Measurement / Blowout timing

Lasting leads by threshold.

A threshold becomes permanent at the first recorded score tick from which the margin stays at or above that threshold through the last recorded score tick. This retrospective label is not predictable at the time. The artifact does not record whether that final tick is a complete final score.

How to read the panels

Incidence reports the count and fraction of published games in which each threshold became permanent. Conditional timing reports the published P25, median, and P75 clock values only for those games. A usable game has at least the published parseable-tick floor, not a verified complete score. The source's decided_clockfrac_* fields divide the decided clock by the final observed clock, not verified regulation time. Masked rows retain their counts and the published mask state, but do not supply clock quartiles.

Reading trail

Read first: Read comeback rates by deficit and time remaining before treating a margin as permanent.

Next question: How do adjacent published score and clock states differ?

Read the analysis: When a lead lasts (sources regenerated)

MLB

MLB lasting-lead frequency and timing

Thresholds are expressed in runs; the reported clock is inning.

Published eligibility: 178 raw games, 174 usable games with at least 10 parseable score ticks; each threshold needs 10 decided games for clock quartiles.

Incidence

Games in which this margin became permanent, out of all published games for the sport.

Margin unit: runs | Clock field: inning

2 runs130 / 174 (74.7%)

3 runs97 / 174 (55.7%)

4 runs74 / 174 (42.5%)

5 runs55 / 174 (31.6%)

Conditional timing

P25, median, and P75 of the clock only among games where the threshold became permanent.

Margin unit: runs | Clock field: inning

2 runs3.50 inning / 5 inning / 7 inning

3 runs4 inning / 6 inning / 7.50 inning

4 runs4.13 inning / 6.50 inning / 7.50 inning

5 runs4 inning / 6 inning / 7.50 inning

Timing bars are scaled separately by sport. Innings and minutes are not combined.

2 runs

Conditional support 130 / 174

p25: 3.50 inning
median: 5 inning
p75: 7 inning

3 runs

Conditional support 97 / 174

p25: 4 inning
median: 6 inning
p75: 7.50 inning

4 runs

Conditional support 74 / 174

p25: 4.13 inning
median: 6.50 inning
p75: 7.50 inning

5 runs

Conditional support 55 / 174

p25: 4 inning
median: 6 inning
p75: 7.50 inning

public/data/showcase/blowout_dynamics.jsonDate not published.n not published

International soccer

International soccer lasting-lead frequency and timing

Thresholds are expressed in goals; the reported clock is minute.

Published eligibility: 27 raw games, 26 usable games with at least 10 parseable score ticks; each threshold needs 10 decided games for clock quartiles.

Incidence

Games in which this margin became permanent, out of all published games for the sport.

Margin unit: goals | Clock field: minute

1 goals12 / 26 (46.2%)

2 goals3 / 26 (11.5%)Below the published minimum of 10 decided games.

3 goals0 / 26 (0.0%)Below the published minimum of 10 decided games.

Conditional timing

P25, median, and P75 of the clock only among games where the threshold became permanent.

Margin unit: goals | Clock field: minute

1 goals21.25 minute / 37 minute / 53.50 minute

2 goalsBelow the published minimum of 10 decided games.

3 goalsBelow the published minimum of 10 decided games.

Timing bars are scaled separately by sport. Innings and minutes are not combined.

1 goals

Conditional support 12 / 26

p25: 21.25 minute
median: 37 minute
p75: 53.50 minute

2 goals

Conditional support 3 / 26

p25: Not published
median: Not published
p75: Not published

Below the published minimum of 10 decided games.

3 goals

Conditional support 0 / 26

p25: Not published
median: Not published
p75: Not published

Below the published minimum of 10 decided games.

public/data/showcase/blowout_dynamics.jsonDate not published.n not published

Source fields: public/data/showcase/blowout_dynamics.json -> sports.<sport>.unit, sports.<sport>.clock_field, sports.<sport>.n_games_raw, sports.<sport>.n_games_usable, sports.<sport>.min_ticks_floor, floors.min_games_per_threshold, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].threshold, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].n_games_total, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].n_games_decided, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].decided_frac_of_games, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].masked_below_floor, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].decided_clock_p25, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].decided_clock_median, sports.<sport>.thresholds[].decided_clock_p75.