     "checkpoint": "1",
     "n": 3589,
     "market_skill": 0.0333,
     "model_skill": -0.0154,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.9553,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.051
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "2",
     "n": 2803,
     "market_skill": 0.0805,
     "model_skill": -0.0805,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.8971,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.1794
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "3",
     "n": 3097,
     "market_skill": 0.074,
     "model_skill": -0.0406,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.7993,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.1434
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "4",
     "n": 3034,
     "market_skill": 0.0386,
     "model_skill": -0.0951,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.7386,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.181
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "5",
     "n": 3139,
     "market_skill": 0.1172,
     "model_skill": 0.035,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.6583,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.1249
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "6",
     "n": 3579,
     "market_skill": 0.1506,
     "model_skill": 0.0648,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.6106,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.1404
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "7",
     "n": 3447,
     "market_skill": 0.2463,
     "model_skill": 0.1612,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.5414,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.1571
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "8",
     "n": 2833,
     "market_skill": 0.3969,
     "model_skill": 0.3574,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.4757,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.0831
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "9",
     "n": 1110,
     "market_skill": 0.5547,
     "model_skill": 0.5474,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.4589,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.0159
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "10",
     "n": 46,
     "market_skill": 0.2858,
     "model_skill": -0.0631,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.8488,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.411
    }
   ],
   "n_checkpoints": 10,
   "mfp_first": 0.051,
   "mfp_last": 0.411,
   "mfp_mean": 0.1487,
   "mfp_delta_last_minus_first": 0.36
  },
  "soccer_intl": {
   "checkpoints": [
    {
     "checkpoint": "0",
     "n": 150,
     "market_skill": 0.4883,
     "model_skill": -0.0643,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.8152,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.6779
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "5",
     "n": 213,
     "market_skill": 0.4673,
     "model_skill": -0.1496,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.8354,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.7385
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "10",
     "n": 203,
     "market_skill": 0.4788,
     "model_skill": -0.1725,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.8352,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.7797
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "15",
     "n": 208,
     "market_skill": 0.4403,
     "model_skill": -0.2155,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.8041,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.8156
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "20",
     "n": 192,
     "market_skill": 0.3952,
     "model_skill": -0.1972,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.8275,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.7158
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "25",
     "n": 195,
     "market_skill": 0.3094,
     "model_skill": -0.2715,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.8171,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.7108
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "30",
     "n": 192,
     "market_skill": 0.2872,
     "model_skill": -0.344,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.7881,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.8009
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "35",
     "n": 173,
     "market_skill": 0.262,
     "model_skill": -0.2964,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.7629,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.732
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "40",
     "n": 189,
     "market_skill": 0.2329,
     "model_skill": -0.4017,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.7437,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.8534
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "45",
     "n": 402,
     "market_skill": 0.308,
     "model_skill": -0.2975,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.743,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.8149
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "50",
     "n": 189,
     "market_skill": -0.0211,
     "model_skill": -0.6176,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.6488,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.9193
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "55",
     "n": 192,
     "market_skill": -0.0626,
     "model_skill": -0.5354,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.6193,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.7635
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "60",
     "n": 189,
     "market_skill": -0.0523,
     "model_skill": -0.549,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.624,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.796
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "65",
     "n": 154,
     "market_skill": -0.1651,
     "model_skill": -0.7257,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.6625,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.8462
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "70",
     "n": 152,
     "market_skill": -0.358,
     "model_skill": -0.9763,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.6696,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 0.9234
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "75",
     "n": 132,
     "market_skill": -0.1693,
     "model_skill": -0.9452,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.7297,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 1.0634
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "80",
     "n": 127,
     "market_skill": -0.2629,
     "model_skill": -1.1626,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.6865,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 1.3107
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "85",
     "n": 98,
     "market_skill": -0.5103,
     "model_skill": -1.5469,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.5823,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 1.7802
    },
    {
     "checkpoint": "90",
     "n": 33,
     "market_skill": -0.2424,
     "model_skill": -0.8324,
     "entropy_market_bits": 0.397,
     "entropy_floored": false,
     "mfp": 1.4861
    }
   ],
   "n_checkpoints": 19,
   "mfp_first": 0.6779,
   "mfp_last": 1.4861,
   "mfp_mean": 0.9225,
   "mfp_delta_last_minus_first": 0.8082
  }
 },
 "headline": "mlb: MFP rises from 0.05 to 0.41 over the game (mean 0.15); soccer_intl: MFP rises from 0.68 to 1.49 over the game (mean 0.92)",
 "index_card": {
  "stat_name": "Market Foresight Premium",
  "abbrev": "MFP",
  "module": "novel_market_foresight_premium",
  "formula": "MFP(t) = ((naive-market)/naive - (naive-model)/naive) / max(entropy_market_bits, 0.15)",
  "prior_art_verdict": "INCREMENTAL",
  "headline": "mlb: MFP rises from 0.05 to 0.41 over the game (mean 0.15); soccer_intl: MFP rises from 0.68 to 1.49 over the game (mean 0.92)",
  "edge_claimed": false,
  "source_artifacts": [
   "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/info_arrival_curve.json",
   "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/market_convergence.json"
  ],
  "chart": "docs/img/novel_market_foresight_premium.png",
  "n_results": 2
 },
 "plot_written": true,
 "as_of": "2026-09-17",
 "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}