The analytics,
and the receipt
for every number.
A bottomless, honestly-measured look at basketball, baseball, soccer, and tennis. No edge claims — only calibrated findings you can check.
Scout answers only from precomputed, receipt-cited data. It never invents a number and says NO_DATA when it has none.
In plain terms: a mechanism verdict is one tested cause-and-effect claim; a null means we tested it and found nothing, and we keep those on purpose; a Brier score rates how calibrated a prediction is, where lower is better.
Four ways in
The calibrated prediction engine, walked forward and paired against the devigged close — calibration, never a dollar edge.
17 markets scored out-of-sample · 3 sportsThe self-improving AI, keeping score on itself: propose, gate, verdict, then graveyard or verified.
259 forward-tested families · 5 verdicts flippedBrowse every analytic. Importance-weighted so a growing catalog stays scannable, nulls at equal prominence.
74 analytics modulesAsk a plain question. Scout answers only from precomputed, receipt-cited data, and says NO_DATA when it has none.
precomputed · receipt-cited · no LLM at runtimeSix novel stats
See all six →soccer_intl completes half its pre-game line motion by 2.7h before tip; nba not until 4.8h. tennis, wnba move most of their line >6h before tip.
mlb stays contested later (LCF 0.833) than soccer_intl (LCF 0.748). (nba comeback-rate cross-check 0.0146)
Most one-star-fragile: DEN (Nikola Jokić, delta_winprob 0.5822). Two estimators name the same #1 player for 1/30 teams (directional cross-check, different seasons).
mlb: MFP rises from 0.06 to 0.24 over the game (mean 0.25); soccer_intl: MFP rises from 0.64 to 1.71 over the game (mean 0.92)
soccer_intl: overshoot 0.286 but model beats market only 22% of the time at max disagreement -> OHG 0.081 (a failure to harvest, not an edge); mlb: overshoot 0.072 but model beats market only 38% of the time at max disagreement -> OHG 0.009 (a failure to harvest, not an edge)
Most-taxed schedule: DEN 2025-26 (-0.38 pts/100 ORtg season-averaged); least: MEM 2025-26 (-0.27). League schedule-inequality range 0.11 pts/100 across 90 team-seasons.