PAPER DESK -- PAPER ONLY, simulated maker quotes on the recorded Kalshi tape; not a verdict
Paper desk record
export 2026-10-22, generated 2026-10-23T19:43:59Z; 2 refusal(s)
Three dates frame this record. Capture history starts 2026-09-24, the first night in the fill-realism table. The first ledger night with paper fills is 2026-10-03. The prospective forward paper series, with schedules written before the games, runs from 2026-10-06 (evidence packet section 5). No calibration verdict yet, for or against the model.
Status
as of 2026-10-22
- Last scored night
- 2026-10-22 COMPLETE (all steps ran)as of 2026-10-22
- Nights scored / days in window
- 19 of 25 days (5 COMPLETE, 14 PARTIAL); 17 days scheduled; window 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-18as of 2026-10-20
- Scored-night share (host uptime)
- 76.0 pct of days, window 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-18as of 2026-10-20
- Capture heartbeat (books root)
- ran (due) at 2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z, 17 min before the export was generatedas of 2026-10-23
In-game scoreboard, one row per sport and arm
as of 2026-10-22
- nba: 1 of 30 games needed for a verdict; no verdict yet
- ncaaf: 0 of 30 games needed for a verdict; no verdict yet
Rows with target=mid that print Brier 0.0000 are arm A scored against its own mid price: zero by construction, a plumbing check, not a result.
show the full cell grid (96 cells)
Sealed pre-registration PREREG_2026-10-07. Each cell is one sport, segment, target and arm, scored on Brier and log loss; arm A is the venue YES mid (the reference), not a devigged price. A cell reads INSUFFICIENT until it holds 30 games. This export: 3 games, 724 ticks, 96 cells. Lower loss is better.
| sport | arm | cells | cells with ticks | most games in a cell | verdicts | detail | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nba | A | 8 | 3 | 1 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| nba | B_lag | 8 | 3 | 1 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
|
show 10 empty arms
| sport | arm | cells | cells with ticks | most games in a cell | verdicts | detail | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nba | B | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| nba | C | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| nba | D | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| nba | C_minus_B | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ncaaf | A | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ncaaf | B | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ncaaf | C | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ncaaf | D | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ncaaf | B_lag | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ncaaf | C_minus_B | 8 | 0 | 0 of 30 | INSUFFICIENT 8 | show 8 cells
|
- arm A:
- the venue mid at the tick, untouched (the reference every other arm is scored against)
- arm B:
- walk-forward fit on mid-only features over the state-complete population
- arm B_lag:
- the previous receipt's mid (a staleness control)
- arm C:
- walk-forward fit on the mid plus the sport's game-state features, same population as B
- arm D:
- C restricted to ticks where the pregame model is present; unavailable until a prior model row exists
Coverage per sport
as of 2026-10-22
| sport | listed | selected | served | qualified PASS / FAIL | scored ticks (arm A) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 / 0 | 0 |
| nba | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 1 | 724 |
| ncaaf | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 / 3 | 0 |
| nfl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 / 0 | 0 |
| soccer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 / 0 | 0 |
census schedule-feed games starting on D (games_seen - outside_utc_date); the inputs carry no count of venue-listed game events
Qualification census: why no game qualifies
as of 2026-10-20
Why 0 of 113 served games qualify (2026-10-06 to 2026-10-16). Qualification grades the captured tape, not the model.
- never judged: 79 games -- three qualification steps were killed before writing a receipt (45 games), the 10-10 receipt was refused undeclared_sport (26) and night 10-15 never ran (8).
- no capture: 11 games -- the laptop was asleep, so the game has no tape to grade.
- gateCOVERAGE_LOW: 23 games -- every game with live capture covered under the 90 pct floor; the best reached 80.5 pct.
Gate ledger statuses, not packet verdicts: COVERAGE_LOW = too little coverage.
79 + 11 + 23 = 113; PASS 0. QUALIFICATION_CENSUS_2026-10-20.mdas of 2026-10-20descriptive_only
Ledger per night (counts only)
as of 2026-10-22
| night | quote life s | fills | settled | unsettled | contracts | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 5.00 | paper result, not a verdict |
| 2026-10-04 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | paper result, not a verdict |
| 2026-10-05 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11.01 | paper result, not a verdict |
| 2026-10-08 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 9.23 | paper result, not a verdict |
The fills themselves are on the paper record.
Refusals in this export
as of 2026-10-22
A refusal is a tick, game or section the scorer declined to use, with the receipt's reason code. Refused rows are counted, never dropped silently.
| stage | reason code | count |
|---|---|---|
| scoreboard | future_records | 6082 |
| scoreboard | model_not_reconstructible:B | 724 |
| scoreboard | model_not_reconstructible:C | 724 |
| scoreboard | model_not_reconstructible:D | 724 |
| scoreboard | model_state_refused | 477 |
| scoreboard | served_games | 3 |
| scoreboard | tick_refused:invalid_decimal | 56 |
| scoreboard | training_duplicate | 0 |
| scoreboard | unsettled_games | 3 |
not available: ingame: docs/evidence/forward/live_shadow/2026-10-22.json missing or unreadablenot available: execution.markouts: docs/evidence/forward/markouts/ holds no receipt
Night receipts on GitHub
as of 2026-10-22
- nights/2026-10-22.json COMPLETE
- nights/2026-10-21.json COMPLETE
- nights/2026-10-20.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-19.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-16.json COMPLETE
- nights/2026-10-14.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-13.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-12.json COMPLETE
- nights/2026-10-10.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-09.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-08.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-07.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-06.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-05.json COMPLETE
- nights/2026-10-04.json COMPLETE
- nights/2026-10-03.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-10-02.json COMPLETE
- nights/2026-10-01.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-09-30.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-09-29.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-09-26.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-09-25.json PARTIAL
- nights/2026-09-24.json PARTIAL