Findings / Lineup synergy
Greater than the sum of their parts: a lineup-synergy ledger
For every five-man lineup where all five members individually qualified for on/off (qualifies==True in the real stint cache), compare the lineup's observed net rating per 48 to an 'expected' net rating built by summing the five members' individual on/off contributions, then rank by the residual.
synergy_residual = net_per48 - expected_net_per48; positive means the five-man unit outperforms the sum of its individual parts, negative means it underperforms.
Greater than the sum of their parts: which five-man lineups beat what their individual on/off numbers predict -- the Grizzlies' Jackson-Morant-Bane-Edey-Wells five topped 2024-25 at +24.32 net per 48 above expected.
2024-25 -- n qualified (all 5 members individually qualified) = 102
Top synergy: outperformed their parts
on-court minutes range 101.6-940.0 across the 102 qualified lineups -- the low end is a small sample; do not over-read a ~100-minute lineup
| Rank | Five-man lineup | Min | Net per 48 | Expected | Synergy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells | 221.8 | +29.87 | +5.55 | +24.32 |
| 2 | Russell Westbrook, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokić, Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun | 128.4 | +27.3 | +6.62 | +20.67 |
| 3 | Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels | 114.1 | +26.08 | +5.8 | +20.29 |
| 4 | Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Luka Dončić, Dereck Lively II | 118.7 | +23.45 | +4.17 | +19.28 |
| 5 | Dennis Schröder, Dorian Finney-Smith, Nic Claxton, Cameron Johnson, Cam Thomas | 105.8 | +14.51 | -3.8 | +18.32 |
| 6 | Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid | 123 | +24.59 | +6.43 | +18.16 |
| 7 | Brook Lopez, Damian Lillard, Bobby Portis, Gary Trent Jr., AJ Green | 121.1 | +21 | +3.04 | +17.97 |
| 8 | LeBron James, Dorian Finney-Smith, Luka Dončić, Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves | 107.8 | +22.7 | +5.16 | +17.55 |
| 9 | DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Keon Ellis | 200.9 | +19.36 | +2.15 | +17.2 |
| 10 | Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Victor Wembanyama | 135.9 | +15.54 | -1.56 | +17.11 |
| 11 | Clint Capela, Trae Young, De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels | 104.5 | +15.62 | -0.8 | +16.42 |
| 12 | James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Derrick Jones Jr. | 192.7 | +24.16 | +8.39 | +15.77 |
| 13 | Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Collin Sexton, Walker Kessler, Keyonte George | 196.2 | +7.83 | -7.04 | +14.86 |
| 14 | Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Amen Thompson | 148.6 | +20.03 | +5.21 | +14.82 |
| 15 | Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle | 176.7 | +11.95 | -1.18 | +13.13 |
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
Bottom synergy: underperformed their parts
| Rank | Five-man lineup | Min | Net per 48 | Expected | Synergy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Deandre Ayton, Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara | 136.9 | -30.86 | -4.59 | -26.27 |
| 2 | Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington | 207.8 | -34.66 | -15.79 | -18.86 |
| 3 | D'Angelo Russell, Nic Claxton, Cameron Johnson, Ziaire Williams, Keon Johnson | 104.1 | -24.9 | -8.09 | -16.81 |
| 4 | Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo, Haywood Highsmith, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 119.7 | -17.24 | -1.17 | -16.07 |
| 5 | Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson | 323.2 | -9.51 | +5.23 | -14.74 |
| 6 | James Harden, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Derrick Jones Jr., Terance Mann | 169.1 | -9.65 | +5.01 | -14.66 |
| 7 | OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Precious Achiuwa | 123.5 | -11.27 | +3.16 | -14.43 |
| 8 | Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkić, Tyus Jones, Devin Booker | 119.3 | -18.11 | -4.06 | -14.05 |
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
Confounds / notes
- single season: only 2024-25 has this stint cache -- no cross-season replication is possible yet
- small minutes: the floor is roughly 100 on-court minutes for some lineups, which is noisy and wide-uncertainty -- do not over-read a ~100-minute lineup
- the 'expected' baseline itself rests on each member's on/off split, which is roster-confounded (teammates and role are bundled into it)
- descriptive association, not proof of causal chemistry
- opponent-raw: no opponent-strength adjustment
- Results describe qualified five-player lineup outcomes in the stated season.
Observation window
2024-25 -- single season from the local stint cache; ~100+ on-court-minute floor, noisy.