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Findings

Findings / Verdict flips

When we changed our mind

5 claim families changed their verdict as more data arrived; here is each mind-change, in sequence.

Claim families
259
Verified
121
Null
99
Retracted
7

5 published examples changed verdict.

Steps are shown in source order; 142 runs have no recorded date.

NBA

Three in four fatigue

First NULL_LOCAL on n=4762 (player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26), then CONFIRMED_LOCAL on n=7222 (player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26).

  1. Run 1 -- NULL_LOCAL on player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26, n=4,762, -0.916 (run date not recorded)
  2. Run 2 -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL on player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26, n=7,222, -1.213 (run date not recorded)
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MLB

Reliever 3in3d fatigue

First NULL_LOCAL on n=9054 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025), then CONFIRMED_LOCAL on n=8927 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025).

  1. Run 1 -- NULL_LOCAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=9,054, 0.01839 (run date not recorded)
  2. Run 2 -- NULL_LOCAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=8,897, -0.03538 (run date not recorded)
  3. Run 3 -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=8,927, -0.04412 (run date not recorded)
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MLB

Reliever 3in3d fatigue combined

First PROVISIONAL on n=26878 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025), then NULL_LOCAL on n=26878 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025).

  1. Run 1 -- PROVISIONAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=26,878, effect not published (run date not recorded)
  2. Run 2 -- NULL_LOCAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=26,878, effect not published (run date not recorded)
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MLB

Staff dayafter fatigue chain

First NULL_LOCAL on n=2087 (savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount), then NULL_LOCAL on n=2078 (savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount).

  1. Run 1 -- NULL_LOCAL on savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount, n=2,087, 0.0789 (2026-07-10T08:23:40Z)
  2. Run 2 -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL on savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount, n=2,160, 0.3915 (2026-07-10T08:23:40Z)
  3. Run 3 -- NULL_LOCAL on savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount, n=2,078, 0.3266 (2026-07-10T08:23:40Z)
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Tennis

Break point conversion by set number

First NOT_TESTABLE on n=34145 (slam_points_2011_2015), then CONFIRMED_LOCAL on n=34145 (slam_points_2011_2015).

  1. Run 1 -- NOT_TESTABLE on slam_points_2011_2015, n=34,145, -0.017 (run date not recorded)
  2. Run 2 -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL on slam_points_2011_2015, n=34,145, -0.017 (run date not recorded)
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Retracted-claim latency

ClaimSportDays livedWhat killed it
Meta label divergence bucket Q1MLBundatedFAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=20, effect=0.45)
Meta label divergence bucket Q2MLBundatedFAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=19, effect=0.3158)
Meta label divergence bucket Q3MLBundatedFAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=19, effect=0.3158)
Meta label divergence bucket Q4MLBundatedFAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=18, effect=0.3333)
Milb debut freshness flagMLBundatedREJECT on corpus 'games_current_season_2026__savant_debut_proxy' (n=39, effect=0.000394)
Oaa trailing fielding quality babip conversionMLBundatedREJECT on corpus 'savant_playlevel__2025_2026' (n=55063, effect=None)
Substitution timing moderates shift replication big4 2015 16Soccer0FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'disjoint_competition_group' (n=1691, effect=0.01861)

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run_ts present on 145 of 287 history rows -- run_ts is present on only some rows; undated flips show sequence without dates.

Findings