Demo -- read-only snapshot of the live system as of 2026-07-16T01:45:31Z; no live data, paper units only.
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A calibrated sports predictor that publishes its own scorecard against a sharp market -- losses, nulls, and retractions included.

Every number below is copied verbatim from a committed artifact and wears its receipt: source path, as-of date, and verification status. No edge is claimed anywhere.

POSITIONING calibration, not profit · edge_claimed: false on every artifact
The measured sharpness result -- MLB in-game
+0.7327 CRPS

Model total-runs forecast is sharper than the market's at end of inning 7 (n=55, 95% CI [+0.4131, +1.0810]). MODEL_SHARPER_PROVISIONAL -- still provisional on a small sample. A sharpness result measured leak-free, not an edge.

And the honest reading
match, do not beat

Across in-game win-prob checkpoints the market is as sharp or sharper. Model Brier 0.2377 vs market 0.2067 on MLB (n=78,986); NBA end-Q1 favors the market too. Both readings are true. We publish both.

Cross-sport calibration scoreboard

model vs market -- paired Brier / CRPS delta, 95% CI, verdict

as of 2026-07-22T20:15:22.041778+00:00
sportmarketcheckpointnmodel − market95% CIverdict
nbawinprob (Brier)end_q11592
delta -0.0084 CI [-0.016101811879082918, -0.0007999346168341686] MARKET_SHARPER_PROVISIONAL-0.0084
[-0.0161, -0.0008]MARKET SHARPER
nbawinprob (Brier)halftime1593
delta -0.004 CI [-0.009833149837413686, 0.0015363951420276217] UNDERPOWERED-0.0040
[-0.0098, +0.0015]UNDERPOWERED
nbawinprob (Brier)end_q31593
delta 0.0011 CI [-0.0027845115004708075, 0.005201263747489016] UNDERPOWERED+0.0011
[-0.0028, +0.0052]UNDERPOWERED
nbawinprob (Brier)q4_under51593
delta 0.0019 CI [-0.00098643160153798, 0.004781044260357816] UNDERPOWERED+0.0019
[-0.0010, +0.0048]UNDERPOWERED
mlb_ingameCRPShome_margin|end_inning_320
delta 0.4499 CI [-0.020569384058188415, 1.0687464621667424] UNDERPOWERED+0.4499
[-0.0206, +1.0687]UNDERPOWERED
mlb_ingameCRPShome_margin|end_inning_526
delta 0.8555 CI [0.32594001284687374, 1.488773471523803] UNDERPOWERED+0.8555
[+0.3259, +1.4888]UNDERPOWERED
mlb_ingameCRPShome_margin|end_inning_622
delta 0.9583 CI [0.2408788621981401, 1.8046151457494153] UNDERPOWERED+0.9583
[+0.2409, +1.8046]UNDERPOWERED
mlb_ingameCRPShome_margin|end_inning_721
delta 1.066 CI [0.2656424426666572, 1.9601757169298957] UNDERPOWERED+1.0660
[+0.2656, +1.9602]UNDERPOWERED
mlb_ingameCRPShome_margin|end_inning_821
delta 1.794 CI [0.8720949949082061, 3.0589789365143907] UNDERPOWERED+1.7940
[+0.8721, +3.0590]UNDERPOWERED
mlb_ingameCRPStotal_runs|end_inning_349
delta 0.0891 CI [-0.3031783173062472, 0.5063543617299131] UNDERPOWERED+0.0891
[-0.3032, +0.5064]UNDERPOWERED
mlb_ingameCRPStotal_runs|end_inning_554
delta 0.2604 CI [-0.052614231788668975, 0.5751412231831872] UNDERPOWERED+0.2604
[-0.0526, +0.5751]UNDERPOWERED
mlb_ingameCRPStotal_runs|end_inning_654
delta 0.6392 CI [0.31739428723201235, 0.9632194949072426] MODEL_SHARPER_PROVISIONAL+0.6392
[+0.3174, +0.9632]MODEL SHARPER
mlb_ingameCRPStotal_runs|end_inning_755
delta 0.7327 CI [0.4130762214262852, 1.0809591352514807] MODEL_SHARPER_PROVISIONAL+0.7327
[+0.4131, +1.0810]MODEL SHARPER
mlb_ingameCRPStotal_runs|end_inning_849
delta 1.4201 CI [0.9658843906709079, 1.8976610619874428] MODEL_SHARPER_PROVISIONAL+1.4201
[+0.9659, +1.8977]MODEL SHARPER
mlb_pregameCRPS (total_runs)pregame300
delta -0.0523 CI [-0.1657, 0.0482] UNDERPOWERED-0.0523
[-0.1657, +0.0482]UNDERPOWERED
soccer_intlwinprob (Brier)home_win_prob|minute_6022
delta -0.0931 CI [-0.15696017645448831, -0.03359206672737812] UNDERPOWERED-0.0931
[-0.1570, -0.0336]UNDERPOWERED
soccer_intlwinprob (Brier)home_win_prob|minute_7517
delta -0.1075 CI [-0.1885062749116145, -0.03163929014699815] UNDERPOWERED-0.1075
[-0.1885, -0.0316]UNDERPOWERED
17 rows total. Losses and underpowered rows are shown, not filtered.open the full receipts ledger ->

nulls (351) outnumber confirms (168) 2.1x -- we publish our nulls

168
confirmed signals
351
null results
740
not testable
2.1x
nulls per confirm

Two ways in

spine 1 -- browse -- 7 packs

Entity Atlas

Descriptive cards across NBA, MLB, tennis, and soccer. Every card carries its sample floor and as-of date.

1,549
enter the atlas ->
spine 2 -- interrogate

Evidence Explorer

Claim pages, each with its strongest receipt and a reproduce-on-a-fresh-clone block. Includes the retraction story: headline numbers this system refuted about itself.

23
read the evidence ->

Research labs

Counterfactual Explorer

Pick a game-state cell -- score margin x time -- and see the model forecast there next to the market and the realized outcome. Reads committed cells; runs no new simulation.

state_conditioned_calibration -- open lab ->

Market-Microstructure Lab

Outcome-free forecast-property instruments: information-arrival curves, model-market convergence, residual autocorrelation. Labelled STANDARD_INSTRUMENT.

edge_claimed: false -- open lab ->
What you will not find here. No ROI, profit, or betting-edge claim. This is a calibrated predictor measured against the devigged close, not a track record. Several early headline numbers were retracted after this project's own instruments refuted them -- that story is a feature, on the retraction page, not a footnote.
live appgamesrecordspaper tradingsystemhow it worksmethodology
Built by Neel Shah. Every figure traces to a committed JSON under scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/. Reproduce the whole set with python scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/check_all.py (52/52 on a bare clone). Truth source: docs/JOB_EVIDENCE_PACKET.md.