{
  "edge_claimed": false,
  "story": "Ranks (sport x game-state time bucket x model_prob band) segments by total absolute residual mass -- where fixing the model removes the most cumulative error, i.e. the improvement backlog.",
  "sports": {
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      "n_files": 178,
      "n_records": 27351,
      "n_skipped": 668,
      "segments": [
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "early(inn1-3)",
          "prob_bucket": ".4-.6",
          "n": 5754,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.4888,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 2812.37
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "early(inn1-3)",
          "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
          "n": 2702,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.446,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 1204.96
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
          "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
          "n": 2449,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3941,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 965.13
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
          "prob_bucket": ".8-1",
          "n": 1462,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.1717,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 251.05
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
          "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
          "n": 752,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3666,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 275.65
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
          "prob_bucket": ".8-1",
          "n": 2369,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.1276,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 302.21
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
          "prob_bucket": ".4-.6",
          "n": 2468,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.4794,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 1183.15
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
          "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
          "n": 2285,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3647,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 833.4
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
          "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
          "n": 617,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3085,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 190.33
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
          "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
          "n": 2884,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.1325,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 382.13
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
          "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
          "n": 1088,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.1765,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 192.06
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "early(inn1-3)",
          "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
          "n": 1033,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.4153,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 428.99
        },
        {
          "sport": "mlb",
          "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
          "prob_bucket": ".4-.6",
          "n": 820,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.4987,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 408.96
        }
      ]
    },
    "soccer_intl": {
      "n_files": 27,
      "n_records": 4265,
      "n_skipped": 882,
      "segments": [
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "0-15",
          "prob_bucket": ".4-.6",
          "n": 158,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.4944,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 78.12
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "15-30",
          "prob_bucket": ".4-.6",
          "n": 120,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.5,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 60.0
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "15-30",
          "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
          "n": 227,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.4795,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 108.84
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "15-30",
          "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
          "n": 174,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.5295,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 92.14
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "30-45",
          "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
          "n": 232,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.6338,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 147.05
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "45-60",
          "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
          "n": 410,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.5693,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 233.42
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "60-75",
          "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
          "n": 342,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.5322,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 182.03
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "75-90+",
          "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
          "n": 367,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.523,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 191.95
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "0-15",
          "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
          "n": 109,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3978,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 43.36
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "0-15",
          "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
          "n": 264,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.4872,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 128.62
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "30-45",
          "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
          "n": 120,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3184,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 38.2
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "30-45",
          "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
          "n": 34,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3491,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 11.87
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "45-60",
          "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
          "n": 57,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.2574,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 14.67
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "60-75",
          "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
          "n": 20,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.2384,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 4.77
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "30-45",
          "prob_bucket": ".4-.6",
          "n": 104,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.4998,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 51.98
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "45-60",
          "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
          "n": 216,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3762,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 81.27
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "60-75",
          "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
          "n": 88,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.6104,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 53.71
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "75-90+",
          "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
          "n": 7,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.7892,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 5.52
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "45-60",
          "prob_bucket": ".8-1",
          "n": 100,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.0887,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 8.87
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "60-75",
          "prob_bucket": ".8-1",
          "n": 45,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.1123,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 5.05
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "0-15",
          "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
          "n": 35,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3274,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 11.46
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "15-30",
          "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
          "n": 43,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.3148,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 13.53
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "15-30",
          "prob_bucket": ".8-1",
          "n": 31,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.1817,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 5.63
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "30-45",
          "prob_bucket": ".8-1",
          "n": 64,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.102,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 6.53
        },
        {
          "sport": "soccer_intl",
          "time_bucket": "75-90+",
          "prob_bucket": ".8-1",
          "n": 16,
          "mean_abs_residual": 0.0789,
          "total_abs_residual_mass": 1.26
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "skipped": [
    {
      "sport": "mlb_clean",
      "reason": "byte-identical duplicate of mlb corpus -- excluded to avoid double counting"
    }
  ],
  "ranked_worst_segments": [
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob_bucket": ".4-.6",
      "n": 5754,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.4888,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 2812.37
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
      "n": 2702,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.446,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 1204.96
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob_bucket": ".4-.6",
      "n": 2468,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.4794,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 1183.15
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
      "n": 2449,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.3941,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 965.13
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
      "n": 2285,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.3647,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 833.4
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
      "n": 1033,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.4153,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 428.99
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob_bucket": ".4-.6",
      "n": 820,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.4987,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 408.96
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
      "n": 2884,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.1325,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 382.13
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob_bucket": ".8-1",
      "n": 2369,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.1276,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 302.21
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob_bucket": ".6-.8",
      "n": 752,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.3666,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 275.65
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob_bucket": ".8-1",
      "n": 1462,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.1717,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 251.05
    },
    {
      "sport": "soccer_intl",
      "time_bucket": "45-60",
      "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
      "n": 410,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.5693,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 233.42
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
      "n": 1088,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.1765,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 192.06
    },
    {
      "sport": "soccer_intl",
      "time_bucket": "75-90+",
      "prob_bucket": "0-.2",
      "n": 367,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.523,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 191.95
    },
    {
      "sport": "mlb",
      "time_bucket": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob_bucket": ".2-.4",
      "n": 617,
      "mean_abs_residual": 0.3085,
      "total_abs_residual_mass": 190.33
    }
  ],
  "as_of": "2026-09-16",
  "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}