{
 "edge_claimed": false,
 "source_artifact": "out/state_conditioned_calibration.json",
 "method": "For each adjacent-time state transition A->B (source==model buckets, n>=30), attribute win-prob impact as mean_y(B) - mean_y(A) where mean_y is the state's calibrated realized win rate.",
 "assumptions": [
  "mean_y (realized win rate per bucket) is the state's calibrated win prob.",
  "Transitions restricted to consecutive time buckets; no skipping.",
  "Not observed transition frequencies -- the win-prob DIFFERENCE between two states.",
  "Buckets thinner than n=30 are dropped (noisy mean_y)."
 ],
 "sports": {
  "mlb": {
   "n_transitions": 40,
   "transitions": [
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.2401,
      "n": 1033
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0239,
      "n": 1088
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.2162,
     "min_support_n": 1033
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.2401,
      "n": 1033
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.1794,
      "n": 2285
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.0607,
     "min_support_n": 1033
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.2401,
      "n": 1033
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.5089,
      "n": 2468
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.2688,
     "min_support_n": 1033
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.2401,
      "n": 1033
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7664,
      "n": 2449
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.5263,
     "min_support_n": 1033
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.2401,
      "n": 1033
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9651,
      "n": 1462
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.725,
     "min_support_n": 1033
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4882,
      "n": 5754
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0239,
      "n": 1088
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.4643,
     "min_support_n": 1088
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4882,
      "n": 5754
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.1794,
      "n": 2285
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.3088,
     "min_support_n": 2285
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4882,
      "n": 5754
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.5089,
      "n": 2468
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.0207,
     "min_support_n": 2468
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4882,
      "n": 5754
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7664,
      "n": 2449
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.2782,
     "min_support_n": 2449
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4882,
      "n": 5754
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9651,
      "n": 1462
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.4769,
     "min_support_n": 1462
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.6517,
      "n": 2702
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0239,
      "n": 1088
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.6278,
     "min_support_n": 1088
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.6517,
      "n": 2702
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.1794,
      "n": 2285
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.4723,
     "min_support_n": 2285
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.6517,
      "n": 2702
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.5089,
      "n": 2468
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.1428,
     "min_support_n": 2468
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.6517,
      "n": 2702
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7664,
      "n": 2449
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.1147,
     "min_support_n": 2449
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "early(inn1-3)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.6517,
      "n": 2702
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9651,
      "n": 1462
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.3134,
     "min_support_n": 1462
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0239,
      "n": 1088
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0666,
      "n": 2884
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.0427,
     "min_support_n": 1088
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0239,
      "n": 1088
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.0843,
      "n": 617
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.0604,
     "min_support_n": 617
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0239,
      "n": 1088
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4793,
      "n": 820
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.4554,
     "min_support_n": 820
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0239,
      "n": 1088
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7779,
      "n": 752
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.754,
     "min_support_n": 752
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0239,
      "n": 1088
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9498,
      "n": 2369
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.9259,
     "min_support_n": 1088
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.1794,
      "n": 2285
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0666,
      "n": 2884
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.1128,
     "min_support_n": 2285
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.1794,
      "n": 2285
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.0843,
      "n": 617
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.0951,
     "min_support_n": 617
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.1794,
      "n": 2285
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4793,
      "n": 820
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.2999,
     "min_support_n": 820
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.1794,
      "n": 2285
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7779,
      "n": 752
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.5985,
     "min_support_n": 752
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.1794,
      "n": 2285
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9498,
      "n": 2369
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.7704,
     "min_support_n": 2285
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.5089,
      "n": 2468
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0666,
      "n": 2884
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.4423,
     "min_support_n": 2468
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.5089,
      "n": 2468
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.0843,
      "n": 617
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.4246,
     "min_support_n": 617
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.5089,
      "n": 2468
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4793,
      "n": 820
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.0296,
     "min_support_n": 820
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.5089,
      "n": 2468
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7779,
      "n": 752
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.269,
     "min_support_n": 752
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.5089,
      "n": 2468
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9498,
      "n": 2369
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.4409,
     "min_support_n": 2369
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7664,
      "n": 2449
