{
 "component": "soccer_form_stability",
 "mode": "DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY",
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "generated_at": "2026-07-23T03:22:16.322763+00:00",
 "floors": {
  "inherited_min_sample": "n_matches>=200 (per upstream claim; below-floor teams pre-excluded)",
  "min_overlap": 30
 },
 "truth_source": "docs/JOB_EVIDENCE_PACKET.md",
 "temporal_split_half": {
  "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE_IN_STORE",
  "reason": "each claim store holds ONE as-of ranking vector per metric (form=trailing_10_asof_corpus_end, strength=asof_2026-06-28); no within-season time series to cut into halves.",
  "fields_needed": [
   "per-team form at >=2 disjoint chronological windows in one season (e.g. first-half vs second-half), OR",
   "a per-team match-level result series with dates so windows can be cut here (store exposes only one as-of ranking vector per metric)."
  ]
 },
 "sources": {
  "form": {
   "claim_id": "soccer_intl_trailing10_form_win_rate_fullpop",
   "metric": "form_win_rate",
   "window": "trailing_10_asof_corpus_end",
   "min_sample": {
    "n_matches": 200
   },
   "n_considered": 336,
   "n_excluded_below_floor": 157,
   "n_ranked": 179,
   "validation": {
    "n_claims": 1,
    "n_verified": 1,
    "n_mismatch": 0,
    "edge_claimed": false
   }
  },
  "strength": {
   "claim_id": "soccer_intl_strength_full_asof_2026-06-28",
   "metric": "strength",
   "window": "asof_2026-06-28",
   "min_sample": {
    "n_matches": 200
   },
   "n_considered": 326,
   "n_excluded_below_floor": 173,
   "n_ranked": 153,
   "validation": {
    "n_claims": 1,
    "n_verified": 1,
    "n_mismatch": 0,
    "edge_claimed": false
   }
  }
 },
 "status": "ok",
 "corpus_dir": "data/cache/intel_claims",
 "concordance": {
  "measure": "cross-lens rank stability (parallel-forms): trailing-10 form win-rate vs net-xG EW strength, shared above-floor national teams",
  "n_overlap": 153,
  "n_form_only": 26,
  "n_strength_only": 0,
  "spearman_rho": 0.6419,
  "pearson_r": 0.6369,
  "tie_fraction_form": 0.9346,
  "tie_fraction_strength": 0.0,
  "points": [
   {
    "team": "Albania",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": -0.0345
   },
   {
    "team": "Algeria",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 1.4128
   },
   {
    "team": "Andorra",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -1.2692
   },
   {
    "team": "Angola",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.3089
   },
   {
    "team": "Argentina",
    "form": 0.8,
    "strength": 1.9769
   },
   {
    "team": "Armenia",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -1.4114
   },
   {
    "team": "Australia",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.9031
   },
   {
    "team": "Austria",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 1.4615
   },
   {
    "team": "Azerbaijan",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.9155
   },
   {
    "team": "Bahrain",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.4624
   },
   {
    "team": "Bangladesh",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.558
   },
   {
    "team": "Barbados",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.8577
   },
   {
    "team": "Belarus",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.3282
   },
   {
    "team": "Belgium",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 1.5989
   },
   {
    "team": "Benin",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.525
   },
   {
    "team": "Bolivia",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -1.1696
   },
   {
    "team": "Bosnia and Herzegovina",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.0952
   },
   {
    "team": "Botswana",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.7635
   },
   {
    "team": "Brazil",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 0.9214
   },
   {
    "team": "Bulgaria",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.5795
   },
   {
    "team": "Burkina Faso",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.5711
   },
   {
    "team": "Burundi",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.7533
   },
   {
    "team": "Cambodia",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.2756
   },
   {
    "team": "Cameroon",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.4952
   },
   {
    "team": "Canada",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.6352
   },
   {
    "team": "Cape Verde",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.2306
   },
   {
    "team": "Chile",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": -0.1011
   },
   {
    "team": "China",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.2878
   },
   {
    "team": "Colombia",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 0.9745
   },
   {
    "team": "Congo",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -1.1047
   },
   {
    "team": "Costa Rica",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": 0.058
   },
   {
    "team": "Croatia",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.8414
   },
   {
    "team": "Cuba",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.5698
   },
   {
    "team": "Cyprus",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.5808
   },
   {
    "team": "Czech Republic",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 0.8158
   },
   {
    "team": "DR Congo",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.6103
   },
   {
    "team": "Denmark",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.9364
   },
   {
    "team": "Ecuador",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.5105
   },
