NBA
Static Brier 0.209; score-only Brier 0.172; combined Brier 0.159.
n=not published / observed 2026-07-23
Receipt: #arms/0The Forecaster
A calibrated engine, measured against itself.
Reading trail
Read first: Calibration reliability
Next: State reliability
Published calibration checks for pregame and in-game forecasts. The in-game comparison separates the recorded state contribution from the rating-prior contribution.
Published in-game calibration comparison
Out-of-sample in-game win-probability calibration, split into static, score-only, and combined arms.
Each result is read from one public artifact. Its original analysis paths are retained in that artifact as provenance text, not as reader links.
MLB
Static Brier 0.241; score-only Brier 0.128; combined Brier 0.126.
n=not published / observed 2026-07-23
Receipt: #arms/1Three-arm measurement
Published state-transition summary.
| Sport | Static | Score-only | Combined | Mechanical share | Model-prior share | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 0.209 | 0.172 | 0.159 | ~73% | -0.014 (~27%) | Receipt: #arms/0 |
| MLB | 0.241 | 0.128 | 0.126 | ~99% | -0.001 (~1%) | Receipt: #arms/1 |
As of 2026-07-23. Each displayed field links to the public artifact and its JSON field path.