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Where the model's error backlog actually sits

The single largest slice of the model's cumulative error is early-inning coin-flip games -- MLB innings 1-3 at a .4-.6 model probability carries 6063.25 in total absolute residual mass (mean_abs_residual 0.4912 over 12,344 rows).
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confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Residual Anatomy
Chart: Residual Anatomy -- The single largest slice of the model's cumulative error is early-inning coin-flip games -- MLB innings 1-3 at a .4-.6 model probability carries 6063.25 in total absolute residual mass (mean_abs_residual 0.4912 over 12,344 rows).
scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/residual_anatomy.json

What it means

Ranking every sport x game-state x probability-band segment by total absolute error shows the improvement backlog is concentrated where little has happened and the outcome is genuinely uncertain -- early, near-50/50 states. That is where fixing the model would remove the most cumulative error.

Caveats & confounds

No significance test here; total residual mass scales with row count, so high-volume buckets rank high partly by size, not only by per-row error. edge_claimed false.