{
 "generated_at": "2026-07-25T11:13:42.974244+00:00",
 "descriptive_only": true,
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "headline": "5 claim families changed their verdict as more data arrived; here is each mind-change, in sequence.",
 "method": "These are our own preregistered re-tests: verdict history per claim family (sport x hypothesis) ordered by run_ts, current status = last entry. A verdict flip means the system re-tested and updated its own earlier claim as more or re-cleaned data arrived -- that is the process working, not a bug.",
 "source_artifact": "scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/fwd_claim_scoreboard.json",
 "summary": {
  "n_families": 259,
  "verified": 121,
  "null": 99,
  "retracted": 7,
  "not_testable": 28,
  "provisional": 4
 },
 "flips": [
  {
   "sport": "basketball_nba",
   "hypothesis": "three_in_four_fatigue",
   "current_status": "verified",
   "verdict_sequence": [
    "NULL_LOCAL",
    "CONFIRMED_LOCAL"
   ],
   "steps": [
    {
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "status": "null",
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "n": 4762,
     "effect": -0.916,
     "run_ts": null
    },
    {
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "status": "verified",
     "corpus": "player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26",
     "n": 7222,
     "effect": -1.213,
     "run_ts": null
    }
   ],
   "one_line": "First NULL_LOCAL on n=4762 (player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26), then CONFIRMED_LOCAL on n=7222 (player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26)."
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "hypothesis": "reliever_3in3d_fatigue",
   "current_status": "verified",
   "verdict_sequence": [
    "NULL_LOCAL",
    "NULL_LOCAL",
    "CONFIRMED_LOCAL"
   ],
   "steps": [
    {
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "status": "null",
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "n": 9054,
     "effect": 0.01839,
     "run_ts": null
    },
    {
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "status": "null",
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "n": 8897,
     "effect": -0.03538,
     "run_ts": null
    },
    {
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "status": "verified",
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "n": 8927,
     "effect": -0.04412,
     "run_ts": null
    }
   ],
   "one_line": "First NULL_LOCAL on n=9054 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025), then CONFIRMED_LOCAL on n=8927 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025)."
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "hypothesis": "reliever_3in3d_fatigue__combined",
   "current_status": "null",
   "verdict_sequence": [
    "PROVISIONAL",
    "NULL_LOCAL"
   ],
   "steps": [
    {
     "verdict": "PROVISIONAL",
     "status": "provisional",
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "n": 26878,
     "effect": null,
     "run_ts": null
    },
    {
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "status": "null",
     "corpus": "bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025",
     "n": 26878,
     "effect": null,
     "run_ts": null
    }
   ],
   "one_line": "First PROVISIONAL on n=26878 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025), then NULL_LOCAL on n=26878 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025)."
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "hypothesis": "staff_dayafter_fatigue_chain",
   "current_status": "null",
   "verdict_sequence": [
    "NULL_LOCAL",
    "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
    "NULL_LOCAL"
   ],
   "steps": [
    {
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "status": "null",
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount",
     "n": 2087,
     "effect": 0.0789,
     "run_ts": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z"
    },
    {
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "status": "verified",
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount",
     "n": 2160,
     "effect": 0.3915,
     "run_ts": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z"
    },
    {
     "verdict": "NULL_LOCAL",
     "status": "null",
     "corpus": "savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount",
     "n": 2078,
     "effect": 0.3266,
     "run_ts": "2026-07-10T08:23:40Z"
    }
   ],
   "one_line": "First NULL_LOCAL on n=2087 (savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount), then NULL_LOCAL on n=2078 (savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount)."
  },
  {
   "sport": "tennis",
   "hypothesis": "break_point_conversion_by_set_number",
   "current_status": "verified",
   "verdict_sequence": [
    "NOT_TESTABLE",
    "CONFIRMED_LOCAL"
   ],
   "steps": [
    {
     "verdict": "NOT_TESTABLE",
     "status": "not_testable",
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "n": 34145,
     "effect": -0.017,
     "run_ts": null
    },
    {
     "verdict": "CONFIRMED_LOCAL",
     "status": "verified",
     "corpus": "slam_points_2011_2015",
     "n": 34145,
     "effect": -0.017,
     "run_ts": null
    }
   ],
   "one_line": "First NOT_TESTABLE on n=34145 (slam_points_2011_2015), then CONFIRMED_LOCAL on n=34145 (slam_points_2011_2015)."
  }
 ],
 "retracted": [
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "hypothesis": "meta_label_divergence_bucket_Q1",
   "first_run_ts": "undated",
   "last_run_ts": "undated",
   "days_lived": null,
   "n_history_rows": 1,
   "what_killed_it": "FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=20, effect=0.45)"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "hypothesis": "meta_label_divergence_bucket_Q2",
   "first_run_ts": "undated",
   "last_run_ts": "undated",
   "days_lived": null,
   "n_history_rows": 1,
   "what_killed_it": "FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=19, effect=0.3158)"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "hypothesis": "meta_label_divergence_bucket_Q3",
   "first_run_ts": "undated",
   "last_run_ts": "undated",
   "days_lived": null,
   "n_history_rows": 1,
   "what_killed_it": "FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=19, effect=0.3158)"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "hypothesis": "meta_label_divergence_bucket_Q4",
   "first_run_ts": "undated",
   "last_run_ts": "undated",
   "days_lived": null,
   "n_history_rows": 1,
   "what_killed_it": "FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=18, effect=0.3333)"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "hypothesis": "milb_debut_freshness_flag",
   "first_run_ts": "undated",
   "last_run_ts": "undated",
   "days_lived": null,
   "n_history_rows": 1,
   "what_killed_it": "REJECT on corpus 'games_current_season_2026__savant_debut_proxy' (n=39, effect=0.000394)"
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "hypothesis": "oaa_trailing_fielding_quality_babip_conversion",
   "first_run_ts": "undated",
   "last_run_ts": "undated",
   "days_lived": null,
   "n_history_rows": 2,
   "what_killed_it": "REJECT on corpus 'savant_playlevel__2025_2026' (n=55063, effect=None)"
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer",
   "hypothesis": "substitution_timing_moderates_shift__replication_big4_2015_16",
   "first_run_ts": "2026-07-10T13:55:32Z",
   "last_run_ts": "2026-07-10T13:55:32Z",
   "days_lived": 0,
   "n_history_rows": 1,
   "what_killed_it": "FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'disjoint_competition_group' (n=1691, effect=0.01861)"
  }
 ],
 "dating_coverage": {
  "n_history_rows_total": 287,
  "n_with_run_ts": 145,
  "note": "run_ts is present on only some rows; undated flips show sequence without dates."
 },
 "confounds": [
  "5 flips is a small, anecdotal set -- this is qualitative case study, not a rate.",
  "run_ts is missing on many history rows, so 'days-lived' is a lower bound and some flips are undated.",
  "a flip reflects more/re-cleaned data arriving, NOT that the earlier verdict was careless."
 ]
}