Findings / Reliability
The published reliability components need a closure check.
This exhibit reports the direct Brier score alongside the published ten-bin reconstruction for each source. It does not assign the model-to-reference score difference to recalibration or any other single cause.
The published ten-bin reconstruction does not close identically for every measured sport, so its components do not establish a cause for the model-to-reference Brier difference.
Each reconstructed Brier is the published reliability minus resolution plus uncertainty. The signed remainder is derived as direct Brier minus reconstructed Brier; it is shown to make the ten-bin closure check inspectable.
MLB
Published denominators: 27,351 rows; each source has its own n below.
| Source | Direct Brier | Reconstructed Brier | Remainder (derived) | n rows | n | Reliability vs resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 0.166759 | 0.168327 | -0.001568 | 27,351 | 27,351 | Reliability is smaller than resolution (0.005619 vs 0.087187). |
| Market | 0.151008 | 0.151258 | -0.000250 | 27,351 | 27,351 | Reliability is smaller than resolution (0.003425 vs 0.102062). |
A non-zero remainder means the published ten-bin identity does not close for this sport. The artifact alone does not identify why; binning, population differences, rounding, or another published-data limitation are possible.
International soccer
Published denominators: 4,265 rows; each source has its own n below.
| Source | Direct Brier | Reconstructed Brier | Remainder (derived) | n rows | n | Reliability vs resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 0.332522 | 0.366753 | -0.034231 | 4,265 | 4,265 | Reliability is larger than resolution (0.191982 vs 0.038714). |
| Market | 0.195157 | 0.230310 | -0.035153 | 4,265 | 4,265 | Reliability is larger than resolution (0.088088 vs 0.071263). |
A non-zero remainder means the published ten-bin identity does not close for this sport. The artifact alone does not identify why; binning, population differences, rounding, or another published-data limitation are possible.
Inspect the score decomposition and the calibration inspector for the related published views.