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Read-only snapshot: model data as of 2026-07-16; paper desk record through 2026-10-22. No live data; paper units only.
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PAPER DESK -- PAPER ONLY, simulated maker quotes on the recorded Kalshi tape; not a verdict

Desk health

export 2026-10-22, generated 2026-10-23T19:43:59Z; 2 refusal(s)

Three dates frame this record. Capture history starts 2026-09-24, the first night in the fill-realism table. The first ledger night with paper fills is 2026-10-03. The prospective forward paper series, with schedules written before the games, runs from 2026-10-06 (evidence packet section 5). No calibration verdict yet, for or against the model.

Capture supervisors: last heartbeat

as of 2026-10-23

PAPER ONLY: these heartbeats are the paper desk's recorders and scorer; no live orders are placed.

processdecisionreasonat (UTC)minutes before the export
capture:bookscapture_presentsupervisor_found2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z17
capture:polymarketcapture_presentsupervisor_found2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z17
capture:state2capture_presentsupervisor_found2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z17
heartbeat:books_rootrandue2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z17
heartbeat:state_rootrandue2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z17

Live shadow recorder: no heartbeat in this export, because docs/evidence/forward/live_shadow/2026-10-22.json missing or unreadable.

Host uptime per day

as of 2026-10-20

Window 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-18 (25 days): 19 scored nights (5 COMPLETE, 14 PARTIAL), 76.0 pct of days; 6 days with no night receipt. A missed night is absent from the record, never filtered out after the fact.

datescheduledgames servednight receiptpartial reasons
2026-09-24yes4PARTIALceiling_exceeded
2026-09-25yes3PARTIALfree_ram_below_floor
2026-09-26yes6PARTIALfree_ram_below_floor
2026-09-27no0none-
2026-09-28no0none-
2026-09-29yes3PARTIALchild_nonzero_exit
2026-09-30yes3PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
2026-10-01yes2PARTIALfree_ram_below_floor, step_deadline_exceeded
2026-10-02yes2COMPLETE-
2026-10-03yes3PARTIALchild_nonzero_exit, free_ram_below_floor
2026-10-04yes5COMPLETE-
2026-10-05yes1COMPLETE-
2026-10-06yes3PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
2026-10-07yes7PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
2026-10-08yes19PARTIALceiling_exceeded, step_deadline_exceeded
2026-10-09yes19PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
2026-10-10yes26PARTIALchild_nonzero_exit
2026-10-11no0none-
2026-10-12yes7COMPLETE-
2026-10-13yes9PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
2026-10-14no0PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
2026-10-15no0none-
2026-10-16no0COMPLETE-
2026-10-17no0none-
2026-10-18no0none-

Module self-checks (check_all)

as of 2026-10-20

97 of 111 module self-checks PASS; 14 have no self-check; 0 FAIL/other (check_all_report.json as of 2026-10-20).

Open issues

as of 2026-10-24

44 open of 208 issues in the newest daily ledger docs/evidence/forward/issues/2026-10-24.md.

In the desk export (2026-10-22): 44 open of 197; open by severity P1 32, P2 12; open by kind night_partial 14, scan_input_unreadable 6, schedule_missing 3, step_killed 15, step_refusal_key 6.