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0666,
      "n": 2884
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.6998,
     "min_support_n": 2449
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7664,
      "n": 2449
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.0843,
      "n": 617
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.6821,
     "min_support_n": 617
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7664,
      "n": 2449
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4793,
      "n": 820
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.2871,
     "min_support_n": 820
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7664,
      "n": 2449
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7779,
      "n": 752
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.0115,
     "min_support_n": 752
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7664,
      "n": 2449
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9498,
      "n": 2369
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.1834,
     "min_support_n": 2369
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9651,
      "n": 1462
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.0666,
      "n": 2884
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.8985,
     "min_support_n": 1462
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9651,
      "n": 1462
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.0843,
      "n": 617
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.8808,
     "min_support_n": 617
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9651,
      "n": 1462
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 0.4793,
      "n": 820
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.4858,
     "min_support_n": 820
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9651,
      "n": 1462
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.7779,
      "n": 752
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.1872,
     "min_support_n": 752
    },
    {
     "sport": "mlb",
     "from": {
      "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9651,
      "n": 1462
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "late(inn7+)",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 0.9498,
      "n": 2369
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.0153,
     "min_support_n": 1462
    }
   ]
  },
  "soccer_intl": {
   "n_transitions": 80,
   "transitions": [
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.3899,
      "n": 109
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.569,
      "n": 174
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.1791,
     "min_support_n": 109
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.3899,
      "n": 109
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.5396,
      "n": 227
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.1497,
     "min_support_n": 109
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.3899,
      "n": 109
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 120
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.6101,
     "min_support_n": 109
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.3899,
      "n": 109
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 43
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.6101,
     "min_support_n": 43
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.3899,
      "n": 109
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 31
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.6101,
     "min_support_n": 31
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.5739,
      "n": 264
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.569,
      "n": 174
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.0049,
     "min_support_n": 174
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.5739,
      "n": 264
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.5396,
      "n": 227
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.0343,
     "min_support_n": 227
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.5739,
      "n": 264
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 120
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.4261,
     "min_support_n": 120
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.5739,
      "n": 264
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 43
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.4261,
     "min_support_n": 43
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.5739,
      "n": 264
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "15-30",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 31
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.4261,
     "min_support_n": 31
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "0-15",
      "prob": ".4-.6",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 158
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      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 64
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 100
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.0,
     "min_support_n": 64
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5732,
      "n": 410
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5585,
      "n": 342
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.0147,
     "min_support_n": 342
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5732,
      "n": 410
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.8295,
      "n": 88
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.2563,
     "min_support_n": 88
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5732,
      "n": 410
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 45
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.4268,
     "min_support_n": 45
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.4676,
      "n": 216
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5585,
      "n": 342
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.0909,
     "min_support_n": 216
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.4676,
      "n": 216
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.8295,
      "n": 88
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.3619,
     "min_support_n": 88
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.4676,
      "n": 216
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 45
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.5324,
     "min_support_n": 45
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.9825,
      "n": 57
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5585,
      "n": 342
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.424,
     "min_support_n": 57
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.9825,
      "n": 57
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.8295,
      "n": 88
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.153,
     "min_support_n": 57
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".6-.8",
      "mean_y": 0.9825,
      "n": 57
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 45
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.0175,
     "min_support_n": 45
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 100
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5585,
      "n": 342
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.4415,
     "min_support_n": 100
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 100
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.8295,
      "n": 88
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.1705,
     "min_support_n": 88
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "45-60",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 100
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 45
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.0,
