Kernel transfer: one honest cross-sport calibration axis
This table's only cross-sport-comparable number is the Murphy reliability component, for 2 of 4 sports where a market-side probability decomposition exists (mlb moneyline, soccer_intl moneyline). CRPS (mlb totals/margin), Brier-without-d...
How to read this figure
Reliability is a Brier component on a 0-to-1 probability scale where lower is better; CRPS and no-market rows are verdict text only and are never forced onto that reliability axis.
Continue with the data
Open the interactive inspector: Cross-sport comparabilityWhat it means
The kernel-transfer table composes Murphy reliability across NBA, MLB, soccer, and tennis, but only MLB and soccer have a market probability to decompose against. In both, the model's calibration component trails the market's. The gaps agree in sign but differ in magnitude by roughly 5.9x, which is suggestive rather than a proven pattern.
Caveats and confounds
n=2 sports is not enough to call this a general cross-sport pattern; it is a same-direction coincidence worth re-checking if a third sport gets a market-side decomposition, not a claim.