Measurement / Blowout timing
Lasting leads by threshold.
A threshold becomes permanent at the first recorded score tick from which the margin stays at or above that threshold through the last recorded score tick. This retrospective label is not predictable at the time. The artifact does not record whether that final tick is a complete final score.
How to read the panels
Incidence reports the count and fraction of eligible games in which each threshold became permanent. Conditional timing reports the published P25, median, and P75 clock values only for those games. A usable game has at least the published parseable-tick floor, not a verified complete score. The source's decided_clockfrac_* fields divide the decided clock by the final observed clock, not verified regulation time. Rows below the published sample floor retain their counts and mask reason; incidence bars, percentages, and clock quartiles are withheld.
Data integrity
This timing measurement is revision 2, rebuilt on the segment-clean corpus (2026-09-17). The stored corpus contains 178 MLB and 27 international soccer games. Individual measurements can use fewer games after eligibility checks; read their own denominators. Revision 1 values are withdrawn and kept in the timing regeneration receipt.
- blowout_dynamics
Reading trail
Read first: Read comeback rates by deficit and time remaining before treating a margin as permanent.
Next question: How do adjacent published score and clock states differ?
Read the analysis: When a lead lasts (sources regenerated)
MLB
Published eligibility: 178 raw games, 174 usable games with at least 10 parseable score ticks; each threshold needs 10 decided games for clock quartiles.
Incidence
Games in which this margin became permanent, out of the eligible games for each threshold.
Margin unit: runs | Clock field: inning
Conditional timing
P25, median, and P75 of the clock only among games where the threshold became permanent.
Margin unit: runs | Clock field: inning
Timing bars are scaled separately by sport. Innings and minutes are not combined.
Conditional support 130 / 174
- p25
- 3.50 inning
- median
- 5 inning
- p75
- 7 inning
Conditional support 97 / 174
- p25
- 4 inning
- median
- 6 inning
- p75
- 7.50 inning
Conditional support 74 / 174
- p25
- 4.13 inning
- median
- 6.50 inning
- p75
- 7.50 inning
Conditional support 55 / 174
- p25
- 4 inning
- median
- 6 inning
- p75
- 7.50 inning
International soccer
Published eligibility: 27 raw games, 26 usable games with at least 10 parseable score ticks; each threshold needs 10 decided games for clock quartiles.
Incidence
Games in which this margin became permanent, out of the eligible games for each threshold.
Margin unit: goals | Clock field: minute
Conditional timing
P25, median, and P75 of the clock only among games where the threshold became permanent.
Margin unit: goals | Clock field: minute
Timing bars are scaled separately by sport. Innings and minutes are not combined.
Conditional support 12 / 26
- p25
- 21.25 minute
- median
- 37 minute
- p75
- 53.50 minute
Conditional support 3 / 26
- p25
- Not published
- median
- Not published
- p75
- Not published
Below the published minimum of 10 decided games.
Conditional support 0 / 26
- p25
- Not published
- median
- Not published
- p75
- Not published
Below the published minimum of 10 decided games.
Source fields: public/data/showcase/blowout_dynamics.json -> sports.<sport>.unit, sports.<sport>.clock_field, sports.<sport>.n_games_raw, sports.<sport>.n_games_usable, sports.<sport>.min_ticks_floor, floors.min_games_per_threshold, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].threshold, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].n_games_total, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].n_games_decided, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].decided_frac_of_games, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].masked_below_floor, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].decided_clock_p25, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].decided_clock_median, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].decided_clock_p75.