Does the market get sharper toward the close?
wnba: Brier sharpens toward the close -- T-6h=0.2454 -> close=0.2280 (delta=+0.0174, n_games=30). soccer_intl: Brier does NOT sharpen toward the close -- T-24h=0.1355 -> close=0.1374 (delta=-0.0019, n_games=13) (UNDERPOWERED).
How to read this figure
Each horizon bucket (T-24h, T-6h, T-1h, close) reports the Brier of the consensus devigged home-win probability scored against the settled result; lower is better and a downward step toward the close is the sharpening.
What it means
A sharper (lower) Brier at the close means the market is a better-calibrated forecaster the closer you get to tip -- consistent with fresh information arriving late. For international soccer the same test does not sharpen, but that read is underpowered (13 games) and provisional.
Caveats and confounds
Single capture window -- provisional, not durable; soccer_intl is flagged underpowered; NBA, MLB, tennis and club soccer are not_joinable here (line_history ids do not key to an on-disk outcome table). the descriptive-only flag.