Findings / MLB leaderboards
Descriptive MLB leaderboards, with the nulls attached
Descriptive MLB Statcast-derived leaderboards (catcher/umpire out-of-zone strike rate, platoon on-base splits) for a fixed 2022-2023 corpus slice, shown beside two honest nulls -- an unstable park-factor read and a REJECTed umpire-totals gate -- with no predictive or advantage claim anywhere.
Window: 2022-2023 Statcast slice (statcast_fuller_v1) — a fixed 2022-2023 Statcast slice, not the current season.
Catcher out-of-zone strike rate
Out-of-zone called/swung-strike rate -- a DESCRIPTIVE catcher stat, cruder than model-based framing; NOT a called-strike or framing rate, NOT predictive.
floor: n_ooz_called>=500 · n_qualified 113
Top 15
| Name | OOZ strike rate | n |
|---|---|---|
| René Pinto | 0.315 | 3,448 |
| Austin Barnes | 0.305 | 6,707 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.305 | 10,963 |
| Patrick Bailey | 0.304 | 5,657 |
| Roberto Pérez | 0.302 | 1,637 |
| Sandy León | 0.302 | 2,537 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | 0.299 | 11,281 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.299 | 14,504 |
| Curt Casali | 0.299 | 5,068 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.298 | 12,090 |
| Austin Wells | 0.298 | 1,276 |
| Manny Piña | 0.298 | 541 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.297 | 8,461 |
| Meibrys Viloria | 0.297 | 1,543 |
| Tom Murphy | 0.297 | 3,167 |
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
Bottom 15
| Name | OOZ strike rate | n |
|---|---|---|
| Logan O'Hoppe | 0.255 | 3,921 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.254 | 8,674 |
| Carlos Pérez | 0.253 | 2,234 |
| David Fry | 0.253 | 882 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.253 | 9,652 |
| Shea Langeliers | 0.252 | 9,839 |
| Brett Sullivan | 0.251 | 1,708 |
| Korey Lee | 0.250 | 2,159 |
| Riley Adams | 0.250 | 5,437 |
| P.J. Higgins | 0.250 | 1,946 |
| Elias Díaz | 0.250 | 14,540 |
| Robinson Chirinos | 0.246 | 3,989 |
| Carlos Pérez | 0.239 | 1,277 |
| Cooper Hummel | 0.218 | 914 |
| Drew Millas | 0.212 | 585 |
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
Platoon splits
Raw on-base-rate gap vs LHP minus vs RHP -- not park/quality adjusted, descriptive only.
floor: pa_vs_l>=50 and pa_vs_r>=50 · n_qualified 394
| Batter | vs LHP | vs RHP | Delta | PA (L/R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Garver | 0.453 | 0.300 | 0.152 | 148 / 413 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.427 | 0.276 | 0.151 | 286 / 613 |
| Cristian Pache | 0.315 | 0.191 | 0.124 | 146 / 209 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.358 | 0.243 | 0.116 | 134 / 272 |
| Sam Haggerty | 0.396 | 0.288 | 0.108 | 154 / 156 |
| William Contreras | 0.437 | 0.329 | 0.107 | 293 / 695 |
| Kevin Smith | 0.279 | 0.175 | 0.104 | 104 / 194 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 0.420 | 0.317 | 0.103 | 219 / 202 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.374 | 0.273 | 0.101 | 214 / 348 |
| Albert Pujols | 0.405 | 0.308 | 0.097 | 131 / 221 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.417 | 0.321 | 0.096 | 132 / 682 |
| José Caballero | 0.395 | 0.301 | 0.094 | 124 / 156 |
| Patrick Bailey | 0.345 | 0.254 | 0.091 | 113 / 240 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.345 | 0.254 | 0.090 | 119 / 405 |
| Harold Ramírez | 0.411 | 0.322 | 0.088 | 246 / 624 |
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
Umpire out-of-zone strike rate
Out-of-zone called/swung-strike rate -- a DESCRIPTIVE umpire-zone stat, cruder than model-based framing; NOT a called-strike or framing rate, NOT predictive.
n_qualified 102
Top 15
| Name | OOZ strike rate | n |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Rosenberg | 0.314 | 506 |
| Bill Miller | 0.308 | 8,815 |
| Laz Diaz | 0.302 | 7,197 |
| Doug Eddings | 0.302 | 8,181 |
| Andy Fletcher | 0.300 | 8,328 |
| Lance Barrett | 0.299 | 8,184 |
| Gabe Morales | 0.299 | 8,409 |
| Jacob Metz | 0.299 | 1,735 |
| Marty Foster | 0.298 | 1,492 |
| Brian Walsh | 0.298 | 1,960 |
| Jerry Meals | 0.297 | 3,759 |
| CB Bucknor | 0.297 | 7,915 |
| Phil Cuzzi | 0.297 | 8,086 |
| Chris Conroy | 0.295 | 4,251 |
| Greg Gibson | 0.295 | 1,308 |
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
Bottom 15
| Name | OOZ strike rate | n |
|---|---|---|
| Jansen Visconti | 0.272 | 8,248 |
| Alan Porter | 0.271 | 8,451 |
| Adrian Johnson | 0.270 | 8,422 |
| Shane Livensparger | 0.270 | 8,920 |
| Paul Emmel | 0.270 | 5,062 |
| Jordan Baker | 0.270 | 8,319 |
| Nate Tomlinson | 0.269 | 7,223 |
| Tripp Gibson | 0.268 | 8,399 |
| Alex Tosi | 0.268 | 7,715 |
| John Bacon | 0.267 | 2,933 |
| Pat Hoberg | 0.266 | 8,269 |
| Mark Wegner | 0.263 | 6,755 |
| Carlos Torres | 0.260 | 8,472 |
| David Arrieta | 0.259 | 754 |
| Derek Thomas | 0.252 | 2,608 |
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
Park factor — the published null
asof_park.parquet's park_factor is mostly NaN in this corpus -- too unstable/sparse to publish as a ranking, so we report the null instead. 0 of 29 rows had a finite park factor (29 NaN). This is not published as a ranking — verdict: too unstable/sparse to publish as a ranking.
Umpire-totals gate — the sharp angle we tested and failed
Hypothesis
home-plate umpire out-of-zone strike-rate tendency (expanding, as-of within this gate) predicts game total runs beyond an internal league+park baseline
Why it failed
planted null (shuffled umpire assignment) shows an equal-or-larger RMSE improvement than the real assignment -- added-flexibility artifact, not umpire signal
N umpires
103
Fold RMSE deltas (real vs. planted-null assignment)
-0.000407, -0.001334, -0.000491
Reading
ump identity did not move game totals -- a REJECT, published honestly
Confounds
- OOZ strike rate is cruder than mixed-model framing and is NOT a called-strike/framing rate.
- 2022-2023 fixed window; not current-season.
- platoon delta is raw on-base rate difference, not park/quality adjusted.
- these are DESCRIPTIVE leaderboards; no predictive or advantage claim is made.
Descriptive only, from a fixed 2022-2023 window. The tables report observed Statcast splits rather than a forecast.