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Descriptive only — a measured pattern, no edge claimed.
Analytics module · as of 2026-07-25

Market Favorite Longshot

The betting market is well-calibrated: MLB moneyline is essentially efficient, tennis shows only a mild favorite-longshot bias.
confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
No committed chart for this module — the receipts below are the evidence.

Caveats & confounds

Method. Proportional devig of the two-way closing price -> implied probability; favorite = max(q, 1-q); bucketed by favorite implied probability, each bucket reports n, mean implied, realized favorite win-rate, the gap, and a 95% Wilson interval -- each row is one independent match/game.