Read-only snapshot: model data as of 2026-07-16; paper desk record through 2026-10-22. No live data; paper units only.
Findings
Findings
Verdict flips: when a claim changed status Several claim families changed verdict as more data arrived. Each change is listed in sequence from the forward-claim scoreboard, and the current status is the last entry.
How it was tested Gate: descriptive: verdict history per claim family ordered by run time Corpora: forward-claim scoreboard Folds: none Replication not applicable (a history of re-tests)
5 claim families changed their verdict as more data arrived; here is each mind-change, in sequence.
Claims that moved from NULL to CONFIRMED as samples grew were re-tested repeatedly and are not pre-registered unless a pre-registration file is shown.
5 published examples changed verdict.
Steps are shown in source order; 142 runs have no recorded date.
NBA Three in four fatigue First NULL_LOCAL on n=4762 (player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26), then CONFIRMED_LOCAL on n=7222 (player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26).
Run 1 -- NULL_LOCAL on player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26, n=4,762, -0.916 (run date not recorded)Run 2 -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL on player_boxscores_2024_25_2025_26, n=7,222, -1.213 (run date not recorded)View full ledger history Case anatomy -- receipt: case anatomy artifact Upstream scoreboard -- receipt: upstream scoreboard MLB Reliever 3in3d fatigue First NULL_LOCAL on n=9054 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025), then CONFIRMED_LOCAL on n=8927 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025).
Run 1 -- NULL_LOCAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=9,054, 0.01839 (run date not recorded)Run 2 -- NULL_LOCAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=8,897, -0.03538 (run date not recorded)Run 3 -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=8,927, -0.04412 (run date not recorded)View full ledger history Case anatomy -- receipt: case anatomy artifact Upstream scoreboard -- receipt: upstream scoreboard MLB Reliever 3in3d fatigue combined First PROVISIONAL on n=26878 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025), then NULL_LOCAL on n=26878 (bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025).
Run 1 -- PROVISIONAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=26,878, effect not published (run date not recorded)Run 2 -- NULL_LOCAL on bullpen_relief_chains+savant_full__2023-2025, n=26,878, effect not published (run date not recorded)View full ledger history Case anatomy -- receipt: case anatomy artifact Upstream scoreboard -- receipt: upstream scoreboard MLB Staff dayafter fatigue chain First NULL_LOCAL on n=2087 (savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount), then NULL_LOCAL on n=2078 (savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount).
Run 1 -- NULL_LOCAL on savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount, n=2,087, 0.0789 (2026-07-10T08:23:40Z )Run 2 -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL on savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount, n=2,160, 0.3915 (2026-07-10T08:23:40Z )Run 3 -- NULL_LOCAL on savant_full__2023-2025_team_day_pitchcount, n=2,078, 0.3266 (2026-07-10T08:23:40Z )View full ledger history Case anatomy -- receipt: case anatomy artifact Upstream scoreboard -- receipt: upstream scoreboard Tennis Break point conversion by set number First NOT_TESTABLE on n=34145 (slam_points_2011_2015), then CONFIRMED_LOCAL on n=34145 (slam_points_2011_2015).
Run 1 -- NOT_TESTABLE on slam_points_2011_2015, n=34,145, -0.017 (run date not recorded)Run 2 -- CONFIRMED_LOCAL on slam_points_2011_2015, n=34,145, -0.017 (run date not recorded)View full ledger history Case anatomy -- receipt: case anatomy artifact Upstream scoreboard -- receipt: upstream scoreboard Retracted-claim latency
Claim Sport Days lived What killed it Meta label divergence bucket Q1 MLB undated FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=20, effect=0.45) Meta label divergence bucket Q2 MLB undated FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=19, effect=0.3158) Meta label divergence bucket Q3 MLB undated FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=19, effect=0.3158) Meta label divergence bucket Q4 MLB undated FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'ingame_grade_joined_mlb_synthetic_checkpoints_disjoint' (n=18, effect=0.3333) Milb debut freshness flag MLB undated REJECT on corpus 'games_current_season_2026__savant_debut_proxy' (n=39, effect=0.000394) Oaa trailing fielding quality babip conversion MLB undated REJECT on corpus 'savant_playlevel__2025_2026' (n=55063, effect=None) Substitution timing moderates shift replication big4 2015 16 Soccer 0 FAILED_REPLICATION on corpus 'disjoint_competition_group' (n=1691, effect=0.01861)
Scroll horizontally for all columns.
run_ts present on 145 of 287 history rows -- run_ts is present on only some rows; undated flips show sequence without dates.
5 flips is a small, anecdotal set -- this is qualitative case study, not a rate. run_ts is missing on many history rows, so 'days-lived' is a lower bound and some flips are undated. a flip reflects more/re-cleaned data arriving, NOT that the earlier verdict was careless. -- receipt: descriptive_only
Limitations Sample and independence: families share corpora, so flips are not independent events. Scope: only history rows with a run timestamp can be dated. Does not establish which verdict is final; the current status is the last entry. Verdict history 2026-07-25 : current: no packet verdict (descriptive exhibit)Findings