{
  "edge_claimed": false,
  "sport": "soccer_intl",
  "n_rows": 4265,
  "murphy": {
    "model_prob": {
      "n": 4265,
      "brier": 0.332522,
      "reliability": 0.191982,
      "resolution": 0.038714,
      "uncertainty": 0.213485,
      "reconstructed_brier": 0.366753,
      "bins": [
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.0,
          "bin_hi": 0.1,
          "n": 1284,
          "mean_p": 0.0454,
          "mean_y": 0.6671
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.1,
          "bin_hi": 0.2,
          "n": 792,
          "mean_p": 0.1438,
          "mean_y": 0.5189
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.2,
          "bin_hi": 0.3,
          "n": 669,
          "mean_p": 0.2465,
          "mean_y": 0.4395
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.3,
          "bin_hi": 0.4,
          "n": 449,
          "mean_p": 0.3508,
          "mean_y": 0.7171
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.4,
          "bin_hi": 0.5,
          "n": 180,
          "mean_p": 0.4476,
          "mean_y": 1.0
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.5,
          "bin_hi": 0.6,
          "n": 202,
          "mean_p": 0.5512,
          "mean_y": 1.0
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.6,
          "bin_hi": 0.7,
          "n": 136,
          "mean_p": 0.6353,
          "mean_y": 0.9485
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.7,
          "bin_hi": 0.8,
          "n": 198,
          "mean_p": 0.7555,
          "mean_y": 1.0
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.8,
          "bin_hi": 0.9,
          "n": 194,
          "mean_p": 0.8409,
          "mean_y": 1.0
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.9,
          "bin_hi": 1.0,
          "n": 161,
          "mean_p": 0.9619,
          "mean_y": 1.0
        }
      ]
    },
    "market_prob": {
      "n": 4265,
      "brier": 0.195157,
      "reliability": 0.088088,
      "resolution": 0.071263,
      "uncertainty": 0.213485,
      "reconstructed_brier": 0.23031,
      "bins": [
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.0,
          "bin_hi": 0.1,
          "n": 603,
          "mean_p": 0.0592,
          "mean_y": 0.3093
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.1,
          "bin_hi": 0.2,
          "n": 486,
          "mean_p": 0.1639,
          "mean_y": 0.3477
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.2,
          "bin_hi": 0.3,
          "n": 969,
          "mean_p": 0.2405,
          "mean_y": 0.5537
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.3,
          "bin_hi": 0.4,
          "n": 224,
          "mean_p": 0.3474,
          "mean_y": 0.7567
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.4,
          "bin_hi": 0.5,
          "n": 405,
          "mean_p": 0.4512,
          "mean_y": 0.8889
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.5,
          "bin_hi": 0.6,
          "n": 467,
          "mean_p": 0.5559,
          "mean_y": 0.8951
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.6,
          "bin_hi": 0.7,
          "n": 223,
          "mean_p": 0.6506,
          "mean_y": 1.0
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.7,
          "bin_hi": 0.8,
          "n": 271,
          "mean_p": 0.7189,
          "mean_y": 0.9889
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.8,
          "bin_hi": 0.9,
          "n": 485,
          "mean_p": 0.8588,
          "mean_y": 1.0
        },
        {
          "bin_lo": 0.9,
          "bin_hi": 1.0,
          "n": 132,
          "mean_p": 0.912,
          "mean_y": 1.0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "minute_ece": {
    "buckets": [
      {
        "minute_lo": 0,
        "minute_hi": 15,
        "n": 566,
        "mean_p": 0.3468,
        "mean_y": 0.6837,
        "ece": 0.3369
      },
      {
        "minute_lo": 15,
        "minute_hi": 30,
        "n": 595,
        "mean_p": 0.3437,
        "mean_y": 0.6983,
        "ece": 0.3547
      },
      {
        "minute_lo": 30,
        "minute_hi": 45,
        "n": 554,
        "mean_p": 0.34,
        "mean_y": 0.685,
        "ece": 0.345
      },
      {
        "minute_lo": 45,
        "minute_hi": 60,
        "n": 783,
        "mean_p": 0.289,
        "mean_y": 0.6284,
        "ece": 0.3393
      },
      {
        "minute_lo": 60,
        "minute_hi": 75,
        "n": 495,
        "mean_p": 0.2176,
        "mean_y": 0.6646,
        "ece": 0.4471
      },
      {
        "minute_lo": 75,
        "minute_hi": 91,
        "n": 390,
        "mean_p": 0.1035,
        "mean_y": 0.5859,
        "ece": 0.4824
      }
    ],
    "overall_weighted_ece": 0.3748,
    "n": 3383
  },
  "disagreement_buckets": [
    {
      "bucket": "<.02",
      "n": 554,
      "model_brier": 0.142768,
      "market_brier": 0.137637,
      "model_wins_rate": 0.2292
    },
    {
      "bucket": ".02-.05",
      "n": 679,
      "model_brier": 0.113592,
      "market_brier": 0.104293,
      "model_wins_rate": 0.3756
    },
    {
      "bucket": ".05-.10",
      "n": 741,
      "model_brier": 0.132395,
      "market_brier": 0.103844,
      "model_wins_rate": 0.4103
    },
    {
      "bucket": ">=.10",
      "n": 2291,
      "model_brier": 0.508022,
      "market_brier": 0.26553,
      "model_wins_rate": 0.1048
    }
  ],
  "honest_note": "soccer_intl corpus: n=4265 rows -- far smaller than mlb/nba, wider CIs, single-fold reads not durable. Murphy: model Brier 0.3325 vs market 0.1952 (gap=+0.1374); market leads. Minute-bucket ECE (weighted): 0.3748.",
  "plot_written": true,
  "as_of": "2026-09-16",
  "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}