Skip to content

Calibration / Brier audit

Inspect the Brier reconstruction remainder.

This view separates the published reliability, resolution, and uncertainty components for each population, then shows the difference between each binned reconstruction and the published Brier score.

Reading trail

Read first: Read the calibration reliability view before assigning meaning to a Brier component.

Next question: Which published reliability components can be compared across sports?

Read the analysis: What carries across sports (sources regenerated)

PaperSupporting sourceWhat carries across sports (sources regenerated)Cross-sport | as_of 2026-09-16PaperSupporting sourceWhat the Brier score is made of (sources regenerated)Cross-sport | as_of 2026-09-16ModuleSupporting sourceMurphy DecompositionCross-sport | as_of 2026-09-16FindingSame source fileAre our probabilities honest?Cross-sport | as_of 2026-09-16FindingSame source fileMLB in-game join integrityMLB | as_of 2026-09-16
ReliabilityResolutionUncertainty
Binned Murphy components
Each group preserves a separate published model or market population. Resolution is shown as a component; the audit table keeps its subtraction explicit.
0.0000.1250.250MLB Model Reliability: 0.005619MLB Model Resolution: 0.087187MLB Model Uncertainty: 0.249895MLBModeln=27,351MLB Market Reliability: 0.003425MLB Market Resolution: 0.102062MLB Market Uncertainty: 0.249895MLBMarketn=27,351International soccer Model Reliability: 0.191982International soccer Model Resolution: 0.038714International soccer Model Uncertainty: 0.213485International soccerModeln=4,265International soccer Market Reliability: 0.088088International soccer Market Resolution: 0.071263International soccer Market Uncertainty: 0.213485International soccerMarketn=4,265
public/data/showcase/murphy_decomposition.jsonDate not published.MLB n rows=27,351; International soccer n rows=4,265
Published Brier reconstruction audit
SportSport n rowsPopulationPopulation nBrierReconstructed Brier (derived)Signed remainder (derived)
MLBn rows=27,351Modeln=27,3510.1667590.1683270.168327 - 0.166759 = 0.001568
MLBn rows=27,351Marketn=27,3510.1510080.1512580.151258 - 0.151008 = 0.000250
International soccern rows=4,265Modeln=4,2650.3325220.3667530.366753 - 0.332522 = 0.034231
International soccern rows=4,265Marketn=4,2650.1951570.2303100.230310 - 0.195157 = 0.035153

The reconstruction is computed from ten probability bins. A binned reconstruction can differ from the published Brier; this table reports that signed remainder without assigning a cause to it.

Source fields: murphy_decomposition.json -> sports[sport].n_rows; model_prob and market_prob: n, brier, reliability, resolution, uncertainty, reconstructed_brier. Reconstructed Brier and signed remainder are shown as derived values; remainder = reconstructed_brier - brier.