   {
    "team": "Egypt",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.5878
   },
   {
    "team": "El Salvador",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.481
   },
   {
    "team": "England",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 1.6286
   },
   {
    "team": "Estonia",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.8111
   },
   {
    "team": "Eswatini",
    "form": 0.0,
    "strength": -0.9999
   },
   {
    "team": "Ethiopia",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": -0.4299
   },
   {
    "team": "Faroe Islands",
    "form": 0.7,
    "strength": -0.171
   },
   {
    "team": "Finland",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.5138
   },
   {
    "team": "France",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 1.2745
   },
   {
    "team": "Gabon",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.0536
   },
   {
    "team": "Georgia",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.2235
   },
   {
    "team": "Germany",
    "form": 0.8,
    "strength": 1.6719
   },
   {
    "team": "Ghana",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.0185
   },
   {
    "team": "Greece",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.4363
   },
   {
    "team": "Grenada",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": -0.8314
   },
   {
    "team": "Guatemala",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.657
   },
   {
    "team": "Guinea",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.3204
   },
   {
    "team": "Haiti",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.7884
   },
   {
    "team": "Honduras",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.068
   },
   {
    "team": "Hong Kong",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 0.5424
   },
   {
    "team": "Hungary",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.0896
   },
   {
    "team": "Iceland",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.5343
   },
   {
    "team": "India",
    "form": 0.0,
    "strength": -0.5498
   },
   {
    "team": "Indonesia",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.1594
   },
   {
    "team": "Iran",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 1.2042
   },
   {
    "team": "Iraq",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.0055
   },
   {
    "team": "Israel",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": -0.161
   },
   {
    "team": "Italy",
    "form": 0.8,
    "strength": 0.758
   },
   {
    "team": "Ivory Coast",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 1.2155
   },
   {
    "team": "Jamaica",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 0.2554
   },
   {
    "team": "Japan",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 1.6339
   },
   {
    "team": "Jordan",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.0048
   },
   {
    "team": "Kazakhstan",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.6254
   },
   {
    "team": "Kenya",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": -0.2028
   },
   {
    "team": "Kuwait",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.5206
   },
   {
    "team": "Latvia",
    "form": 0.0,
    "strength": -0.8766
   },
   {
    "team": "Lebanon",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.5227
   },
   {
    "team": "Lesotho",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.7779
   },
   {
    "team": "Liberia",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.4936
   },
   {
    "team": "Libya",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.1551
   },
   {
    "team": "Liechtenstein",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -2.4266
   },
   {
    "team": "Lithuania",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.9371
   },
   {
    "team": "Luxembourg",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.9875
   },
   {
    "team": "Madagascar",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": -0.1093
   },
   {
    "team": "Malawi",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.1812
   },
   {
    "team": "Malaysia",
    "form": 0.7,
    "strength": 0.8205
   },
   {
    "team": "Maldives",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -1.0302
   },
   {
    "team": "Mali",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.6006
   },
   {
    "team": "Malta",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.9904
   },
   {
    "team": "Martinique",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.4373
   },
   {
    "team": "Mauritania",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.5059
   },
   {
    "team": "Mauritius",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.7359
   },
   {
    "team": "Mexico",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 0.8665
   },
   {
    "team": "Moldova",
    "form": 0.0,
    "strength": -1.3873
   },
   {
    "team": "Morocco",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 1.7104
   },
   {
    "team": "Mozambique",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.5145
   },
   {
    "team": "Myanmar",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": -1.2301
   },
   {
    "team": "Namibia",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.6803
   },
   {
    "team": "Nepal",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -1.0218
   },
   {
    "team": "Netherlands",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 1.3171
   },
   {
    "team": "New Zealand",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": 0.4101
   },
   {
    "team": "Nigeria",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.929
   },
   {
    "team": "North Korea",
    "form": 0.0,
