PAPER DESK -- PAPER ONLY, simulated maker quotes on the recorded Kalshi tape; not a verdict
How in-game works
export 2026-10-22, generated 2026-10-23T19:43:59Z; 2 refusal(s)
Three dates frame this record. Capture history starts 2026-09-24, the first night in the fill-realism table. The first ledger night with paper fills is 2026-10-03. The prospective forward paper series, with schedules written before the games, runs from 2026-10-06 (evidence packet section 5). No calibration verdict yet, for or against the model.
Pipeline (one live paper quote, end to end)
- 1.
State capture ->
Two local recorders append the venue order book (Kalshi) and the game state feed to per-sport, per-UTC-day shards. Every row keeps its own receipt time, so later steps only see what was known at that instant.
- 2.
Per-sport fit ->
Once a day, offline, the scoreboard's validated history pair is fit into a frozen calibration per sport (nba, nfl, soccer, tennis). MLB has no daily fit; its in-game calibration is read from scoreboard arms B and C against the mid. Nothing is refit during a game.
- 3.
Arms ->
Each tick, for each in-window game, every arm turns the freshest book and state into a probability: the venue mid itself, the frozen B/C fits, an MLB blend of the frozen pregame mid with the live state, and an NBA logistic pricer. Stale books or state, a missing pregame mid, or a final game are counted refusals.
- 4.
Live paper quote ->
An arm that passes its checks writes a hypothetical one-contract maker quote intent per side (yes bid / no bid) with an expiry. No order is sent: there is no venue client and no network access on this path.
- 5.
Fill realism ->
After the day closes, each intent is replayed against the captured trade prints. A quote is credited only when prints during its life trade through its price, or deplete the modelled queue ahead of it; an unknown queue is never treated as depleted.
- 6.
Markout
For each credited paper fill, the later mid minus the fill price (fee netted) at fixed horizons, in probability points per contract. A markout is a microstructure diagnostic, clustered by game.