Findings
Lineup synergy: a five-man residual ledger
Small minutes, so read with care. Some five-man NBA lineups score above or below the sum of their players' individual ratings. The minutes behind each lineup are small, and the residual is not shown to persist.
How it was tested
- Gate: descriptive: lineup residual against summed individual ratings, minimum-minutes floor
- Corpora: NBA stints, 2024-25
- Folds: none
Replication
single corpus
Inspector
No inspector page for this finding.
For every five-man lineup where all five members individually qualified for on/off (qualifies==True in the real stint cache), compare the lineup's observed net rating per 48 to an 'expected' net rating built by summing the five members' individual on/off contributions, then rank by the residual.
synergy_residual = net_per48 - expected_net_per48; positive means the five-man unit scores above the sum of its individual parts, negative means it underperforms.
Greater than the sum of their parts: which five-man lineups score above what their individual on/off numbers predict -- the Grizzlies' Jackson-Morant-Bane-Edey-Wells five topped 2024-25 at +24.32 net per 48 above expected.
2024-25 -- n qualified (all 5 members individually qualified) = 102
Top synergy: scored above their parts
on-court minutes range 101.6-940.0 across the 102 qualified lineups -- the low end is a small sample; do not over-read a ~100-minute lineup
| Rank | Five-man lineup | Min | Net per 48 | Expected | Synergy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells | 221.8 | +29.87 | +5.55 | +24.32 |
| 2 | Russell Westbrook, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokić, Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun | 128.4 | +27.3 | +6.62 | +20.67 |
| 3 | Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels | 114.1 | +26.08 | +5.8 | +20.29 |
| 4 | Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Luka Dončić, Dereck Lively II | 118.7 | +23.45 | +4.17 | +19.28 |
| 5 | Dennis Schröder, Dorian Finney-Smith, Nic Claxton, Cameron Johnson, Cam Thomas | 105.8 | +14.51 | -3.8 | +18.32 |
| 6 | Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid | 123 | +24.59 | +6.43 | +18.16 |
| 7 | Brook Lopez, Damian Lillard, Bobby Portis, Gary Trent Jr., AJ Green | 121.1 | +21 | +3.04 | +17.97 |
| 8 | LeBron James, Dorian Finney-Smith, Luka Dončić, Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves | 107.8 | +22.7 | +5.16 | +17.55 |
| 9 | DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Keon Ellis | 200.9 | +19.36 | +2.15 | +17.2 |
| 10 | Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Victor Wembanyama | 135.9 | +15.54 | -1.56 | +17.11 |
| 11 | Clint Capela, Trae Young, De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels | 104.5 | +15.62 | -0.8 | +16.42 |
| 12 | James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Derrick Jones Jr. | 192.7 | +24.16 | +8.39 | +15.77 |
| 13 | Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Collin Sexton, Walker Kessler, Keyonte George | 196.2 | +7.83 | -7.04 | +14.86 |
| 14 | Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Amen Thompson | 148.6 | +20.03 | +5.21 | +14.82 |
| 15 | Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle | 176.7 | +11.95 | -1.18 | +13.13 |
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
Bottom synergy: underperformed their parts
| Rank | Five-man lineup | Min | Net per 48 | Expected | Synergy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Deandre Ayton, Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara | 136.9 | -30.86 | -4.59 | -26.27 |
| 2 | Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington | 207.8 | -34.66 | -15.79 | -18.86 |
| 3 | D'Angelo Russell, Nic Claxton, Cameron Johnson, Ziaire Williams, Keon Johnson | 104.1 | -24.9 | -8.09 | -16.81 |
| 4 | Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo, Haywood Highsmith, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 119.7 | -17.24 | -1.17 | -16.07 |
| 5 | Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson | 323.2 | -9.51 | +5.23 | -14.74 |
| 6 | James Harden, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Derrick Jones Jr., Terance Mann | 169.1 | -9.65 | +5.01 | -14.66 |
| 7 | OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Precious Achiuwa | 123.5 | -11.27 | +3.16 | -14.43 |
| 8 | Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkić, Tyus Jones, Devin Booker | 119.3 | -18.11 | -4.06 | -14.05 |
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
Confounds / notes
- single season: only 2024-25 has this stint cache -- no cross-season replication is possible yet
- small minutes: the floor is roughly 100 on-court minutes for some lineups, which is noisy and wide-uncertainty -- do not over-read a ~100-minute lineup
- the 'expected' baseline itself rests on each member's on/off split, which is roster-confounded (teammates and role are bundled into it)
- descriptive association, not proof of causal chemistry
- opponent-raw: no opponent-strength adjustment
- Results describe qualified five-player lineup outcomes in the stated season.
Observation window
2024-25 -- single season from the local stint cache; ~100+ on-court-minute floor, noisy.
Limitations
- Sample and independence: small minutes per lineup; possessions within a lineup are not independent.
- Scope: one NBA season, lineups above the floor only.
- Does not establish that a lineup's residual persists or is caused by the combination.
Verdict history
- : current: no packet verdict (descriptive exhibit)