Nights and their steps

as of 2026-10-22
nightstatusreasonssteps (status / exit / wall s / peak MB)
2026-10-22COMPLETE-
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 302 / 456
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 166 / 329
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 20
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 23 / 167
  • history: RAN / 0 / 56 / 151
  • e: RAN / 0 / 173 / 184
2026-10-21COMPLETE-
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 91 / 395
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 102 / 405
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 20
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 19 / 173
  • history: RAN / 0 / 29 / 139
  • e: RAN / 0 / 394 / 241
2026-10-20PARTIALchild_nonzero_exit
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 457 / 469
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 521 / 452
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 20
  • scoreboard: RAN / 1 / 2 / 91 (child_nonzero_exit)
  • history: RAN / 0 / 60 / 135
  • e: RAN / 2 / 1 / 76 (child_nonzero_exit)
2026-10-19PARTIALchild_nonzero_exit
  • qualification: RAN / 3 / 806 / 31 (child_nonzero_exit)
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 321 / 220
  • week: RAN / 3 / 2 / 20
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 66 / 151
  • history: RAN / 0 / 782 / 123
  • e: RAN / 0 / 1208 / 241
2026-10-16COMPLETE-
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 273 / 428
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 233 / 352
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 26 / 136
  • history: RAN / 0 / 164 / 149
  • e: RAN / 0 / 773 / 312
2026-10-14PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 206 / 555
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 102 / 319
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: KILLED / 15 / 900 / 369 (step_deadline_exceeded)
  • history: RAN / 0 / 6 / 113
  • e: RAN / 0 / 571 / 247
2026-10-13PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 358 / 474
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 225 / 344
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: KILLED / 15 / 901 / 343 (step_deadline_exceeded)
  • history: RAN / 0 / 34 / 133
  • e: RAN / 0 / 1184 / 336
2026-10-12COMPLETE-
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 546 / 567
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 205 / 367
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 65 / 203
  • history: RAN / 0 / 82 / 194
  • e: RAN / 0 / 1639 / 375
2026-10-10PARTIALchild_nonzero_exit
  • qualification: RAN / 3 / 1 / 28 (child_nonzero_exit)
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 74 / 223
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 20
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 9 / 130
  • history: RAN / 0 / 75 / 189
  • e: RAN / 0 / 1554 / 402
2026-10-09PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
  • qualification: KILLED / 15 / 903 / 31 (step_deadline_exceeded)
  • fill_realism: KILLED / 15 / 1200 / 318 (step_deadline_exceeded)
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 20
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 659 / 338
  • history: RAN / 0 / 86 / 137
  • e: KILLED / 15 / 1800 / 445 (step_deadline_exceeded)
2026-10-08PARTIALceiling_exceeded, step_deadline_exceeded
  • qualification: KILLED / 15 / 829 / 1524 (ceiling_exceeded)
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 644 / 997
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 579 / 284
  • history: RAN / 0 / 19 / 109
  • e: KILLED / 15 / 1800 / 430 (step_deadline_exceeded)
2026-10-07PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
  • qualification: KILLED / 15 / 901 / 517 (step_deadline_exceeded)
  • fill_realism: KILLED / 15 / 1200 / 389 (step_deadline_exceeded)
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 101 / 202
  • history: RAN / 0 / 150 / 151
  • e: KILLED / 15 / 1801 / 411 (step_deadline_exceeded)
2026-10-06PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 559 / 405
  • fill_realism: KILLED / 15 / 1200 / 441 (step_deadline_exceeded)
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 208 / 195
  • history: RAN / 0 / 68 / 148
  • e: KILLED / 15 / 1800 / 347 (step_deadline_exceeded)
2026-10-05COMPLETE-
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 89 / 201
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 397 / 437
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 111 / 190
  • history: RAN / 0 / 57 / 149
  • e: RAN / 0 / 1120 / 268
2026-10-04COMPLETE-
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 29 / 93
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 85 / 97
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 15 / 132
  • history: RAN / 0 / 66 / 149
  • e: RAN / 0 / 978 / 219
2026-10-03PARTIALchild_nonzero_exit, free_ram_below_floor
  • qualification: RAN / 3 / 158 / 205 (child_nonzero_exit)
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 265 / 355
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 52 / 148
  • history: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • e: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
2026-10-02COMPLETE-
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 164 / 127
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 28 / 49
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 3 / 96
  • history: RAN / 0 / 20 / 115
  • e: RAN / 0 / 454 / 171
2026-10-01PARTIALfree_ram_below_floor, step_deadline_exceeded
  • qualification: KILLED / 15 / 903 / 97 (step_deadline_exceeded)
  • fill_realism: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • week: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • scoreboard: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • history: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • e: KILLED / 15 / 1803 / 134 (step_deadline_exceeded)
2026-09-30PARTIALstep_deadline_exceeded
  • qualification: KILLED / 15 / 900 / 411 (step_deadline_exceeded)
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 489 / 345
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 109 / 189
  • history: RAN / 0 / 50 / 131
  • e: RAN / 0 / 395 / 163
2026-09-29PARTIALchild_nonzero_exit
  • qualification: RAN / 0 / 514 / 483
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 511 / 254
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 19
  • scoreboard: RAN / 1 / 2 / 77 (child_nonzero_exit)
  • history: RAN / 0 / 59 / 131
  • e: RAN / 0 / 26 / 106
2026-09-26PARTIALfree_ram_below_floor
  • qualification: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • fill_realism: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • week: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • scoreboard: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • history: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • e: RAN / 0 / 12 / 97
2026-09-25PARTIALfree_ram_below_floor
  • qualification: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • fill_realism: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • week: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
  • scoreboard: REFUSED / - / 0 / - (free_ram_below_floor)
2026-09-24PARTIALceiling_exceeded
  • qualification: KILLED / 15 / 24 / 1563 (ceiling_exceeded)
  • fill_realism: RAN / 0 / 273 / 212
  • week: RAN / 3 / 1 / 20
  • scoreboard: RAN / 0 / 14 / 137