     "min_support_n": 45
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5585,
      "n": 342
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "75-90+",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5599,
      "n": 367
     },
     "winprob_delta": 0.0014,
     "min_support_n": 342
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".2-.4",
      "mean_y": 0.8295,
      "n": 88
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "75-90+",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5599,
      "n": 367
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.2696,
     "min_support_n": 88
    },
    {
     "sport": "soccer_intl",
     "from": {
      "time": "60-75",
      "prob": ".8-1",
      "mean_y": 1.0,
      "n": 45
     },
     "to": {
      "time": "75-90+",
      "prob": "0-.2",
      "mean_y": 0.5599,
      "n": 367
     },
     "winprob_delta": -0.4401,
     "min_support_n": 45
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "skipped": [
  {
   "sport": "nba",
   "reason": "only last_run_ingame_nba_winprob.json (checkpoint Brier) exists; no per-state-bucket realized win rate (mean_y) to attribute transitions"
  }
 ],
 "source_as_of": "2026-09-16",
 "biggest_drops": [
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": ".8-1",
    "mean_y": 0.9651,
    "n": 1462
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "late(inn7+)",
    "prob": "0-.2",
    "mean_y": 0.0666,
    "n": 2884
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.8985,
   "min_support_n": 1462
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": ".8-1",
    "mean_y": 0.9651,
    "n": 1462
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "late(inn7+)",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.0843,
    "n": 617
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.8808,
   "min_support_n": 617
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "15-30",
    "prob": ".4-.6",
    "mean_y": 1.0,
    "n": 120
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "30-45",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.225,
    "n": 120
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.775,
   "min_support_n": 120
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "15-30",
    "prob": ".6-.8",
    "mean_y": 1.0,
    "n": 43
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "30-45",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.225,
    "n": 120
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.775,
   "min_support_n": 43
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "15-30",
    "prob": ".8-1",
    "mean_y": 1.0,
    "n": 31
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "30-45",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.225,
    "n": 120
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.775,
   "min_support_n": 31
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": ".6-.8",
    "mean_y": 0.7664,
    "n": 2449
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "late(inn7+)",
    "prob": "0-.2",
    "mean_y": 0.0666,
    "n": 2884
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.6998,
   "min_support_n": 2449
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": ".6-.8",
    "mean_y": 0.7664,
    "n": 2449
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "late(inn7+)",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.0843,
    "n": 617
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.6821,
   "min_support_n": 617
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "early(inn1-3)",
    "prob": ".6-.8",
    "mean_y": 0.6517,
    "n": 2702
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": "0-.2",
    "mean_y": 0.0239,
    "n": 1088
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.6278,
   "min_support_n": 1088
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "30-45",
    "prob": ".4-.6",
    "mean_y": 1.0,
    "n": 104
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "45-60",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.4676,
    "n": 216
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.5324,
   "min_support_n": 104
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "30-45",
    "prob": ".8-1",
    "mean_y": 1.0,
    "n": 64
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "45-60",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.4676,
    "n": 216
   },
   "winprob_delta": -0.5324,
   "min_support_n": 64
  }
 ],
 "biggest_gains": [
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": "0-.2",
    "mean_y": 0.0239,
    "n": 1088
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "late(inn7+)",
    "prob": ".8-1",
    "mean_y": 0.9498,
    "n": 2369
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.9259,
   "min_support_n": 1088
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "30-45",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.225,
    "n": 120
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "45-60",
    "prob": ".8-1",
    "mean_y": 1.0,
    "n": 100
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.775,
   "min_support_n": 100
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.1794,
    "n": 2285
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "late(inn7+)",
    "prob": ".8-1",
    "mean_y": 0.9498,
    "n": 2369
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.7704,
   "min_support_n": 2285
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "30-45",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.225,
    "n": 120
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "45-60",
    "prob": ".6-.8",
    "mean_y": 0.9825,
    "n": 57
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.7575,
   "min_support_n": 57
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": "0-.2",
    "mean_y": 0.0239,
    "n": 1088
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "late(inn7+)",
    "prob": ".6-.8",
    "mean_y": 0.7779,
    "n": 752
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.754,
   "min_support_n": 752
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "early(inn1-3)",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.2401,
    "n": 1033
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": ".8-1",
    "mean_y": 0.9651,
    "n": 1462
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.725,
   "min_support_n": 1033
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "0-15",
    "prob": "0-.2",
    "mean_y": 0.3899,
    "n": 109
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "15-30",
    "prob": ".4-.6",
    "mean_y": 1.0,
    "n": 120
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.6101,
   "min_support_n": 109
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "0-15",
    "prob": "0-.2",
    "mean_y": 0.3899,
    "n": 109
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "15-30",
    "prob": ".6-.8",
    "mean_y": 1.0,
    "n": 43
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.6101,
   "min_support_n": 43
  },
  {
   "sport": "soccer_intl",
   "from": {
    "time": "0-15",
    "prob": "0-.2",
    "mean_y": 0.3899,
    "n": 109
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "15-30",
    "prob": ".8-1",
    "mean_y": 1.0,
    "n": 31
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.6101,
   "min_support_n": 31
  },
  {
   "sport": "mlb",
   "from": {
    "time": "mid(inn4-6)",
    "prob": ".2-.4",
    "mean_y": 0.1794,
    "n": 2285
   },
   "to": {
    "time": "late(inn7+)",
    "prob": ".6-.8",
    "mean_y": 0.7779,
    "n": 752
   },
   "winprob_delta": 0.5985,
   "min_support_n": 752
  }
 ],
 "verdict": "Largest calibrated win-prob drop: mlb mid(inn4-6):.8-1 -> late(inn7+):0-.2 = -0.8985 (min support n=1462). Any in-game move decomposes into the adjacent-time bucket transition it crossed.",
 "plot_written": true,
 "as_of": "2026-09-17",
 "corpus": "data/cache/ingame_grade_joined/{mlb_segmented,soccer_intl_segmented}"
}