Calibration / Residual anatomy
Separate recorded volume from per-row residual.
Each cell is a published time-bucket and probability-bucket segment from sports[sport].segments[]. Switch the cell measure, inspect its published fields, and compare the two rankings below each grid.
Absolute residual is not reducible miscalibration
A forecast near 50% can have a large absolute residual on an individual resolved outcome while still being calibrated across comparable forecasts. Total absolute residual mass also grows with the number of rows. These fields describe recorded residual volume and per-row residual; they do not establish a correctable calibration gap or its cause.
Use the calibration reliability view to compare forecasts with observed frequency across bins, and score decomposition to inspect the published Brier components.
Reading trail
Read first: Read observation dependence before interpreting residual rows with repeated observations.
Next question: How does the published Brier score separate into its recorded components?
Read the analysis: Where the forecast errors live (sources regenerated)
Forecasts grouped by game state
MLB
- n_records
- 27,351
- n_skipped
- 668
Sequential scale: 0 to 2,812.37 for Sum of absolute forecast errors; blank cells: no published segment.
| Time bucket | 0-.2 | .2-.4 | .4-.6 | .6-.8 | .8-1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| early(inn1-3) | |||||
| mid(inn4-6) | |||||
| late(inn7+) |
Recorded volume
- early(inn1-3), .4-.62,812.37
- early(inn1-3), .6-.81,204.96
- mid(inn4-6), .4-.61,183.15
Per-row absolute residual
- late(inn7+), .4-.60.4987
- early(inn1-3), .4-.60.4888
- mid(inn4-6), .4-.60.4794
Forecasts grouped by game state
International soccer
- n_records
- 4,265
- n_skipped
- 882
Sequential scale: 0 to 233.42 for Sum of absolute forecast errors; blank cells: no published segment.
| Time bucket | 0-.2 | .2-.4 | .4-.6 | .6-.8 | .8-1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15 | |||||
| 15-30 | |||||
| 30-45 | |||||
| 45-60 | |||||
| 60-75 | |||||
| 75-90+ |
Recorded volume
- 45-60, 0-.2233.42
- 75-90+, 0-.2191.95
- 60-75, 0-.2182.03
Per-row absolute residual
- 75-90+, .2-.40.7892
- 30-45, 0-.20.6338
- 60-75, .2-.40.6104
Source fields: residual_anatomy.json -> sports[sport].segments[] -> time_bucket, prob_bucket, n, mean_abs_residual, total_abs_residual_mass; sports[sport] -> n_records, n_skipped.
Excluded corpora: mlb_clean: byte-identical duplicate of mlb corpus -- excluded to avoid double counting