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Analytics module · as of · data observed 2026-06-19 to 2026-07-17 (28 days)

Does the market get sharper toward the close?

wnba: Brier sharpens toward the close -- T-6h=0.2454 -> close=0.2280 (delta=+0.0174, n_games=30). soccer_intl: Brier does NOT sharpen toward the close -- T-24h=0.1355 -> close=0.1374 (delta=-0.0019, n_games=13) (UNDERPOWERED).
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confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Micro Closing Decay
Chart: Micro Closing Decay -- wnba: Brier sharpens toward the close -- T-6h=0.2454 -> close=0.2280 (delta=+0.0174, n_games=30). soccer_intl: Brier does NOT sharpen toward the close -- T-24h=0.1355 -> close=0.1374 (delta=-0.0019, n_games=13) (UNDERPOWERED).
scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/micro_closing_decay.json

What it means

A sharper (lower) Brier at the close means the market is a better-calibrated forecaster the closer you get to tip -- consistent with fresh information arriving late. For international soccer the same test does not sharpen, but that read is underpowered (13 games) and provisional.

Caveats & confounds

Single capture window -- provisional, not durable; soccer_intl is flagged underpowered; NBA, MLB, tennis and club soccer are not_joinable here (line_history ids do not key to an on-disk outcome table). edge_claimed false.

Method. Consensus (median) devigged market P(home win) bucketed by hours-to-start into T-24h/T-6h/T-1h/close, scored Brier + log-loss vs the settled ESPN outcome; paired within-game close-vs-T-24h delta.

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Does the closing line get sharper than earlier lines?Does the soccer line sharpen toward the close too?Ask anything →