Desk status (captures, tick, schedule, night)

as of 2026-10-23
keydecisionreasonsubjectat (UTC)
capture:bookscapture_presentsupervisor_found-2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z
capture:polymarketcapture_presentsupervisor_found-2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z
capture:state2capture_presentsupervisor_found-2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z
censuscensus_not_dueobservation_window_open2026-10-222026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z
heartbeat:books_rootrandue-2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z
heartbeat:state_rootrandue-2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z
locklock_acquiredlock_acquired-2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z
nightnight_skippedexists_one_attempt_or_not_due2026-10-222026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z
night_attentionnight_skipped_no_scheduleserved_schedule_absent2026-10-182026-10-21T00:26:31.257898Z
scheduleschedule_existsfive_artifacts_and_pointer_verified2026-10-242026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z
ticktick_okcomplete-2026-10-23T19:26:31.055852Z

Sources read by this export

as of 2026-10-23
pathsha256mtime UTC
data/cache/paper_desk/issues/state.jsonfb45415040dbbd932026-10-23T19:40:47Z
data/cache/paper_desk/status.json8b286f9ff3c969f52026-10-23T19:26:32Z
docs/evidence/CANONICAL_FIGURES.jsonc5e7e557caaaf73c2026-10-21T03:49:00Z
docs/evidence/forward/coverage/2026-10-22.json3ca168d853bf309b2026-10-23T19:42:03Z
docs/evidence/forward/exec_quality/2026-09-27_2026-09-29.json91d0b5f1e26cfa6c2026-09-30T02:30:25Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-09-24.json2690cc27e4a2f8d62026-09-28T15:12:51Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-09-29.jsone99819fc801ce7e32026-09-30T15:44:45Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-09-30.jsonabb8e9131bba0a872026-10-01T17:08:23Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-02.jsonc5f1fdf203b25f8c2026-10-03T06:29:44Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-03.jsond4226ab75501b7322026-10-05T15:03:40Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-04.json52a65f205ab3420b2026-10-05T15:35:37Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-05.json053ddb9b5bcfb1e22026-10-06T06:34:39Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-08.json6346b12029755da82026-10-09T14:01:17Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-10.json0fa3f9a5e14031722026-10-12T15:30:29Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-12.json8b0f515acc26dcf32026-10-13T20:24:42Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-13.json0e61b05971f331cd2026-10-14T18:06:30Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-14.json26a73ad36f9314b42026-10-15T16:31:40Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-16.jsona8f87f14c5379b9c2026-10-19T16:08:23Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-19.json4d4abf6ab7bc10812026-10-20T15:56:35Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-20.json246a68c0e6047fb32026-10-22T15:10:10Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-21.json8274b98dc26a0b702026-10-22T15:29:48Z
