Lab
Instruments & counterfactuals
Descriptive instruments and counterfactual replays. edge_claimed:false throughout -- these surfaces measure, they do not claim.
Outcome-free descriptive instruments over the joined in-game corpora. They track whether the two forecasters agree more and whether predictive uncertainty collapses as a game resolves. Entropy decay late in a game is expected as probabilities move toward 0 or 1; it is not a finding. Every panel is a textbook measure applied to our corpus, not a new method, and claims no edge.
Gap + entropy over game-time (MLB)
STANDARD_INSTRUMENTedge_claimed:false
GAME-TIME CHECKPOINT (1 to 10)
Mean |model-market| probability gap (amber) and mean market Bernoulli entropy in bits (blue) per inning checkpoint, MLB. Source: market_convergence.json.
Gap + entropy over game-time (soccer)
STANDARD_INSTRUMENTedge_claimed:false
GAME-TIME CHECKPOINT (0 to 90)
Same instrument on international soccer, per 5-minute checkpoint. Market entropy falls from 0.82 to 0.44 bits as matches resolve. Source: market_convergence.json.
Market-disagreement profile (MLB)
STANDARD_INSTRUMENTedge_claimed:false
| gap bucket | n | model brier | market brier | model closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <.02 | 4649 | 0.130 | 0.129 | 0.417 |
| .02-.05 | 5690 | 0.162 | 0.161 | 0.413 |
| .05-.10 | 8482 | 0.179 | 0.177 | 0.348 |
| >=.10 | 8530 | 0.178 | 0.130 | 0.199 |
Rows bucketed by |model-market| prob gap; per-bucket Brier and the share where our model lands closer to the outcome. Where the two forecasters disagree most (>=.10), the market is sharper (model_closer_rate 0.38) -- shown, not hidden. Source: market_disagreement_profile.json.
Other staged instruments
STANDARD_INSTRUMENTedge_claimed:false
- tick_microstructuremarket-microstructure MEASUREMENT (latency/cadence) -- NOT a trading signal
- info_arrival_curvenot staged on this clone
- residual_autocorrelationlag-1 sample autocorrelation of within-game signed residual (prob_t - terminal outcome), per (game_id, side) series ordered by ts
- micro_absorptionpregame per-series consecutive-snapshot |devigged_prob| movement, bucketed by minutes-to-commence, from own scraped line_history
- micro_closing_decayConsensus (median) devigged market P(home win) bucketed by hours-to-start into T-24h/T-6h/T-1h/close, scored Brier + log-loss vs the settled ESPN outcome; paired within-game close-vs-T-24h delta.
Each links to its raw artifact; a VALIDATION_PENDING chip means the file was not staged on this clone.