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Analytics module · as of 2026-07-22

The model beats the market in 3 of 17 checkpoints -- all provisional

Model beats market only where verdict starts MODEL_SHARPER (still PROVISIONAL pending more data). Most rows are UNDERPOWERED (CI spans zero) or MARKET_SHARPER -- reported as-is.
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confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Cross Sport Scoreboard
Chart: Cross Sport Scoreboard -- Model beats market only where verdict starts MODEL_SHARPER (still PROVISIONAL pending more data). Most rows are UNDERPOWERED (CI spans zero) or MARKET_SHARPER -- reported as-is.
scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/cross_sport_scoreboard.json2026-07-22

What it means

One rating object is scored out-of-sample against the market across sports and game states. Most rows are UNDERPOWERED (their confidence interval spans zero) or favor the market. The only rows where the model is sharper are MLB total-runs forecasts from the 6th inning on -- plausibly because a late-game run-total is a countable, low-news quantity the sim handles well.

Caveats & confounds

Even the three winning rows rest on small samples (n=54, 55, 49) and are labeled PROVISIONAL; the NBA end_q1 winprob row shows the market sharper (paired_delta_mean -0.0084).

Method. composition only -- every number copied verbatim from its source artifact

Ask Scout about this
Is there anywhere the model out-sharpens the market at all?Does the in-game model beat the market's NBA win probability at the end of Q1?How does the model's pregame MLB run-total forecast compare to the market?Ask anything →