Demo -- read-only snapshot of the live system as of 2026-07-16T01:45:31Z; no live data, paper units only.
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nba/pregame_winprob

The ledger row, decomposed. Every figure below is read from a staged artifact on disk (cited per panel); this drill describes calibration and sharpness only -- no dollar edge, ROI, or bankroll is claimed.

model
0.1930 (Brier, std 0.0084)
market
no market baseline in artifact
delta (95% ci)
n/a
n
1473

verdict NO_MARKET_COMPARISON_IN_ARTIFACT -- source results/winprob_walk_forward_results.json

No Murphy decomposition or bootstrap-CI stability is staged for this surface on this clone. Only the mlb and soccer_intl in-game corpora carry one; this row is shown from the ledger figures above.