    "strength": -0.5683
   },
   {
    "team": "North Macedonia",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.413
   },
   {
    "team": "Northern Ireland",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": -0.1525
   },
   {
    "team": "Norway",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 1.7219
   },
   {
    "team": "Oman",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.178
   },
   {
    "team": "Palestine",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.2212
   },
   {
    "team": "Panama",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.3024
   },
   {
    "team": "Paraguay",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.0762
   },
   {
    "team": "Peru",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.5296
   },
   {
    "team": "Philippines",
    "form": 0.8,
    "strength": 0.593
   },
   {
    "team": "Poland",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.1746
   },
   {
    "team": "Portugal",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 1.4671
   },
   {
    "team": "Qatar",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.3469
   },
   {
    "team": "Republic of Ireland",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.2692
   },
   {
    "team": "Romania",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 0.5225
   },
   {
    "team": "Russia",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 1.4867
   },
   {
    "team": "Rwanda",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.1395
   },
   {
    "team": "Saint Kitts and Nevis",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": -0.5397
   },
   {
    "team": "San Marino",
    "form": 0.0,
    "strength": -2.4524
   },
   {
    "team": "Saudi Arabia",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.0042
   },
   {
    "team": "Scotland",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.5158
   },
   {
    "team": "Senegal",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 1.0746
   },
   {
    "team": "Serbia",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": -0.4044
   },
   {
    "team": "Singapore",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": -0.1058
   },
   {
    "team": "Slovakia",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 0.085
   },
   {
    "team": "Slovenia",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.0582
   },
   {
    "team": "South Africa",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.4469
   },
   {
    "team": "South Korea",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 0.9084
   },
   {
    "team": "Spain",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": 1.626
   },
   {
    "team": "Sri Lanka",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": -0.8172
   },
   {
    "team": "Sudan",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": -0.7529
   },
   {
    "team": "Sweden",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.4745
   },
   {
    "team": "Switzerland",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.7999
   },
   {
    "team": "Syria",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.3029
   },
   {
    "team": "Tajikistan",
    "form": 0.7,
    "strength": 0.6137
   },
   {
    "team": "Tanzania",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.1863
   },
   {
    "team": "Thailand",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 1.0367
   },
   {
    "team": "Togo",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.0416
   },
   {
    "team": "Trinidad and Tobago",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.7587
   },
   {
    "team": "Tunisia",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": 0.0353
   },
   {
    "team": "Turkey",
    "form": 0.6,
    "strength": 0.6707
   },
   {
    "team": "Uganda",
    "form": 0.4,
    "strength": -0.3341
   },
   {
    "team": "Ukraine",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.0169
   },
   {
    "team": "United Arab Emirates",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.1983
   },
   {
    "team": "United States",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.4681
   },
   {
    "team": "Uruguay",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.256
   },
   {
    "team": "Uzbekistan",
    "form": 0.2,
    "strength": 0.5446
   },
   {
    "team": "Venezuela",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.2058
   },
   {
    "team": "Vietnam",
    "form": 0.9,
    "strength": 0.7956
   },
   {
    "team": "Wales",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": 0.2794
   },
   {
    "team": "Yemen",
    "form": 0.5,
    "strength": 0.2964
   },
   {
    "team": "Zambia",
    "form": 0.1,
    "strength": -0.6976
   },
   {
    "team": "Zimbabwe",
    "form": 0.3,
    "strength": -0.2688
   }
  ]
 },
 "caveats": [
  "DESCRIPTIVE cross-lens rank concordance only -- NOT a temporal split-half and NOT a predictor of any future match; soccer_intl PREDICTIVE gate is CLOSED upstream (NO_ADD_BEYOND_MARKET). No market/money/return advantage claimed.",
  "The two lenses differ in horizon (form=trailing 10 matches; strength=full EW history) -- read the correlation as convergent validity, not pure persistence.",
  "Upstream form win-rate is quantized to 1 decimal (tie_fraction_form=0.9346) -> inflates ties + ATTENUATES rho toward 0; reported rho is tie-corrected (average-rank)."
 ],
 "honest_note": "n=153 shared national teams. Spearman rho=0.6419, Pearson r=0.6369 between trailing-10 form win-rate and net-xG strength -- a parallel-forms rank-stability read, NOT a temporal split-half (that series is absent from the store) and NOT a predictor. edge_claimed=False.",
 "plot_written": true
}