TENNIS / Surface evidence

Surface-Prior Brier Delta

Keeps the published surface-specific versus surface-blind Brier comparison and its fold direction count together for each tour.

Derived analysis2 published rows8 fieldsDate varies or is unrecorded; see scope

Published measurements

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MeasurementPopulationOrder

2 matching rows; 2 contain surface minus blind brier.

CSV includes 2 matching rows, all fields, and source context; missing values stay blank.

Measured rows: 2 / 20 unavailable
Median: 0.001307Middle ranked value
Middle 50%: 0.000714 to 0.00189925th to 75th percentile
Observed range: 0.000121 to 0.002492Minimum to maximum

Summaries describe the filtered rows with equal row weight. Row counts are not independent game or event counts.

Measurement availability8 / 8 fields have values

Reference population: All published groups. 2 rows published.

Text search does not change this reference population.

Availability describes published values only. It does not establish data quality or independent game counts, and measurement windows can differ.

0Surface minus blind Brier0.002492

Showing 2 of 2 matching numeric rows. Open a row to inspect all its fields. Rankings apply only to the published subset.

01 / Interpretation

What this measures

Positive delta and a high fold share mean the surface-specific variant had larger recorded squared probability error in this receipt; they do not establish a general surface effect.

02 / Calculation

delta = pooled surface-specific Brier - pooled surface-blind Brier; fold share = higher-error folds / published folds

Use the table to inspect available fields and the source JSON to trace the formula inputs. CSV percentage values are stored as fractions.

03 / Population & limits

Two tour rows from the public in-game surface-context receipt; each preserves its joined-state count and published folds.

This is the source's rejected calibration comparison, not a player surface effect, match forecast, or market result. Brier differences are recorded for the stated held-out design only.

04 / Source & method references

Published source JSON Gneiting & Raftery (2007), Strictly Proper Scoring Rules

References explain ingredients and prior methods. They do not validate this derived analysis or establish its originality.