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Read-only snapshot: model data as of 2026-07-16; paper desk record through 2026-10-22. No live data; paper units only.
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Browse › One methodology, one buildable sport: NBA's market is near-perfectly calibrated
Analytics module · Source as of 2026-07-18

One methodology, one buildable sport: NBA's market is near-perfectly calibrated

Same methodology, per-sport n honest. nba: market ECE=0.006 (n_games=1593), fav_gap=+0.005/dog_gap=-0.001 (favorite-longshot-consistent), comeback~0.015. Not buildable: mlb, soccer, tennis.

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confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Xsport Structure
Xsport Structure chart
scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/xsport_structure.jsonSource as of 2026-07-18n not published

How to read this figure

The table has one row per sport; a status of ok carries the metrics, while not_buildable carries the reason it could not be computed.

What it means

The same three-part check (calibration, favorite-vs-longshot bias, comeback rate) is run per sport. NBA passes: market ECE 0.0064, and favorites at 0.60-plus win 0.8997 of the time against a 0.8948 implied price, a gap of just +0.005. MLB, soccer and tennis lacked buckets meeting the n>=30 floor, so they are marked not_buildable rather than guessed.

Caveats and confounds

This is a single-sport result today (NBA only); MLB, soccer and tennis are not_buildable, and tennis has no reliability map at all.