{
  "edge_claimed": false,
  "descriptive_only": true,
  "method": "lag-1 sample autocorrelation of within-game signed residual (prob_t - terminal outcome), per (game_id, side) series ordered by ts",
  "floors": {
    "min_rows_per_game": 10,
    "min_residual_variance": 1e-09
  },
  "story": "Within-game residuals are strongly positively autocorrelated for both model and market because the outcome is terminal-constant and the probability path is smooth; the exhibit quantifies how far from independent within-game rows are (effective sample size << row count). DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, no advantage/return claim.",
  "sports": {
    "mlb": {
      "n_files": 178,
      "n_records": 27351,
      "n_series": 178,
      "model": {
        "n_games": 173,
        "mean": 0.9257,
        "median": 0.9713,
        "min": -0.002,
        "max": 0.9935,
        "share_positive": 0.9942,
        "share_ge_0_9": 0.896,
        "q25": 0.9458,
        "q75": 0.982,
        "skipped": {
          "low_n": 4,
          "flat": 1
        }
      },
      "market": {
        "n_games": 173,
        "mean": 0.9403,
        "median": 0.9645,
        "min": 0.3951,
        "max": 0.9934,
        "share_positive": 1.0,
        "share_ge_0_9": 0.8613,
        "q25": 0.9332,
        "q75": 0.9772,
        "skipped": {
          "low_n": 4,
          "flat": 1
        }
      },
      "autocorr_values": {
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        "market": [
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          0.9574,
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          0.9822,
          0.3951,
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          0.9147,
          0.9598,
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          0.925,
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          0.9767,
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          0.9699,
          0.9848,
          0.9694,
          0.9732,
          0.9534,
          0.9267,
          0.9655,
          0.9879,
          0.976,
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          0.9834,
          0.9335,
          0.9255,
          0.987,
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        ]
      }
    },
    "soccer_intl": {
      "n_files": 27,
      "n_records": 4265,
      "n_series": 27,
      "model": {
        "n_games": 26,
        "mean": 0.9301,
        "median": 0.9662,
        "min": 0.4695,
        "max": 0.9858,
        "share_positive": 1.0,
        "share_ge_0_9": 0.8462,
        "q25": 0.9383,
        "q75": 0.9778,
        "skipped": {
          "low_n": 1,
          "flat": 0
        }
      },
      "market": {
        "n_games": 26,
        "mean": 0.9104,
        "median": 0.9517,
        "min": 0.6035,
        "max": 0.9857,
        "share_positive": 1.0,
        "share_ge_0_9": 0.7692,
        "q25": 0.9098,
        "q75": 0.9731,
        "skipped": {
          "low_n": 1,
          "flat": 0
        }
      },
      "autocorr_values": {
        "model": [
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        ],
        "market": [
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          0.9754,
          0.9824
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "skipped": [
    {
      "sport": "mlb_clean",
      "reason": "byte-identical duplicate of mlb -- absent from reused SPORTS map"
    }
  ],
  "verdict": "mlb: median within-game lag-1 residual autocorr = model 0.971 (n=173 games), market 0.965 (n=173); share>=0.9 model 0.90 vs market 0.86. soccer_intl: median within-game lag-1 residual autocorr = model 0.966 (n=26 games), market 0.952 (n=26); share>=0.9 model 0.85 vs market 0.77. High positive values confirm within-game rows are far from independent (effective sample size << row count); DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, no advantage/return claim.",
  "plot_written": true,
  "as_of": "2026-09-16",
  "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}