docs/evidence/forward/fill_realism/2026-10-22.json955804d796bcbf642026-10-23T15:50:05Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-03.jsonl5eda38b993863e312026-10-06T01:49:44Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-04.jsonlc91ddcbf72b9184d2026-10-06T01:50:41Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-05.jsonlaf5f7034b8f08d962026-10-06T08:57:14Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-06.jsonl1c46c1c559d60c1c2026-10-09T13:36:34Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-06.pairs.jsonl41342dfc9a017f002026-10-09T13:36:34Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-08.jsonl4c46c206fd32d7a72026-10-09T20:11:29Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-12.jsonlcb20a8323ae8c3852026-10-15T15:46:07Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-12.pairs.jsonl413d4da7e93318402026-10-15T15:46:07Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-13.jsonl0ce0d36c52694c882026-10-19T15:22:37Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-13.pairs.jsonl8bdfae1f96146f5f2026-10-19T15:22:37Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-19.jsonl1845e977ca7118ec2026-10-20T14:46:02Z
docs/evidence/forward/fills/2026-10-19.pairs.jsonle3b0c44298fc1c142026-10-20T14:46:02Z
docs/evidence/forward/latency/2026-10-21_2026-10-21_latency_ledger.json87715f057f05e3fd2026-10-23T19:42:19Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-09-24.json89010ca0ecc5af122026-09-28T15:13:06Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-09-25.jsonfec12c74bd26f0442026-09-28T15:13:56Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-09-26.jsonab9d880e213585912026-09-29T13:58:23Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-09-29.json5df0442222c30efc2026-09-30T15:46:12Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-09-30.json9877ebb3db716c3a2026-10-01T17:17:39Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-01.json16404d37570403272026-10-02T14:21:54Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-02.json3fdf437e69c542c02026-10-03T06:37:42Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-03.json85820698c533982d2026-10-05T15:04:32Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-04.jsonc664922088c6f1962026-10-05T15:53:17Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-05.json3a8229cf87f0669b2026-10-06T06:56:07Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-06.json487b7f03436f4a932026-10-07T18:25:31Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-07.json088e0eff2322d4c02026-10-08T15:45:10Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-08.jsone03b4dc00d55e2972026-10-09T14:41:16Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-09.jsonbafaa974b124680c2026-10-12T15:02:04Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-10.json50026b88755698572026-10-12T15:57:48Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-12.jsona6f669c55f53f7e82026-10-13T20:54:30Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-13.json92068a8dcd52a0d62026-10-14T18:41:50Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-14.jsoncca32a54ed1bcdcb2026-10-15T16:56:47Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-16.jsonb50938410af7868c2026-10-19T16:32:57Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-19.json18ed371779997d452026-10-20T16:30:53Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-20.jsonf94e3bffde3d3df62026-10-22T15:11:13Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-21.jsonb37fd6a0facd03f22026-10-22T15:37:09Z
docs/evidence/forward/nights/2026-10-22.jsonc90b10c0576635572026-10-23T15:54:16Z
docs/evidence/forward/paper_result/2026-10-03.json60e2c339c719fb342026-10-06T01:49:45Z
docs/evidence/forward/paper_result/2026-10-04.json65e8541fd5d5876b2026-10-06T01:50:41Z
docs/evidence/forward/paper_result/2026-10-05.json6e52af93239b2c5e2026-10-06T08:57:15Z
docs/evidence/forward/paper_result/2026-10-08.jsonee740e6f5061628b2026-10-09T20:11:36Z
docs/evidence/forward/paper_result/LEDGER.jsonl5f9ac4ee7a4cadfb2026-10-09T20:11:36Z
docs/evidence/forward/scoreboard/2026-10-22.json0dc245cb2d82f47a2026-10-23T15:50:27Z