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Descriptive only — a measured pattern, no edge claimed.
Analytics module · as of 2026-07-25 · data observed 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-17 (30 days, 175 daily files)

Pregame line movement concentrates in the final hour (NBA most of all)

pregame per-series consecutive-snapshot |devigged_prob| movement, bucketed by minutes-to-commence, from own scraped line_history
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confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Micro Absorption
Chart: Micro Absorption -- pregame per-series consecutive-snapshot |devigged_prob| movement, bucketed by minutes-to-commence, from own scraped line_history
scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/micro_absorption.json2026-07-25

What it means

Across our own scraped consensus prices, the market sits quiet most of the day and then repriices sharply as the game nears -- almost certainly lineup news, late scratches, and sharp money arriving close to start. In the NBA the per-snapshot price motion inside the last hour (0-1h mean_abs_move 0.00117) is about seventeen times the size of the early-window motion (6h+ mean_abs_move 7e-05).

Caveats & confounds

descriptive_only, edge_claimed false -- this is consecutive-snapshot movement from our own scraped line_history (min_moves_floor 20), a microstructure measurement, not a trading signal.

Method. pregame per-series consecutive-snapshot |devigged_prob| movement, bucketed by minutes-to-commence, from own scraped line_history