evidence / Self-refutation & honesty
Cross-Corpus Replication -- one corpus is an anecdote, two is a finding
The single truth-source for any figure is docs/JOB_EVIDENCE_PACKET.md. Every number on this page is copied verbatim from a committed artifact, cited inline. No $/edge/ROI claim appears here -- these are calibration/effect findings only, and an honest FAILED_REPLICATION is a success of the gate, not a shortfall.
strongest single receipt
Survival rate = share of TESTABLE hypotheses whose latest recorded verdict is CONFIRMED_LOCAL / CONFIRMED_LOCAL_incl_2026_OOS / REPLICATED. A NULL/REJECT is honest market-efficiency evidence, not a failure. No $/edge/ROI claim.
cited artifacts
| committed artifact |
|---|
| scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/mechanism_survival.json |
| scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/tennis_showcase.json |
no edge claimed
This site reports calibration and sharpness only, never a dollar edge, ROI, or bankroll result. An honest null is a success.